Al-Ittihad Kalba 1-2 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Ittihad Kalba face Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium plays host to Al-Ittihad Kalba versus Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in Pro League, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Friday 11 April 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Ittihad Kalba have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ittihad Kalba have posted 4W 3D 3L at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Al-Ittihad Kalba are significantly better at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's overall Pro League record this term: 8W 2D 0L from 10 games (2.60 PPG). Last five: W W W D D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.30. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's form when playing away from home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrive in superior form — a 1.80 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 7 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Al-Ittihad Kalba goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ittihad Kalba 64% and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Ittihad Kalba 64% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad Kalba 0.92 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.913 / defence 0.959 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.171 / defence 0.696. League average goals — home 1.454 / away 1.342. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence strength of 0.696 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 46 Al-Ittihad Kalba games / 45 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 23% | Draw 26% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 51%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad Kalba 4.35 | Draw 3.85 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.96. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shabab Al Ahli Dubai if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Al-Ittihad Kalba 50% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 11 Apr 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 23% | Draw 26% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 47% | xG Al-Ittihad Kalba 0.92 / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.913 / def 0.959 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.171 / def 0.696 | league avg home 1.454 / away 1.342 • Poisson stance: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kick off?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 11 April 2025 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Al-Ittihad Kalba 1 - 2 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Where is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai being played?
The match is being played at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai part of?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad Kalba a 23% chance of winning, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 51% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Shabab Al Ahli Dubai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Al-Ittihad Kalba and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Record (7 meetings): Al-Ittihad Kalba 0W | Draws 3 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 4W.
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in?
Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Ittihad Kalba's attack rating (0.91) and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence rating (0.70), the model arrives at 0.92 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attack (1.17x) against Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 46/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.7%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Win
23%
4.32
26%
3.84
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
0 – 2
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Total xG
2.43
1.51
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
4.32
23%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
22%
4.52
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
5%
19.53
20%
4.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 13.2 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.2 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 5.7 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 1.51 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Ittihad Kalba come into this having played 45 games, going 11W 15D 19L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Al-Ittihad Kalba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai sit at 2.38 PPG from 45 outings (33W 8D 4L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.31 PPG clear of Al-Ittihad Kalba — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Al-Ittihad Kalba's home form reads 6W 7D 8L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.19 PPG return.
Away from home, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have taken 2.24 points per game from 21 outings (14W 5D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ittihad Kalba are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are on 2.56 scored and 1.04 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad Kalba have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 62%.
Last 45 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 11W 15D 19L in their last 45 games (1.07 PPG), while Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 33W 8D 4L in their last 45 (2.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's away record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home: 1.19 PPG; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away: 2.24 PPG.
Have Al-Ittihad Kalba or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 11 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won 5-1 on 11 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Al-Ittihad Kalba
4
Draws
6
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 0, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad Kalba and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2026, when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 5-1 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ittihad Kalba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad Kalba 62%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 71% for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad Kalba home games / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad Kalba play Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's games and 67% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's matches and 71% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's.
Do Al-Ittihad Kalba and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shabab Al Ahli Dubai edge out Al-Ittihad Kalba 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat Al-Ittihad Kalba 1-2 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad Kalba 0.92 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.51 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.91 / defence 0.96 against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.17 / defence 0.70, drawn from 46/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad Kalba 23% | Draw 26% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 51%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad Kalba 64%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 76%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (45 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (45 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.