SCR Altach 1-1 FC BW Linz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SCR Altach at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC BW Linz make the trip to CASHPOINT Arena to face SCR Altach in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Saturday 10 February 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
SCR Altach (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SCR Altach's home record at CASHPOINT Arena: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
FC BW Linz's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for FC BW Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC BW Linz's away record: 2W 0D 6L from 8 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.75 PPG). Away from home they average 1.12 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for SCR Altach against 1.20 for FC BW Linz. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: SCR Altach 0W, FC BW Linz 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
SCR Altach — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
FC BW Linz — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 29% versus FC BW Linz 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 41% | FC BW Linz 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 1.54 xG and FC BW Linz 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.913 / defence 0.917 | FC BW Linz attack 0.873 / defence 1.318. League average goals — home 1.280 / away 1.188. FC BW Linz bring a strong defensive rating of 1.318 — this is suppressing SCR Altach's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 39 SCR Altach games / 17 FC BW Linz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SCR Altach 51% | Draw 26% | FC BW Linz 23%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | FC BW Linz 4.35. SCR Altach hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SCR Altach as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SCR Altach if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SCR Altach 30% | FC BW Linz 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: CASHPOINT Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Feb 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SCR Altach 51% | Draw 26% | FC BW Linz 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 48% | xG SCR Altach 1.54 / FC BW Linz 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: SCR Altach attack 0.913 / def 0.917 | FC BW Linz attack 0.873 / def 1.318 | league avg home 1.280 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: SCR Altach (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
SCR Altach xG
Expected Goals
0.95
FC BW Linz xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz kick off?
SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 10 February 2024 at CASHPOINT Arena.
What was the final score in SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz?
SCR Altach 1 - 1 FC BW Linz.
Where is SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz being played?
The match is being played at CASHPOINT Arena.
What competition is SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz part of?
SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz?
Our statistical model gives SCR Altach a 51% chance of winning, FC BW Linz a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making SCR Altach the favourite.
Will both teams score in SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both SCR Altach and FC BW Linz will score (BTTS).
Will SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and FC BW Linz?
Record (1 meetings): SCR Altach 0W | Draws 1 | FC BW Linz 0W.
What form are SCR Altach and FC BW Linz in?
SCR Altach (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. FC BW Linz (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from SCR Altach's attack rating (0.91) and FC BW Linz's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC BW Linz's attack (0.87x) against SCR Altach's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 39/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SCR Altach Win
51%
1.96
26%
3.90
23%
4.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
SCR Altach xG
Total xG
2.49
0.95
FC BW Linz xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
4.29
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
21%
4.67
Win to Nil
20%
5.07
5%
20.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 7.9 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.1 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.3 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are SCR Altach and FC BW Linz expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for SCR Altach and 0.95 for FC BW Linz, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SCR Altach come into this having played 17 games, going 4W 4D 9L for 0.94 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. The sample for SCR Altach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC BW Linz sit at 1.00 PPG from 17 outings (4W 5D 8L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for FC BW Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.94 PPG for SCR Altach against 1.00 for FC BW Linz. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
SCR Altach's home form reads 3W 1D 4L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, FC BW Linz have taken 0.75 points per game from 8 outings (2W 0D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SCR Altach come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SCR Altach are averaging 0.76 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; FC BW Linz are on 1.12 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SCR Altach have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Last 17 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SCR Altach
Blended
FC BW Linz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SCR Altach and FC BW Linz in coming into this match?
SCR Altach have gone 4W 4D 9L in their last 17 games (0.94 PPG), while FC BW Linz have gone 4W 5D 8L in their last 17 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SCR Altach at home or FC BW Linz away?
SCR Altach's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SCR Altach at home: 1.25 PPG; FC BW Linz away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC BW Linz won 3-0 on 24 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SCR Altach have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC BW Linz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
SCR Altach
3
Draws
4
FC BW Linz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and FC BW Linz?
From 10 meetings on record, SCR Altach have won 3, FC BW Linz have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SCR Altach and FC BW Linz last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when FC BW Linz 3-0 SCR Altach.
Who has won more matches between SCR Altach and FC BW Linz?
FC BW Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SCR Altach see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
FC BW Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SCR Altach 25%, FC BW Linz 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (SCR Altach) and 62% (FC BW Linz).
On the defensive side: SCR Altach keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; SCR Altach have failed to score in 50% of games; FC BW Linz in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SCR Altach home games / FC BW Linz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SCR Altach play FC BW Linz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of SCR Altach's recent matches and 50% of FC BW Linz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of SCR Altach's recent games and 62% of FC BW Linz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SCR Altach and FC BW Linz tend to score early?
SCR Altach have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, FC BW Linz in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SCR Altach and FC BW Linz share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SCR Altach and FC BW Linz finished level at 1-1 at CASHPOINT Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 1.54 xG and FC BW Linz 0.95 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 0.91 / defence 0.92 against FC BW Linz attack 0.87 / defence 1.32, drawn from 39/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 51% | Draw 26% | FC BW Linz 23%, with SCR Altach to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 41%, FC BW Linz 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SCR Altach's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did.
FC BW Linz's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SCR Altach 0.94 PPG, FC BW Linz 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC BW Linz (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.