Sharjah FC 4-1 Khorfakkan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sharjah FC (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sharjah FC face Khorfakkan.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sharjah FC and Khorfakkan meet at Sharjah Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Friday 15 December 2023 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
Sharjah FC (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sharjah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sharjah FC's home record at Sharjah Stadium: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sharjah Stadium.
Khorfakkan have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L W L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Khorfakkan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Khorfakkan have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Sharjah FC. A 0.70 PPG lead over Khorfakkan (1.70 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Sharjah FC, 1 for Khorfakkan and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Feb 2023, ended 0–1 with Khorfakkan winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Sharjah FC half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Khorfakkan half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sharjah FC 43% versus Khorfakkan 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sharjah FC 51% | Khorfakkan 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sharjah FC 2.10 xG and Khorfakkan 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sharjah FC attack 1.230 / defence 0.943 | Khorfakkan attack 0.760 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.682 / away 1.747. Data: 35 Sharjah FC games / 35 Khorfakkan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sharjah FC 56% | Draw 23% | Khorfakkan 21%. Fair-value odds: Sharjah FC 1.79 | Draw 4.35 | Khorfakkan 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Sharjah FC (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.36. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.36 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.10 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sharjah FC at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.36 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sharjah FC 50% | Khorfakkan 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sharjah FC vs Khorfakkan | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Sharjah Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 15 Dec 2023, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sharjah FC 56% | Draw 23% | Khorfakkan 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 64% | xG Sharjah FC 2.10 / Khorfakkan 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Sharjah FC attack 1.230 / def 0.943 | Khorfakkan attack 0.760 / def 1.017 | league avg home 1.682 / away 1.747 • Poisson stance: Sharjah FC (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
Sharjah FC xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Khorfakkan xG
64%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sharjah FC vs Khorfakkan kick off?
Sharjah FC vs Khorfakkan kicked off at 15:30 on Friday 15 December 2023 at Sharjah Stadium.
What was the final score in Sharjah FC vs Khorfakkan?
Sharjah FC 4 - 1 Khorfakkan.
Where is Sharjah FC vs Khorfakkan being played?
The match is being played at Sharjah Stadium.
What competition is Sharjah FC vs Khorfakkan part of?
Sharjah FC vs Khorfakkan is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Sharjah FC vs Khorfakkan?
Our statistical model gives Sharjah FC a 56% chance of winning, Khorfakkan a 21% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Sharjah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sharjah FC vs Khorfakkan?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Sharjah FC and Khorfakkan will score (BTTS).
Will Sharjah FC vs Khorfakkan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Khorfakkan?
Record (4 meetings): Sharjah FC 3W | Draws 0 | Khorfakkan 1W.
What form are Sharjah FC and Khorfakkan in?
Sharjah FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Khorfakkan (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sharjah FC's attack rating (1.23) and Khorfakkan's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 2.10 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Khorfakkan's attack (0.76x) against Sharjah FC's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sharjah FC Win
56%
1.79
23%
4.31
21%
4.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
2 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
Sharjah FC xG
Total xG
3.36
1.25
Khorfakkan xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
4.75
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
12%
8.19
Win to Nil
16%
6.28
3%
38.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 9.2 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.7 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sharjah FC vs Khorfakkan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Sharjah FC and Khorfakkan expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for Sharjah FC and 1.25 for Khorfakkan, a combined total of 3.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Sharjah FC vs Khorfakkan?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sharjah FC's recent record stands at 17W 9D 9L from 35 games, a 1.71 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Sharjah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Khorfakkan, meanwhile, have gone 9W 8D 18L across 35 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Khorfakkan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sharjah FC by 0.71 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Khorfakkan heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sharjah FC have managed 6W 4D 6L from 16 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Khorfakkan's away record stands at 1W 5D 10L across 16 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Khorfakkan's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sharjah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sharjah FC are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Khorfakkan are on 1.23 scored and 1.74 conceded.
Defensively: Sharjah FC have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sharjah FC
Blended
Khorfakkan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sharjah FC and Khorfakkan in coming into this match?
Sharjah FC have gone 17W 9D 9L in their last 35 games (1.71 PPG), while Khorfakkan have gone 9W 8D 18L in their last 35 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sharjah FC at home or Khorfakkan away?
Sharjah FC's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sharjah FC at home: 1.38 PPG; Khorfakkan away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Sharjah FC or Khorfakkan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sharjah FC have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Khorfakkan in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 15 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sharjah FC won 3-0 on 1 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sharjah FC have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Khorfakkan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Sharjah FC
1
Draws
1
Khorfakkan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Khorfakkan?
From 10 meetings on record, Sharjah FC have won 8, Khorfakkan have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sharjah FC and Khorfakkan last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Sharjah FC 3-1 Khorfakkan.
Who has won more matches between Sharjah FC and Khorfakkan?
Sharjah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sharjah FC 44%, Khorfakkan 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Sharjah FC) and 56% (Khorfakkan). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sharjah FC keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Khorfakkan in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sharjah FC home games / Khorfakkan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sharjah FC play Khorfakkan?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Sharjah FC's recent matches and 56% of Khorfakkan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sharjah FC vs Khorfakkan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Sharjah FC's matches and 56% of Khorfakkan's.
Do Sharjah FC and Khorfakkan tend to score early?
Sharjah FC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Khorfakkan in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sharjah FC run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Khorfakkan.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sharjah FC beat Khorfakkan 4-1 at Sharjah Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sharjah FC 2.10 xG and Khorfakkan 1.25 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Sharjah FC beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sharjah FC attack 1.23 / defence 0.94 against Khorfakkan attack 0.76 / defence 1.02, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sharjah FC 56% | Draw 23% | Khorfakkan 21%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sharjah FC 51%, Khorfakkan 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sharjah FC's trading profile (35 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Khorfakkan's trading profile (35 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sharjah FC arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.81 average — above their attacking norm. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.