Austria Vienna 2-1 FC BW Linz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Austria Vienna (68%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Austria Vienna face FC BW Linz.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 12 as Austria Vienna welcome FC BW Linz to Generali Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 3 November 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Austria Vienna — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: D L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Austria Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Austria Vienna at Generali Arena this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, FC BW Linz have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC BW Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC BW Linz away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Austria Vienna have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Austria Vienna have won 3, FC BW Linz 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Aug 2024, ended 0–1 with FC BW Linz winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Austria Vienna trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
FC BW Linz trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Vienna 46% versus FC BW Linz 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Vienna 49% | FC BW Linz 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Vienna 2.42 xG and FC BW Linz 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Vienna attack 1.273 / defence 0.891 | FC BW Linz attack 1.009 / defence 1.251. League average goals — home 1.519 / away 1.111. Austria Vienna carry an above-average attack strength of 1.273 — their λ of 2.42 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. FC BW Linz bring a strong defensive rating of 1.251 — this is suppressing Austria Vienna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Austria Vienna games / 33 FC BW Linz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Vienna 68% | Draw 19% | FC BW Linz 13%. Fair-value odds: Austria Vienna 1.47 | Draw 5.26 | FC BW Linz 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Austria Vienna (68%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Austria Vienna at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.42 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Austria Vienna 70% | FC BW Linz 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Vienna vs FC BW Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Generali Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Nov 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Vienna 68% | Draw 19% | FC BW Linz 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 58% | xG Austria Vienna 2.42 / FC BW Linz 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Vienna attack 1.273 / def 0.891 | FC BW Linz attack 1.009 / def 1.251 | league avg home 1.519 / away 1.111 • Poisson stance: Austria Vienna (68%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.42
Austria Vienna xG
Expected Goals
1.00
FC BW Linz xG
58%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Vienna vs FC BW Linz kick off?
Austria Vienna vs FC BW Linz kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 3 November 2024 at Generali Arena.
What was the final score in Austria Vienna vs FC BW Linz?
Austria Vienna 2 - 1 FC BW Linz.
Where is Austria Vienna vs FC BW Linz being played?
The match is being played at Generali Arena.
What competition is Austria Vienna vs FC BW Linz part of?
Austria Vienna vs FC BW Linz is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Vienna vs FC BW Linz?
Our statistical model gives Austria Vienna a 68% chance of winning, FC BW Linz a 13% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Austria Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Vienna vs FC BW Linz?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Austria Vienna and FC BW Linz will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Vienna vs FC BW Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and FC BW Linz?
Record (5 meetings): Austria Vienna 3W | Draws 1 | FC BW Linz 1W.
What form are Austria Vienna and FC BW Linz in?
Austria Vienna (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. FC BW Linz (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Austria Vienna vs FC BW Linz?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Austria Vienna's attack rating (1.27) and FC BW Linz's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 2.42 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC BW Linz's attack versus Austria Vienna's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Vienna Win
68%
1.47
19%
5.23
13%
7.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.42
Austria Vienna xG
Total xG
3.42
1.00
FC BW Linz xG
1.47
68%
Home win
5.23
19%
Draw
7.70
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
9%
11.25
Win to Nil
25%
4.00
1%
86.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.9 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Vienna vs FC BW Linz?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Austria Vienna and FC BW Linz expected to score?
The model projects 2.42 expected goals for Austria Vienna and 1.00 for FC BW Linz, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Vienna vs FC BW Linz?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 43 outings, Austria Vienna have picked up 1.63 PPG on a 19W 13D 11L record — D-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Austria Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC BW Linz's form line: 11W 13D 19L from 43 games, 1.07 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-L. The sample for FC BW Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Austria Vienna are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC BW Linz.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Austria Vienna have posted 2.00 PPG from 21 outings (11W 9D 1L).
On the road, FC BW Linz have gone 4W 5D 12L from 21 away games — 0.81 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Austria Vienna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Austria Vienna are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; FC BW Linz are on 1.07 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Vienna
Blended
FC BW Linz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Vienna and FC BW Linz in coming into this match?
Austria Vienna have gone 19W 13D 11L in their last 43 games (1.63 PPG), while FC BW Linz have gone 11W 13D 19L in their last 43 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Vienna at home or FC BW Linz away?
Austria Vienna's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Vienna at home: 2.00 PPG; FC BW Linz away: 0.81 PPG.
Have Austria Vienna or FC BW Linz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Austria Vienna have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, FC BW Linz in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Austria Vienna and FC BW Linz runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Oct 2023, when Austria Vienna won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Austria Vienna's record when hosting FC BW Linz specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Austria Vienna
2
Draws
2
FC BW Linz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and FC BW Linz?
From 10 meetings on record, Austria Vienna have won 6, FC BW Linz have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Austria Vienna and FC BW Linz last play each other?
They last met on 22 November 2025, when FC BW Linz 2-3 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Austria Vienna and FC BW Linz?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Austria Vienna see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
FC BW Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Vienna 48%, FC BW Linz 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Austria Vienna) and 48% (FC BW Linz).
On the defensive side: Austria Vienna keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Austria Vienna have failed to score in 29% of games; FC BW Linz in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Vienna home games / FC BW Linz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Vienna play FC BW Linz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Austria Vienna's recent matches and 52% of FC BW Linz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Austria Vienna vs FC BW Linz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Austria Vienna's recent games and 48% of FC BW Linz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Austria Vienna and FC BW Linz tend to score early?
Austria Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, FC BW Linz in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Austria Vienna edge out FC BW Linz 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Vienna beat FC BW Linz 2-1 at Generali Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Vienna 2.42 xG and FC BW Linz 1.00 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Vienna attack 1.27 / defence 0.89 against FC BW Linz attack 1.01 / defence 1.25, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Vienna 68% | Draw 19% | FC BW Linz 13%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 68%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Vienna 49%, FC BW Linz 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Vienna's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
FC BW Linz's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Austria Vienna arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.07. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.