Al-Wasl FC 0-1 Khorfakkan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Wasl FC (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Wasl FC face Khorfakkan.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Khorfakkan make the trip to Zabeel Stadium to face Al-Wasl FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Wednesday 28 January 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Al-Wasl FC (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Wasl FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Zabeel Stadium, Al-Wasl FC have gone 7W 3D 0L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Khorfakkan's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Khorfakkan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Khorfakkan's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Al-Wasl FC. A 1.30 PPG lead over Khorfakkan (2.10 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al-Wasl FC lead 4W to 2W over the last 8 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.9 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Wasl FC — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Khorfakkan — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Wasl FC 62% and Khorfakkan 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Wasl FC 62% | Khorfakkan 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Wasl FC 1.26 xG and Khorfakkan 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Wasl FC attack 0.981 / defence 0.636 | Khorfakkan attack 0.864 / defence 0.974. League average goals — home 1.323 / away 1.332. Al-Wasl FC's defence rating of 0.636 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 39 Al-Wasl FC games / 39 Khorfakkan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Wasl FC 49% | Draw 29% | Khorfakkan 22%. Fair-value odds: Al-Wasl FC 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | Khorfakkan 4.55. Al-Wasl FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Wasl FC as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Wasl FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.00 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Wasl FC 60% | Khorfakkan 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Wasl FC vs Khorfakkan | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Zabeel Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Jan 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Wasl FC 49% | Draw 29% | Khorfakkan 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 37% | xG Al-Wasl FC 1.26 / Khorfakkan 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Wasl FC attack 0.981 / def 0.636 | Khorfakkan attack 0.864 / def 0.974 | league avg home 1.323 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Al-Wasl FC (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Al-Wasl FC xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Khorfakkan xG
37%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Wasl FC vs Khorfakkan kick off?
Al-Wasl FC vs Khorfakkan kicked off at 16:00 on Wednesday 28 January 2026 at Zabeel Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Wasl FC vs Khorfakkan?
Al-Wasl FC 0 - 1 Khorfakkan.
Where is Al-Wasl FC vs Khorfakkan being played?
The match is being played at Zabeel Stadium.
What competition is Al-Wasl FC vs Khorfakkan part of?
Al-Wasl FC vs Khorfakkan is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Wasl FC vs Khorfakkan?
Our statistical model gives Al-Wasl FC a 49% chance of winning, Khorfakkan a 22% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al-Wasl FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Wasl FC vs Khorfakkan?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Al-Wasl FC and Khorfakkan will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Wasl FC vs Khorfakkan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Wasl FC and Khorfakkan?
Record (8 meetings): Al-Wasl FC 4W | Draws 2 | Khorfakkan 2W.
What form are Al-Wasl FC and Khorfakkan in?
Al-Wasl FC (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Khorfakkan (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Wasl FC's attack at 0.98x the league average against Khorfakkan's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Khorfakkan's attack (0.86x) against Al-Wasl FC's defence (0.64x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.2%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Wasl FC Win
49%
2.04
29%
3.40
22%
4.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Al-Wasl FC xG
Total xG
2.00
0.73
Khorfakkan xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
4.64
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.69
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
48%
2.08
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
24%
4.24
6%
16.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 9.9 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.2 | 12.6 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 7.9 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Wasl FC vs Khorfakkan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Al-Wasl FC and Khorfakkan expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Al-Wasl FC and 0.73 for Khorfakkan, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Wasl FC vs Khorfakkan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Wasl FC's recent record stands at 20W 11D 8L from 39 games, a 1.82 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Al-Wasl FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Khorfakkan, meanwhile, have gone 12W 9D 18L across 39 games — 1.15 PPG, with W-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Khorfakkan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Wasl FC by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Khorfakkan heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al-Wasl FC have managed 12W 5D 2L from 19 games — 2.16 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Khorfakkan's away record stands at 7W 1D 11L across 19 trips, a 1.16 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Wasl FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Wasl FC are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Khorfakkan are on 1.46 scored and 1.87 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Wasl FC have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Khorfakkan in 62%.
Last 39 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Wasl FC
Blended
Khorfakkan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Wasl FC and Khorfakkan in coming into this match?
Al-Wasl FC have gone 20W 11D 8L in their last 39 games (1.82 PPG), while Khorfakkan have gone 12W 9D 18L in their last 39 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Wasl FC at home or Khorfakkan away?
Al-Wasl FC's home record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Wasl FC at home: 2.16 PPG; Khorfakkan away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Al-Wasl FC or Khorfakkan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Wasl FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Khorfakkan in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 4 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Wasl FC won 1-5 on 11 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Wasl FC have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Khorfakkan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al-Wasl FC
2
Draws
3
Khorfakkan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Wasl FC and Khorfakkan?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Wasl FC have won 5, Khorfakkan have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Wasl FC and Khorfakkan last play each other?
They last met on 4 September 2026, when Al-Wasl FC 5-2 Khorfakkan.
Who has won more matches between Al-Wasl FC and Khorfakkan?
Al-Wasl FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Wasl FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Wasl FC 58%, Khorfakkan 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for Al-Wasl FC and 74% for Khorfakkan. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Wasl FC keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Khorfakkan in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Wasl FC home games / Khorfakkan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Wasl FC play Khorfakkan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Al-Wasl FC's games and 58% of Khorfakkan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Wasl FC vs Khorfakkan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Al-Wasl FC's matches and 74% of Khorfakkan's.
Do Al-Wasl FC and Khorfakkan tend to score early?
Al-Wasl FC have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Khorfakkan in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Khorfakkan defy the odds to beat Al-Wasl FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khorfakkan beat Al-Wasl FC 0-1 at Zabeel Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Wasl FC 1.26 xG and Khorfakkan 0.73 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al-Wasl FC fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Wasl FC attack 0.98 / defence 0.64 against Khorfakkan attack 0.86 / defence 0.97, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Wasl FC 49% | Draw 29% | Khorfakkan 22%, with Al-Wasl FC to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Khorfakkan win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Wasl FC 62%, Khorfakkan 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Khorfakkan's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Wasl FC arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.15. Form was overturned, with Khorfakkan winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Wasl FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.95 scoring average — below par going forward. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.