Al Wahda FC 3-1 Al-Ittihad Kalba – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Al-Ittihad Kalba at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Wahda FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Al-Ittihad Kalba travel to Al Nahyan Stadium to take on Al Wahda FC. The game is scheduled for Friday 25 October 2024, 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Wahda FC stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al Wahda FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Wahda FC have posted 4W 4D 2L at Al Nahyan Stadium — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Ittihad Kalba — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Al-Ittihad Kalba have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al Wahda FC 1.70 PPG, Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al Wahda FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Al-Ittihad Kalba in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Al Wahda FC, 3 for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Apr 2024, ended 0–1 with Al-Ittihad Kalba winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Al Wahda FC in-play tendencies (30 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Al-Ittihad Kalba in-play tendencies (30 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Wahda FC 67% and Al-Ittihad Kalba 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Wahda FC 60% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wahda FC 1.35 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wahda FC attack 0.908 / defence 0.902 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.930 / defence 0.795. League average goals — home 1.874 / away 1.816. Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence strength of 0.795 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 31 Al Wahda FC games / 30 Al-Ittihad Kalba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 34% | Draw 25% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 41%. Fair-value odds: Al Wahda FC 2.94 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ittihad Kalba are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad Kalba offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Al Wahda FC 70% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Wahda FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Al Nahyan Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 25 Oct 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 34% | Draw 25% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Al Wahda FC 1.35 / Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Al Wahda FC attack 0.908 / def 0.902 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.930 / def 0.795 | league avg home 1.874 / away 1.816 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad Kalba (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Al Wahda FC xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Wahda FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kick off?
Al Wahda FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kicked off at 16:30 on Friday 25 October 2024 at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Wahda FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Al Wahda FC 3 - 1 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Where is Al Wahda FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba being played?
The match is being played at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What competition is Al Wahda FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba part of?
Al Wahda FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Wahda FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our statistical model gives Al Wahda FC a 34% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad Kalba a 41% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad Kalba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Wahda FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Al Wahda FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba will score (BTTS).
Will Al Wahda FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wahda FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Record (6 meetings): Al Wahda FC 3W | Draws 0 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 3W.
What form are Al Wahda FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba in?
Al Wahda FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Al Wahda FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al Wahda FC's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Al-Ittihad Kalba's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad Kalba's attack versus Al Wahda FC's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad Kalba Win
34%
2.96
25%
4.03
41%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Al Wahda FC xG
Total xG
2.88
1.52
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
2.96
34%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
2.41
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
22%
4.59
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
7%
13.57
11%
9.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 8.6 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.6 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.9 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Wahda FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Al Wahda FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Al Wahda FC and 1.52 for Al-Ittihad Kalba, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Wahda FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Wahda FC's recent record stands at 15W 7D 8L from 30 games, a 1.73 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ittihad Kalba, meanwhile, have gone 8W 9D 13L across 30 games — 1.10 PPG, with D-D-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al Wahda FC by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Ittihad Kalba heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al Wahda FC have managed 7W 5D 2L from 14 games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's away record stands at 5W 3D 6L across 14 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Wahda FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Wahda FC are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad Kalba are on 1.53 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Wahda FC have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Al-Ittihad Kalba in 67%.
Last 30 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Wahda FC
Early Season
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Wahda FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba in coming into this match?
Al Wahda FC have gone 15W 7D 8L in their last 30 games (1.73 PPG), while Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 8W 9D 13L in their last 30 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Wahda FC at home or Al-Ittihad Kalba away?
Al Wahda FC's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Wahda FC at home: 1.86 PPG; Al-Ittihad Kalba away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Wahda FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 9 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Al Wahda FC's record when hosting Al-Ittihad Kalba specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al Wahda FC
2
Draws
3
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wahda FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Wahda FC have won 5, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Wahda FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba last play each other?
They last met on 9 April 2026, when Al Wahda FC 2-2 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Who has won more matches between Al Wahda FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Al Wahda FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Wahda FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Al-Ittihad Kalba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al Wahda FC at 71%, Al-Ittihad Kalba at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Al Wahda FC and 71% for Al-Ittihad Kalba. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Wahda FC home games / Al-Ittihad Kalba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Wahda FC play Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Al Wahda FC's games and 71% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Wahda FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Al Wahda FC's matches and 71% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's.
Do Al Wahda FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba tend to score early?
Al Wahda FC have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad Kalba in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Wahda FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al-Ittihad Kalba.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Wahda FC beat Al-Ittihad Kalba 3-1 at Al Nahyan Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wahda FC 1.35 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.52 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Al Wahda FC beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wahda FC attack 0.91 / defence 0.90 against Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.93 / defence 0.80, drawn from 31/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Wahda FC 34% | Draw 25% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 41%, with Al-Ittihad Kalba to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Al Wahda FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wahda FC 60%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Wahda FC arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.10. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.79 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Ittihad Kalba (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.