FC BW Linz 1-2 WSG Wattens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC BW Linz at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC BW Linz vs WSG Wattens encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
WSG Wattens make the trip to Hofmann Personal Stadion to face FC BW Linz in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Sunday 10 December 2023 at 13:30 UTC.
Form
FC BW Linz (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for FC BW Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC BW Linz's home record at Hofmann Personal Stadion: 2W 5D 1L from 8 Bundesliga appearances (1.38 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Hofmann Personal Stadion.
WSG Wattens's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 0D 8L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for WSG Wattens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, WSG Wattens have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward FC BW Linz. A 0.70 PPG lead over WSG Wattens (1.30 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — FC BW Linz lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 6.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2023, ended 4–2 with FC BW Linz winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
FC BW Linz half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
WSG Wattens half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC BW Linz 44% versus WSG Wattens 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC BW Linz 44% | WSG Wattens 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC BW Linz 1.19 xG and WSG Wattens 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC BW Linz attack 0.851 / defence 0.922 | WSG Wattens attack 0.687 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.297 / away 1.198. Data: 16 FC BW Linz games / 38 WSG Wattens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC BW Linz 46% | Draw 30% | WSG Wattens 24%. Fair-value odds: FC BW Linz 2.17 | Draw 3.33 | WSG Wattens 4.17. FC BW Linz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC BW Linz are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC BW Linz if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.95 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: FC BW Linz 38% | WSG Wattens 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC BW Linz vs WSG Wattens | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Hofmann Personal Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Dec 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC BW Linz 46% | Draw 30% | WSG Wattens 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 37% | xG FC BW Linz 1.19 / WSG Wattens 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: FC BW Linz attack 0.851 / def 0.922 | WSG Wattens attack 0.687 / def 1.079 | league avg home 1.297 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: FC BW Linz (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
FC BW Linz xG
Expected Goals
0.76
WSG Wattens xG
37%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC BW Linz vs WSG Wattens kick off?
FC BW Linz vs WSG Wattens kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 10 December 2023 at Hofmann Personal Stadion.
What was the final score in FC BW Linz vs WSG Wattens?
FC BW Linz 1 - 2 WSG Wattens.
Where is FC BW Linz vs WSG Wattens being played?
The match is being played at Hofmann Personal Stadion.
What competition is FC BW Linz vs WSG Wattens part of?
FC BW Linz vs WSG Wattens is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win FC BW Linz vs WSG Wattens?
Our statistical model gives FC BW Linz a 46% chance of winning, WSG Wattens a 24% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making FC BW Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC BW Linz vs WSG Wattens?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both FC BW Linz and WSG Wattens will score (BTTS).
Will FC BW Linz vs WSG Wattens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC BW Linz and WSG Wattens?
Record (1 meetings): FC BW Linz 1W | Draws 0 | WSG Wattens 0W.
What form are FC BW Linz and WSG Wattens in?
FC BW Linz (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. WSG Wattens (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates FC BW Linz's attack at 0.85x the league average against WSG Wattens's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — WSG Wattens's attack (0.69x) against FC BW Linz's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
These ratings are built from 16/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.3%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC BW Linz Win
46%
2.17
30%
3.30
24%
4.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
FC BW Linz xG
Total xG
1.95
0.76
WSG Wattens xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
4.25
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
22%
4.63
7%
13.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 10.8 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.9 | 12.9 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.1 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC BW Linz vs WSG Wattens?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are FC BW Linz and WSG Wattens expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for FC BW Linz and 0.76 for WSG Wattens, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for FC BW Linz vs WSG Wattens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 16 outings, FC BW Linz have picked up 1.06 PPG on a 4W 5D 7L record — W-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for FC BW Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
WSG Wattens's form line: 2W 2D 12L from 16 games, 0.50 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L. The sample for WSG Wattens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, FC BW Linz are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against WSG Wattens.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, FC BW Linz have posted 1.38 PPG from 8 outings (2W 5D 1L).
On the road, WSG Wattens have gone 1W 1D 6L from 8 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC BW Linz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC BW Linz are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; WSG Wattens are on 1.00 scored and 1.94 conceded.
Last 16 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC BW Linz
Blended
WSG Wattens
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC BW Linz and WSG Wattens in coming into this match?
FC BW Linz have gone 4W 5D 7L in their last 16 games (1.06 PPG), while WSG Wattens have gone 2W 2D 12L in their last 16 (0.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC BW Linz at home or WSG Wattens away?
FC BW Linz's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC BW Linz at home: 1.38 PPG; WSG Wattens away: 0.50 PPG.
Have FC BW Linz or WSG Wattens been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC BW Linz have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, WSG Wattens in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC BW Linz won 5-0 on 11 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC BW Linz have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against WSG Wattens — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC BW Linz
2
Draws
4
WSG Wattens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC BW Linz and WSG Wattens?
From 10 meetings on record, FC BW Linz have won 4, WSG Wattens have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC BW Linz and WSG Wattens last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when WSG Wattens 1-1 FC BW Linz.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC BW Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 38% (FC BW Linz) and 25% (WSG Wattens) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for FC BW Linz and 38% for WSG Wattens.
On the defensive side: FC BW Linz keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; FC BW Linz have failed to score in 38% of games; WSG Wattens in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC BW Linz home games / WSG Wattens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC BW Linz play WSG Wattens?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of FC BW Linz's recent matches and 25% of WSG Wattens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC BW Linz vs WSG Wattens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of FC BW Linz's recent games and 38% of WSG Wattens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC BW Linz and WSG Wattens tend to score early?
FC BW Linz have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, WSG Wattens in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as WSG Wattens defy the odds to beat FC BW Linz 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
WSG Wattens beat FC BW Linz 1-2 at Hofmann Personal Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC BW Linz 1.19 xG and WSG Wattens 0.76 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. WSG Wattens outscored their 0.76 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC BW Linz attack 0.85 / defence 0.92 against WSG Wattens attack 0.69 / defence 1.08, drawn from 16/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC BW Linz 46% | Draw 30% | WSG Wattens 24%, with FC BW Linz to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a WSG Wattens win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC BW Linz 44%, WSG Wattens 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC BW Linz's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
WSG Wattens's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC BW Linz arrived the stronger side — 1.06 PPG against 0.50. Form was overturned, with WSG Wattens winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.