Austria Vienna 1-3 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Austria Vienna at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees TSV Hartberg travel to Generali Arena to take on Austria Vienna. The game is scheduled for Sunday 24 August 2025, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Austria Vienna have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Austria Vienna have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Generali Arena, Austria Vienna have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
TSV Hartberg — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. TSV Hartberg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
TSV Hartberg away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. TSV Hartberg's 1.70 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Austria Vienna's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Austria Vienna have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 5 past contests while TSV Hartberg have managed just 0 wins.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Nov 2024, ended 1–0 with Austria Vienna winning.
The historical record gives Austria Vienna a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Austria Vienna trading profile (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
TSV Hartberg trading profile (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Vienna 54% versus TSV Hartberg 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Vienna 54% | TSV Hartberg 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Vienna 1.41 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Vienna attack 0.867 / defence 1.026 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.002 / defence 1.105. League average goals — home 1.468 / away 1.230. Data: 25 Austria Vienna games / 25 TSV Hartberg games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Austria Vienna 40% | Draw 27% | TSV Hartberg 33%. Fair-value odds: Austria Vienna 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | TSV Hartberg 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Austria Vienna dominate the H2H record, yet TSV Hartberg are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Austria Vienna as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form TSV Hartberg (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Austria Vienna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Austria Vienna 50% | TSV Hartberg 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (25 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Generali Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Aug 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Vienna 40% | Draw 27% | TSV Hartberg 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Austria Vienna 1.41 / TSV Hartberg 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Vienna attack 0.867 / def 1.026 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.002 / def 1.105 | league avg home 1.468 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: Austria Vienna (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Austria Vienna xG
Expected Goals
1.26
TSV Hartberg xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 24 August 2025 at Generali Arena.
What was the final score in Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Austria Vienna 1 - 3 TSV Hartberg.
Where is Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Generali Arena.
What competition is Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Austria Vienna a 40% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Austria Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg?
Record (5 meetings): Austria Vienna 4W | Draws 1 | TSV Hartberg 0W.
What form are Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg in?
Austria Vienna (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-D-L-L. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Austria Vienna's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against TSV Hartberg's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. The same calculation in reverse, TSV Hartberg's attack versus Austria Vienna's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (25/25 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Vienna Win
40%
2.52
27%
3.69
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Austria Vienna xG
Total xG
2.67
1.26
TSV Hartberg xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
24%
4.08
Win to Nil
11%
8.91
8%
12.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.3 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Austria Vienna and 1.26 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Austria Vienna's recent record stands at 18W 7D 10L from 35 games, a 1.74 PPG return, with W-D-D-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Austria Vienna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
TSV Hartberg, meanwhile, have gone 12W 11D 12L across 35 games — 1.34 PPG, with W-L-L-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Austria Vienna on 1.74 PPG, TSV Hartberg on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Austria Vienna have managed 10W 3D 4L from 17 games — 1.94 PPG in front of their own supporters.
TSV Hartberg's away record stands at 6W 5D 6L across 17 trips, a 1.35 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Austria Vienna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Austria Vienna are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.23 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Vienna
Early Season
TSV Hartberg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Austria Vienna have gone 18W 7D 10L in their last 35 games (1.74 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 12W 11D 12L in their last 35 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Vienna at home or TSV Hartberg away?
Austria Vienna's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Vienna at home: 1.94 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Austria Vienna have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Austria Vienna's record when hosting TSV Hartberg specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Austria Vienna
1
Draws
2
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg?
From 10 meetings on record, Austria Vienna have won 7, TSV Hartberg have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when TSV Hartberg 0-2 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Vienna 59%, TSV Hartberg 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Austria Vienna) and 47% (TSV Hartberg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: TSV Hartberg in 41%; TSV Hartberg in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Vienna home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Vienna play TSV Hartberg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Austria Vienna's recent matches and 41% of TSV Hartberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Austria Vienna's matches and 47% of TSV Hartberg's.
Do Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
Austria Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
TSV Hartberg cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Austria Vienna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
TSV Hartberg beat Austria Vienna 1-3 at Generali Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Vienna 1.41 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.26 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. TSV Hartberg outscored their 1.26 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Vienna attack 0.87 / defence 1.03 against TSV Hartberg attack 1.00 / defence 1.10, drawn from 25/25 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Austria Vienna 40% | Draw 27% | TSV Hartberg 33%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual TSV Hartberg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Vienna 54%, TSV Hartberg 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Vienna's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Austria Vienna 1.74 PPG, TSV Hartberg 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the TSV Hartberg win broke the near-deadlock. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.