Emirates Club 0-3 Al-Jazira – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Jazira at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Emirates Club vs Al-Jazira encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 17 as Emirates Club welcome Al-Jazira to Emirates Club Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 25 February 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Emirates Club have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Emirates Club, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Emirates Club at Emirates Club Stadium this season: 0W 3D 4L from 7 home games — 0.43 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.57 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game.
Al-Jazira — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al-Jazira, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Jazira away from home this season: 1W 2D 4L from 7 away games — 0.71 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.71 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Al-Jazira's 1.60 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Emirates Club's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Emirates Club, 1 for Al-Jazira and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2021, ended 2–3 with Al-Jazira winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Emirates Club trading profile (15 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al-Jazira trading profile (15 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Emirates Club 60% versus Al-Jazira 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emirates Club 60% | Al-Jazira 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emirates Club 0.96 xG and Al-Jazira 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emirates Club attack 0.747 / defence 1.409 | Al-Jazira attack 0.866 / defence 1.152. League average goals — home 1.117 / away 1.179. Emirates Club's attack strength of 0.747 is below the league average — the 0.96 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 16 Emirates Club games / 15 Al-Jazira games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Emirates Club 24% | Draw 29% | Al-Jazira 47%. Fair-value odds: Emirates Club 4.17 | Draw 3.45 | Al-Jazira 2.13. Al-Jazira hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Jazira as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Jazira offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Emirates Club 43% | Al-Jazira 57%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emirates Club vs Al-Jazira | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Emirates Club Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 25 Feb 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emirates Club 24% | Draw 29% | Al-Jazira 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Emirates Club 0.96 / Al-Jazira 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Emirates Club attack 0.747 / def 1.409 | Al-Jazira attack 0.866 / def 1.152 | league avg home 1.117 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Al-Jazira (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Emirates Club xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Al-Jazira xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emirates Club vs Al-Jazira kick off?
Emirates Club vs Al-Jazira kicked off at 13:30 on Friday 25 February 2022 at Emirates Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Emirates Club vs Al-Jazira?
Emirates Club 0 - 3 Al-Jazira.
Where is Emirates Club vs Al-Jazira being played?
The match is being played at Emirates Club Stadium.
What competition is Emirates Club vs Al-Jazira part of?
Emirates Club vs Al-Jazira is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Emirates Club vs Al-Jazira?
Our statistical model gives Emirates Club a 24% chance of winning, Al-Jazira a 47% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al-Jazira the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emirates Club vs Al-Jazira?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Emirates Club and Al-Jazira will score (BTTS).
Will Emirates Club vs Al-Jazira have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emirates Club and Al-Jazira?
Record (1 meetings): Emirates Club 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Jazira 1W.
What form are Emirates Club and Al-Jazira in?
Emirates Club (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. Al-Jazira (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Emirates Club's attack rating (0.75) and Al-Jazira's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.96 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Jazira's attack versus Emirates Club's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.4%), 0-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Jazira Win
24%
4.13
29%
3.49
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Emirates Club xG
Total xG
2.40
1.44
Al-Jazira xG
4.13
24%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
24%
4.21
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
6%
17.39
18%
5.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 13.0 | 9.4 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.0 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emirates Club vs Al-Jazira?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Emirates Club and Al-Jazira expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Emirates Club and 1.44 for Al-Jazira, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Emirates Club vs Al-Jazira?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Emirates Club come into this having played 15 games, going 1W 4D 10L for 0.47 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-D. The sample for Emirates Club is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Jazira sit at 1.73 PPG from 15 outings (8W 2D 5L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Al-Jazira is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Jazira carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.26 PPG clear of Emirates Club — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Emirates Club's home form reads 0W 3D 3L across 6 games on their own ground, a 0.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Jazira have taken 0.67 points per game from 6 outings (1W 1D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.73 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Jazira's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Emirates Club are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 2.13 conceded per game recently; Al-Jazira are on 1.67 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Emirates Club have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Jazira in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emirates Club
Blended
Al-Jazira
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emirates Club and Al-Jazira in coming into this match?
Emirates Club have gone 1W 4D 10L in their last 15 games (0.47 PPG), while Al-Jazira have gone 8W 2D 5L in their last 15 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emirates Club at home or Al-Jazira away?
Al-Jazira's away record (0.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emirates Club at home: 0.50 PPG; Al-Jazira away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Emirates Club or Al-Jazira been keeping clean sheets recently?
Emirates Club have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Al-Jazira in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Jazira have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Feb 2022, when Al-Jazira won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Emirates Club's record when hosting Al-Jazira specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Emirates Club
0
Draws
4
Al-Jazira
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emirates Club and Al-Jazira?
From 4 meetings on record, Emirates Club have won 0, Al-Jazira have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Emirates Club and Al-Jazira last play each other?
They last met on 20 May 2024, when Al-Jazira 2-0 Emirates Club.
Who has won more matches between Emirates Club and Al-Jazira?
Al-Jazira have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Emirates Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Al-Jazira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emirates Club 50%, Al-Jazira 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Emirates Club) and 67% (Al-Jazira). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Emirates Club have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emirates Club home games / Al-Jazira away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emirates Club play Al-Jazira?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Emirates Club's games and 67% of Al-Jazira's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Emirates Club vs Al-Jazira usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Emirates Club's matches and 67% of Al-Jazira's.
Do Emirates Club and Al-Jazira tend to score early?
Emirates Club have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Al-Jazira in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Jazira run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Emirates Club.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Jazira beat Emirates Club 0-3 at Emirates Club Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emirates Club 0.96 xG and Al-Jazira 1.44 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Emirates Club fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Al-Jazira outscored their 1.44 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emirates Club attack 0.75 / defence 1.41 against Al-Jazira attack 0.87 / defence 1.15, drawn from 16/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emirates Club 24% | Draw 29% | Al-Jazira 47%, with Al-Jazira to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emirates Club 60%, Al-Jazira 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emirates Club's trading profile (15 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Jazira's trading profile (15 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Jazira arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 0.47. That form edge translated into the three points. Emirates Club (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.