Al Wahda FC 3-0 Al Urooba – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al Wahda FC at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Wahda FC vs Al Urooba encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Wahda FC and Al Urooba meet at Al Nahyan Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 7 December 2024 at 12:45 UTC.
Form
Al Wahda FC (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Al Nahyan Stadium, Al Wahda FC have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al Urooba have collected 0.38 PPG across 8 Pro League outings this season: 1W 0D 7L. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.88 per game is modest, conceding 2.75 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.75 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Urooba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Urooba away from home this season: 0W 0D 3L from 3 away games — 0.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.33 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Al Wahda FC. A 1.22 PPG lead over Al Urooba (1.60 vs 0.38) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Al Wahda FC, 0 for Al Urooba and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Feb 2022, ended 4–2 with Al Wahda FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Al Wahda FC — key trading statistics (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
Al Urooba — key trading statistics (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Wahda FC 62% and Al Urooba 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Wahda FC 62% | Al Urooba 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wahda FC 2.26 xG and Al Urooba 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wahda FC attack 1.078 / defence 0.995 | Al Urooba attack 0.683 / defence 1.145. League average goals — home 1.830 / away 1.611. Data: 34 Al Wahda FC games / 8 Al Urooba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 62% | Draw 22% | Al Urooba 16%. Fair-value odds: Al Wahda FC 1.61 | Draw 4.55 | Al Urooba 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Al Wahda FC (62%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.26 / 1.09) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Wahda FC at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.35 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al Wahda FC 70% | Al Urooba 33%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Wahda FC vs Al Urooba | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Al Nahyan Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Dec 2024, 12:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 62% | Draw 22% | Al Urooba 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 61% | xG Al Wahda FC 2.26 / Al Urooba 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Al Wahda FC attack 1.078 / def 0.995 | Al Urooba attack 0.683 / def 1.145 | league avg home 1.830 / away 1.611 • Poisson stance: Al Wahda FC (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.26
Al Wahda FC xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Al Urooba xG
61%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Wahda FC vs Al Urooba kick off?
Al Wahda FC vs Al Urooba kicked off at 12:45 on Saturday 7 December 2024 at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Wahda FC vs Al Urooba?
Al Wahda FC 3 - 0 Al Urooba.
Where is Al Wahda FC vs Al Urooba being played?
The match is being played at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What competition is Al Wahda FC vs Al Urooba part of?
Al Wahda FC vs Al Urooba is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Wahda FC vs Al Urooba?
Our statistical model gives Al Wahda FC a 62% chance of winning, Al Urooba a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al Wahda FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Wahda FC vs Al Urooba?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Al Wahda FC and Al Urooba will score (BTTS).
Will Al Wahda FC vs Al Urooba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wahda FC and Al Urooba?
Record (2 meetings): Al Wahda FC 2W | Draws 0 | Al Urooba 0W.
What form are Al Wahda FC and Al Urooba in?
Al Wahda FC (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-D-D. Al Urooba (all comps): 1W-0D-7L in 8 | 0.38 PPG | GF 0.88 / GA 2.75 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al Wahda FC's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Al Urooba's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.26. Flip it around — Al Urooba's attack (0.68x) against Al Wahda FC's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 34/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wahda FC Win
62%
1.61
22%
4.53
16%
6.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.9%
Home win
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.26
Al Wahda FC xG
Total xG
3.35
1.09
Al Urooba xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.53
22%
Draw
6.33
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
10%
9.56
Win to Nil
21%
4.81
2%
60.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.9 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Wahda FC vs Al Urooba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Al Wahda FC and Al Urooba expected to score?
The model projects 2.26 expected goals for Al Wahda FC and 1.09 for Al Urooba, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Wahda FC vs Al Urooba?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Wahda FC come into this having played 8 games, going 4W 3D 1L for 1.88 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-D. The sample for Al Wahda FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Urooba sit at 0.38 PPG from 8 outings (1W 0D 7L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Al Urooba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Wahda FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.50 PPG clear of Al Urooba — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Al Wahda FC's home form reads 1W 2D 0L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Urooba have taken 0.00 points per game from 3 outings (0W 0D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Wahda FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Wahda FC are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Al Urooba are on 0.88 scored and 2.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Wahda FC have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Al Urooba in 62%.
Defensively: Al Wahda FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Wahda FC
Blended
Al Urooba
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Wahda FC and Al Urooba in coming into this match?
Al Wahda FC have gone 4W 3D 1L in their last 8 games (1.88 PPG), while Al Urooba have gone 1W 0D 7L in their last 8 (0.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Wahda FC at home or Al Urooba away?
Al Wahda FC's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Wahda FC at home: 1.67 PPG; Al Urooba away: 0.00 PPG.
Have Al Wahda FC or Al Urooba been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Wahda FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Al Urooba in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Wahda FC won 0-4 on 19 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Wahda FC have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al Urooba — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Al Wahda FC
1
Draws
0
Al Urooba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wahda FC and Al Urooba?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Wahda FC have won 3, Al Urooba have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Wahda FC and Al Urooba last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2025, when Al Urooba 1-1 Al Wahda FC.
Who has won more matches between Al Wahda FC and Al Urooba?
Al Wahda FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Wahda FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Al Urooba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Al Wahda FC, 33% for Al Urooba — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Al Wahda FC and 67% for Al Urooba. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 100% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Urooba in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Wahda FC home games / Al Urooba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Wahda FC play Al Urooba?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Al Wahda FC's games and 33% of Al Urooba's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Wahda FC vs Al Urooba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Al Wahda FC's matches and 67% of Al Urooba's.
Do Al Wahda FC and Al Urooba tend to score early?
Al Wahda FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al Urooba in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al Wahda FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Al Urooba.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Wahda FC beat Al Urooba 3-0 at Al Nahyan Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wahda FC 2.26 xG and Al Urooba 1.09 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Al Urooba landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wahda FC attack 1.08 / defence 0.99 against Al Urooba attack 0.68 / defence 1.15, drawn from 34/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Wahda FC 62% | Draw 22% | Al Urooba 16%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wahda FC 62%, Al Urooba 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al Urooba's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Wahda FC arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 0.38. Form held, and they took the win. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.