Khorfakkan 1-1 Al Wahda FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Wahda FC at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Khorfakkan vs Al Wahda FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Al Wahda FC travel to Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium to take on Khorfakkan. The game is scheduled for Monday 11 May 2026, 17:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Khorfakkan — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Khorfakkan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Khorfakkan's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 games at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Wahda FC stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Wahda FC's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Khorfakkan at 1.10 PPG versus Al Wahda FC's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
Al Wahda FC have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 9 encounters against Khorfakkan's 1 victories.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Dec 2025, ended 0–1 with Al Wahda FC winning.
It is worth noting that Al Wahda FC have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Khorfakkan in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Al Wahda FC in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Khorfakkan 64% versus Al Wahda FC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khorfakkan 62% | Al Wahda FC 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khorfakkan 1.06 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khorfakkan attack 0.922 / defence 1.118 | Al Wahda FC attack 0.941 / defence 0.788. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.446. Al Wahda FC's defence strength of 0.788 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 50 Khorfakkan games / 50 Al Wahda FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khorfakkan 25% | Draw 28% | Al Wahda FC 47%. Fair-value odds: Khorfakkan 4.00 | Draw 3.57 | Al Wahda FC 2.13. Al Wahda FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Wahda FC are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Wahda FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Khorfakkan 70% | Al Wahda FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khorfakkan vs Al Wahda FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 11 May 2026, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khorfakkan 25% | Draw 28% | Al Wahda FC 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Khorfakkan 1.06 / Al Wahda FC 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Khorfakkan attack 0.922 / def 1.118 | Al Wahda FC attack 0.941 / def 0.788 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.446 • Poisson stance: Al Wahda FC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Khorfakkan xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Al Wahda FC xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khorfakkan vs Al Wahda FC kick off?
Khorfakkan vs Al Wahda FC kicked off at 17:45 on Monday 11 May 2026 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What was the final score in Khorfakkan vs Al Wahda FC?
Khorfakkan 1 - 1 Al Wahda FC.
Where is Khorfakkan vs Al Wahda FC being played?
The match is being played at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What competition is Khorfakkan vs Al Wahda FC part of?
Khorfakkan vs Al Wahda FC is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Khorfakkan vs Al Wahda FC?
Our statistical model gives Khorfakkan a 25% chance of winning, Al Wahda FC a 47% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al Wahda FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khorfakkan vs Al Wahda FC?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Khorfakkan and Al Wahda FC will score (BTTS).
Will Khorfakkan vs Al Wahda FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Al Wahda FC?
Record (9 meetings): Khorfakkan 1W | Draws 3 | Al Wahda FC 5W.
What form are Khorfakkan and Al Wahda FC in?
Khorfakkan (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-D-D-D. Al Wahda FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Khorfakkan's attack rating (0.92) and Al Wahda FC's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Wahda FC's attack versus Khorfakkan's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.9%), 1-2 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wahda FC Win
25%
3.97
28%
3.54
47%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Khorfakkan xG
Total xG
2.58
1.52
Al Wahda FC xG
3.97
25%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.15
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
22%
4.58
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
5%
18.19
16%
6.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 11.5 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.5 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khorfakkan vs Al Wahda FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Khorfakkan and Al Wahda FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Khorfakkan and 1.52 for Al Wahda FC, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Khorfakkan vs Al Wahda FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Khorfakkan come into this having played 50 games, going 15W 14D 21L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-D. The sample for Khorfakkan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Wahda FC sit at 1.74 PPG from 50 outings (23W 18D 9L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Al Wahda FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Wahda FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.56 PPG clear of Khorfakkan — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Khorfakkan's home form reads 6W 10D 8L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Wahda FC have taken 1.62 points per game from 24 outings (10W 9D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Wahda FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Khorfakkan are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Al Wahda FC are on 1.76 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Khorfakkan have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al Wahda FC in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khorfakkan
Blended
Al Wahda FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khorfakkan and Al Wahda FC in coming into this match?
Khorfakkan have gone 15W 14D 21L in their last 50 games (1.18 PPG), while Al Wahda FC have gone 23W 18D 9L in their last 50 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khorfakkan at home or Al Wahda FC away?
Al Wahda FC's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khorfakkan at home: 1.17 PPG; Al Wahda FC away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Khorfakkan or Al Wahda FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Khorfakkan have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Al Wahda FC in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 11 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Khorfakkan's record when hosting Al Wahda FC specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Khorfakkan
4
Draws
5
Al Wahda FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Al Wahda FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Khorfakkan have won 1, Al Wahda FC have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Khorfakkan and Al Wahda FC last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2026, when Khorfakkan 1-1 Al Wahda FC.
Who has won more matches between Khorfakkan and Al Wahda FC?
Al Wahda FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Al Wahda FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Khorfakkan 71%, Al Wahda FC 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Khorfakkan) and 38% (Al Wahda FC).
On the defensive side: Al Wahda FC in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khorfakkan home games / Al Wahda FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khorfakkan play Al Wahda FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Khorfakkan's games and 46% of Al Wahda FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Khorfakkan vs Al Wahda FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Khorfakkan's recent games and 38% of Al Wahda FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Khorfakkan and Al Wahda FC tend to score early?
Khorfakkan have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al Wahda FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Khorfakkan and Al Wahda FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khorfakkan and Al Wahda FC finished level at 1-1 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khorfakkan 1.06 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.52 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khorfakkan attack 0.92 / defence 1.12 against Al Wahda FC attack 0.94 / defence 0.79, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khorfakkan 25% | Draw 28% | Al Wahda FC 47%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khorfakkan 62%, Al Wahda FC 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khorfakkan's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Wahda FC arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.