Ried 0-2 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates TSV Hartberg at 52% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ried vs TSV Hartberg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Innviertel Arena plays host to Ried versus TSV Hartberg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Sunday 14 September 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ried have collected 1.40 PPG across 5 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 1D 2L. Last five: D L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Ried have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
TSV Hartberg (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. TSV Hartberg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
TSV Hartberg's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Ried against 1.60 for TSV Hartberg. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
TSV Hartberg hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 7 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 7 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 May 2023, ended 0–2 with TSV Hartberg winning.
It is worth noting that TSV Hartberg have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Ried — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%.
TSV Hartberg — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ried 60% and TSV Hartberg 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ried 60% | TSV Hartberg 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ried 1.36 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ried attack 0.924 / defence 1.310 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.183 / defence 1.059. League average goals — home 1.388 / away 1.284. Data: 5 Ried games / 27 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ried 26% | Draw 22% | TSV Hartberg 52%. Fair-value odds: Ried 3.85 | Draw 4.55 | TSV Hartberg 1.92. TSV Hartberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.36 / 1.99) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, TSV Hartberg are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.35 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ried 60% | TSV Hartberg 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ried vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Innviertel Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Sep 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ried 26% | Draw 22% | TSV Hartberg 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 64% | xG Ried 1.36 / TSV Hartberg 1.99 • Poisson strength factors: Ried attack 0.924 / def 1.310 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.183 / def 1.059 | league avg home 1.388 / away 1.284 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Ried xG
Expected Goals
1.99
TSV Hartberg xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ried vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Ried vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 14 September 2025 at Innviertel Arena.
What was the final score in Ried vs TSV Hartberg?
Ried 0 - 2 TSV Hartberg.
Where is Ried vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Innviertel Arena.
What competition is Ried vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Ried vs TSV Hartberg is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Ried vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Ried a 26% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 52% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ried vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Ried and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will Ried vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ried and TSV Hartberg?
Record (7 meetings): Ried 1W | Draws 2 | TSV Hartberg 4W.
What form are Ried and TSV Hartberg in?
Ried (all comps): 2W-1D-2L in 5 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Ried's attack rating (0.92) and TSV Hartberg's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — TSV Hartberg's attack (1.18x) against Ried's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.99.
These ratings are built from 5/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
26%
3.83
22%
4.60
52%
1.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
7.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Ried xG
Total xG
3.35
1.99
TSV Hartberg xG
3.83
26%
Home win
4.60
22%
Draw
1.92
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
14%
7.31
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
4%
27.96
13%
7.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ried vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Ried and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Ried and 1.99 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Ried vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ried come into this having played 5 games, going 2W 1D 2L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Ried, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, TSV Hartberg sit at 1.20 PPG from 5 outings (2W 0D 3L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Ried against 1.20 for TSV Hartberg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Ried are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.40 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ried have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; TSV Hartberg in 60%.
Last 5 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ried
Early Season
TSV Hartberg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ried and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Ried have gone 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 games (1.40 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 2W 0D 3L in their last 5 (1.20 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
TSV Hartberg go into this on the back of 7 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ried have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against TSV Hartberg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Ried
2
Draws
7
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ried and TSV Hartberg?
From 10 meetings on record, Ried have won 1, TSV Hartberg have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ried and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when TSV Hartberg 3-2 Ried.
Who has won more matches between Ried and TSV Hartberg?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ried are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ried 60%, TSV Hartberg 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Ried and 60% for TSV Hartberg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ried home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ried play TSV Hartberg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Ried's games and 60% of TSV Hartberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ried vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Ried's matches and 60% of TSV Hartberg's.
Do Ried and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
Ried have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
TSV Hartberg cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Ried.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
TSV Hartberg beat Ried 0-2 at Innviertel Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ried 1.36 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.99 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Ried fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ried attack 0.92 / defence 1.31 against TSV Hartberg attack 1.18 / defence 1.06, drawn from 5/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ried 26% | Draw 22% | TSV Hartberg 52%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ried 60%, TSV Hartberg 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ried's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ried 1.40 PPG, TSV Hartberg 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the TSV Hartberg win broke the near-deadlock. Ried managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward. TSV Hartberg conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.