TSV Hartberg 1-1 Red Bull Salzburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates TSV Hartberg at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 15 as TSV Hartberg welcome Red Bull Salzburg to PROfertil ARENA. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 November 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, TSV Hartberg stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
TSV Hartberg's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at PROfertil ARENA this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Red Bull Salzburg have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Red Bull Salzburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Red Bull Salzburg's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: TSV Hartberg 1.50 PPG, Red Bull Salzburg 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The previous 4 encounters between these sides heavily favour Red Bull Salzburg, who boast 4 victories compared to 0 for TSV Hartberg.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2024, ended 1–5 with Red Bull Salzburg winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Red Bull Salzburg have won 4 of 4 previous encounters, and at 5.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
TSV Hartberg trading profile (44 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Red Bull Salzburg trading profile (44 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 61% versus Red Bull Salzburg 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 61% | Red Bull Salzburg 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.47 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.922 / defence 0.955 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 0.799 / defence 1.038. League average goals — home 1.531 / away 1.066. Data: 35 TSV Hartberg games / 34 Red Bull Salzburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 52% | Draw 27% | Red Bull Salzburg 21%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Red Bull Salzburg 4.76. TSV Hartberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates TSV Hartberg as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.28 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 5.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: TSV Hartberg 70% | Red Bull Salzburg 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: PROfertil ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Nov 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 52% | Draw 27% | Red Bull Salzburg 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 43% | xG TSV Hartberg 1.47 / Red Bull Salzburg 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 0.922 / def 0.955 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 0.799 / def 1.038 | league avg home 1.531 / away 1.066 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (52%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Red Bull Salzburg xG
43%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 30 November 2024 at PROfertil ARENA.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg?
TSV Hartberg 1 - 1 Red Bull Salzburg.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg being played?
The match is being played at PROfertil ARENA.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 52% chance of winning, Red Bull Salzburg a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg?
Record (4 meetings): TSV Hartberg 0W | Draws 0 | Red Bull Salzburg 4W.
What form are TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg in?
TSV Hartberg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Red Bull Salzburg (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates TSV Hartberg's attack at 0.92x the league average against Red Bull Salzburg's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Red Bull Salzburg's attack versus TSV Hartberg's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.4%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
52%
1.91
27%
3.67
21%
4.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
2.28
0.81
Red Bull Salzburg xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
4.86
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
23%
4.33
Win to Nil
23%
4.32
5%
21.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 8.3 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 12.2 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 8.9 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 0.81 for Red Bull Salzburg, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
TSV Hartberg come into this having played 44 games, going 15W 11D 18L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-L. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Red Bull Salzburg sit at 1.93 PPG from 44 outings (25W 10D 9L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Red Bull Salzburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Red Bull Salzburg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of TSV Hartberg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
TSV Hartberg's home form reads 9W 5D 9L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.39 PPG return.
Away from home, Red Bull Salzburg have taken 1.70 points per game from 23 outings (11W 6D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Red Bull Salzburg are on 2.05 scored and 1.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: TSV Hartberg have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Red Bull Salzburg in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Blended
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 15W 11D 18L in their last 44 games (1.27 PPG), while Red Bull Salzburg have gone 25W 10D 9L in their last 44 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or Red Bull Salzburg away?
Red Bull Salzburg's away record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 1.39 PPG; Red Bull Salzburg away: 1.70 PPG.
Have TSV Hartberg or Red Bull Salzburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
TSV Hartberg have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Red Bull Salzburg in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Aug 2023, when Red Bull Salzburg won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
TSV Hartberg's record when hosting Red Bull Salzburg specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
TSV Hartberg
2
Draws
7
Red Bull Salzburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg?
From 10 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 1, Red Bull Salzburg have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Red Bull Salzburg 1-3 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg?
Red Bull Salzburg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Red Bull Salzburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 56%, Red Bull Salzburg 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (TSV Hartberg) and 48% (Red Bull Salzburg).
On the defensive side: TSV Hartberg keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Red Bull Salzburg in 44%; Red Bull Salzburg in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Red Bull Salzburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play Red Bull Salzburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of TSV Hartberg's recent matches and 44% of Red Bull Salzburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of TSV Hartberg's recent games and 48% of Red Bull Salzburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Red Bull Salzburg in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at PROfertil ARENA, Regular Season - 15, as TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.47 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 0.81 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.92 / defence 0.95 against Red Bull Salzburg attack 0.80 / defence 1.04, drawn from 35/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 52% | Draw 27% | Red Bull Salzburg 21%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 61%, Red Bull Salzburg 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (44 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (44 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Red Bull Salzburg arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.