TSV Hartberg 2-1 FC BW Linz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates TSV Hartberg at 55% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as TSV Hartberg face FC BW Linz.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC BW Linz make the trip to PROfertil ARENA to face TSV Hartberg in Bundesliga (matchday 11). The match kicks off on Saturday 26 October 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Current Form
TSV Hartberg's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
TSV Hartberg's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC BW Linz (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, FC BW Linz have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for TSV Hartberg against 1.40 for FC BW Linz. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from TSV Hartberg's last 10 home games and FC BW Linz's last 10 away games) — TSV Hartberg have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, FC BW Linz in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, TSV Hartberg edge it 1 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 5.5 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 5 Nov 2023, ended TSV Hartberg 3–2 FC BW Linz — a TSV Hartberg win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
TSV Hartberg half-time and goal-timing data (last 42 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
FC BW Linz half-time and goal-timing data (last 42 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 60% versus FC BW Linz 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 62% | FC BW Linz 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.70 xG and FC BW Linz 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.877 / defence 0.812 | FC BW Linz attack 0.969 / defence 1.216. League average goals — home 1.598 / away 1.210. FC BW Linz's defence rating of 1.216 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing TSV Hartberg's projected output up. Data: built from TSV Hartberg's last 31 games and FC BW Linz's last 32.
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 55% | Draw 24% | FC BW Linz 21%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | FC BW Linz 4.76. The model has a clear lean to TSV Hartberg (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is TSV Hartberg at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: TSV Hartberg 70% (last 10 home games) | FC BW Linz 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs FC BW Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 11 | Venue: PROfertil ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 26 October 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 55% | Draw 24% | FC BW Linz 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG TSV Hartberg 1.70 / FC BW Linz 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 0.877 / def 0.812 | FC BW Linz attack 0.969 / def 1.216 | league avg home 1.598 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
0.95
FC BW Linz xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ TSV Hartberg vs FC BW Linz FAQs
What time does TSV Hartberg vs FC BW Linz kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs FC BW Linz kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 26 October 2024 at PROfertil ARENA.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs FC BW Linz?
TSV Hartberg 2 - 1 FC BW Linz.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs FC BW Linz being played?
The match is being played at PROfertil ARENA.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs FC BW Linz part of?
TSV Hartberg vs FC BW Linz is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 11) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs FC BW Linz?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 55% chance of winning, FC BW Linz a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs FC BW Linz?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both TSV Hartberg and FC BW Linz will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will TSV Hartberg vs FC BW Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
TSV Hartberg's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against FC BW Linz's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.70. Flip it around — FC BW Linz's attack (0.97x) against TSV Hartberg's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from TSV Hartberg's last 31 games and FC BW Linz's last 32 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 2-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
55%
1.82
24%
4.17
21%
4.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
2.66
0.95
FC BW Linz xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
4.76
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
18%
5.49
Win to Nil
21%
4.71
4%
26.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.0 | 11.4 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ TSV Hartberg vs FC BW Linz Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs FC BW Linz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and FC BW Linz expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 0.95 for FC BW Linz, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs FC BW Linz?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
TSV Hartberg's recent record stands at 15W 11D 16L from 42 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-L in the last five.
FC BW Linz, meanwhile, have gone 11W 13D 18L across 42 games — 1.10 PPG, with W-W-L-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for TSV Hartberg against 1.10 for FC BW Linz. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, TSV Hartberg have managed 8W 5D 8L from their last 21 home games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC BW Linz's away record stands at 4W 5D 12L across their last 21 away games, a 0.81 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, TSV Hartberg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; FC BW Linz are on 1.07 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 42 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Blended
FC BW Linz
Blended
TSV Hartberg (Home) vs FC BW Linz (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
TSV Hartberg
Blended
FC BW Linz
Blended
❓ TSV Hartberg vs FC BW Linz Form FAQs
What form are TSV Hartberg and FC BW Linz in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 15W 11D 16L in their last 42 games (1.33 PPG), while FC BW Linz have gone 11W 13D 18L in their last 42 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or FC BW Linz away?
TSV Hartberg's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 1.38 PPG; FC BW Linz away: 0.81 PPG.
Have TSV Hartberg or FC BW Linz been keeping clean sheets recently?
TSV Hartberg have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, FC BW Linz in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 8 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC BW Linz won FC BW Linz 4-1 TSV Hartberg on 16 Mar 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, TSV Hartberg have gone 2W 1D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FC BW Linz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
TSV Hartberg
2
Draws
1
FC BW Linz
Recent Meetings
❓ TSV Hartberg vs FC BW Linz H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and FC BW Linz?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, TSV Hartberg have won 3, FC BW Linz have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and FC BW Linz last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 March 2026: TSV Hartberg 1-1 FC BW Linz.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and FC BW Linz?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
FC BW Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 52%, FC BW Linz 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (TSV Hartberg) and 48% (FC BW Linz).
On the defensive side: TSV Hartberg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; FC BW Linz in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / FC BW Linz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ TSV Hartberg vs FC BW Linz Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in TSV Hartberg and FC BW Linz matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of TSV Hartberg's recent matches and 52% of FC BW Linz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are TSV Hartberg and FC BW Linz matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of TSV Hartberg's recent games and 48% of FC BW Linz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do TSV Hartberg and FC BW Linz matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of TSV Hartberg's recent matches and 76% of FC BW Linz's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as TSV Hartberg edge out FC BW Linz 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
TSV Hartberg beat FC BW Linz 2-1 at PROfertil ARENA, Regular Season - 11, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.70 xG and FC BW Linz 0.95 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.88 / defence 0.81 against FC BW Linz attack 0.97 / defence 1.22, drawn from 31/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 55% | Draw 24% | FC BW Linz 21%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 62%, FC BW Linz 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
FC BW Linz's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — TSV Hartberg 1.33 PPG, FC BW Linz 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the TSV Hartberg win broke the near-deadlock. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.