Al Wahda FC 1-0 Khorfakkan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al Wahda FC (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Wahda FC face Khorfakkan.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Khorfakkan travel to Al Nahyan Stadium to take on Al Wahda FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 December 2025, 12:50 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Wahda FC have gone 6W 4D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Wahda FC have posted 5W 4D 1L at Al Nahyan Stadium — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Khorfakkan stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Khorfakkan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Khorfakkan have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Al Wahda FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Al Wahda FC: 4 wins from 8 previous clashes against 1 for Khorfakkan, with 3 draws across those contests.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2025, ended 3–1 with Al Wahda FC winning.
The historical record gives Al Wahda FC a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al Wahda FC trading profile (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Khorfakkan trading profile (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Wahda FC 56% and Khorfakkan 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Wahda FC 59% | Khorfakkan 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wahda FC 1.72 xG and Khorfakkan 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wahda FC attack 1.277 / defence 1.047 | Khorfakkan attack 1.108 / defence 1.004. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.305. Al Wahda FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.277 — their λ of 1.72 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 34 Al Wahda FC games / 35 Khorfakkan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 43% | Draw 23% | Khorfakkan 34%. Fair-value odds: Al Wahda FC 2.33 | Draw 4.35 | Khorfakkan 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.72 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Wahda FC as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Wahda FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.23 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Wahda FC 70% | Khorfakkan 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Wahda FC vs Khorfakkan | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Al Nahyan Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Dec 2025, 12:50 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 43% | Draw 23% | Khorfakkan 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Al Wahda FC 1.72 / Khorfakkan 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Al Wahda FC attack 1.277 / def 1.047 | Khorfakkan attack 1.108 / def 1.004 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: Al Wahda FC (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Al Wahda FC xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Khorfakkan xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Wahda FC vs Khorfakkan kick off?
Al Wahda FC vs Khorfakkan kicked off at 12:50 on Sunday 28 December 2025 at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Wahda FC vs Khorfakkan?
Al Wahda FC 1 - 0 Khorfakkan.
Where is Al Wahda FC vs Khorfakkan being played?
The match is being played at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What competition is Al Wahda FC vs Khorfakkan part of?
Al Wahda FC vs Khorfakkan is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Wahda FC vs Khorfakkan?
Our statistical model gives Al Wahda FC a 43% chance of winning, Khorfakkan a 34% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al Wahda FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Wahda FC vs Khorfakkan?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Al Wahda FC and Khorfakkan will score (BTTS).
Will Al Wahda FC vs Khorfakkan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wahda FC and Khorfakkan?
Record (8 meetings): Al Wahda FC 4W | Draws 3 | Khorfakkan 1W.
What form are Al Wahda FC and Khorfakkan in?
Al Wahda FC (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Khorfakkan (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al Wahda FC's attack at 1.28x the league average against Khorfakkan's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Khorfakkan's attack versus Al Wahda FC's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wahda FC Win
43%
2.34
23%
4.32
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Al Wahda FC xG
Total xG
3.23
1.51
Khorfakkan xG
2.34
43%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.78
Clean Sheet
22%
4.54
18%
5.57
Win to Nil
9%
10.63
6%
16.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 10.3 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.8 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Wahda FC vs Khorfakkan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Al Wahda FC and Khorfakkan expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Al Wahda FC and 1.51 for Khorfakkan, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Wahda FC vs Khorfakkan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 34 outings, Al Wahda FC have picked up 1.94 PPG on a 18W 12D 4L record — W-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al Wahda FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Khorfakkan's form line: 12W 8D 14L from 34 games, 1.29 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-W. The sample for Khorfakkan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al Wahda FC are the form team by 0.65 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Khorfakkan.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al Wahda FC have posted 2.06 PPG from 16 outings (9W 6D 1L).
On the road, Khorfakkan have gone 7W 1D 8L from 16 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Wahda FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Wahda FC are averaging 1.94 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Khorfakkan are on 1.59 scored and 1.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Khorfakkan in 65%.
Defensively: Al Wahda FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Wahda FC
Blended
Khorfakkan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Wahda FC and Khorfakkan in coming into this match?
Al Wahda FC have gone 18W 12D 4L in their last 34 games (1.94 PPG), while Khorfakkan have gone 12W 8D 14L in their last 34 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Wahda FC at home or Khorfakkan away?
Al Wahda FC's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Wahda FC at home: 2.06 PPG; Khorfakkan away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Al Wahda FC or Khorfakkan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Wahda FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Khorfakkan in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Wahda FC and Khorfakkan runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 11 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al Wahda FC's record when hosting Khorfakkan specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al Wahda FC
4
Draws
1
Khorfakkan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wahda FC and Khorfakkan?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Wahda FC have won 5, Khorfakkan have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al Wahda FC and Khorfakkan last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2026, when Khorfakkan 1-1 Al Wahda FC.
Who has won more matches between Al Wahda FC and Khorfakkan?
Al Wahda FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Wahda FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al Wahda FC at 69%, Khorfakkan at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 81% for Al Wahda FC and 81% for Khorfakkan. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Wahda FC home games / Khorfakkan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Wahda FC play Khorfakkan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Al Wahda FC's games and 62% of Khorfakkan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Wahda FC vs Khorfakkan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 81% of Al Wahda FC's matches and 81% of Khorfakkan's.
Do Al Wahda FC and Khorfakkan tend to score early?
Al Wahda FC have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Khorfakkan in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Wahda FC edge out Khorfakkan 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Wahda FC beat Khorfakkan 1-0 at Al Nahyan Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wahda FC 1.72 xG and Khorfakkan 1.51 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Khorfakkan landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wahda FC attack 1.28 / defence 1.05 against Khorfakkan attack 1.11 / defence 1.00, drawn from 34/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Wahda FC 43% | Draw 23% | Khorfakkan 34%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wahda FC 59%, Khorfakkan 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Khorfakkan's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Wahda FC arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.29. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.31 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.