Al Ain 3-1 Al-Ittihad Kalba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Ain at 54% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Ain vs Al-Ittihad Kalba encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Al-Ittihad Kalba travel to Hazza Bin Zayed Stadium to take on Al Ain. The game is scheduled for Thursday 13 February 2025, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Ain stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Ain, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Ain's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Hazza Bin Zayed Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ittihad Kalba have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad Kalba away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Al Ain) versus 1.40 (Al-Ittihad Kalba). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al Ain register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al-Ittihad Kalba in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Al Ain, 1 for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Dec 2024, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al Ain trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
Al-Ittihad Kalba trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Ain 66% and Al-Ittihad Kalba 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Ain 71% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Ain 1.85 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Ain attack 1.152 / defence 0.804 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.951 / defence 0.908. League average goals — home 1.765 / away 1.443. Data: 41 Al Ain games / 41 Al-Ittihad Kalba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Ain 54% | Draw 24% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 22%. Fair-value odds: Al Ain 1.85 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 4.55. Al Ain hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Ain are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Ain offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.95 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Ain 60% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Ain vs Al-Ittihad Kalba | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Hazza Bin Zayed Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 13 Feb 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Ain 54% | Draw 24% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 57% | xG Al Ain 1.85 / Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Al Ain attack 1.152 / def 0.804 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.951 / def 0.908 | league avg home 1.765 / away 1.443 • Poisson stance: Al Ain (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Al Ain xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Ain vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kick off?
Al Ain vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kicked off at 16:00 on Thursday 13 February 2025 at Hazza Bin Zayed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Ain vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Al Ain 3 - 1 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Where is Al Ain vs Al-Ittihad Kalba being played?
The match is being played at Hazza Bin Zayed Stadium.
What competition is Al Ain vs Al-Ittihad Kalba part of?
Al Ain vs Al-Ittihad Kalba is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Ain vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our statistical model gives Al Ain a 54% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad Kalba a 22% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al Ain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Ain vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Al Ain and Al-Ittihad Kalba will score (BTTS).
Will Al Ain vs Al-Ittihad Kalba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Ain and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Record (6 meetings): Al Ain 3W | Draws 2 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 1W.
What form are Al Ain and Al-Ittihad Kalba in?
Al Ain (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al Ain's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Al-Ittihad Kalba's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.85. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad Kalba's attack versus Al Ain's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Ain Win
54%
1.85
24%
4.18
22%
4.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Al Ain xG
Total xG
2.95
1.10
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
1.85
54%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
4.56
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
16%
6.34
Win to Nil
18%
5.56
3%
28.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 10.7 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Ain vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Al Ain and Al-Ittihad Kalba expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Al Ain and 1.10 for Al-Ittihad Kalba, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Ain vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 41 outings, Al Ain have picked up 1.73 PPG on a 21W 8D 12L record — L-L-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al Ain is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's form line: 11W 14D 16L from 41 games, 1.15 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-W. The sample for Al-Ittihad Kalba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al Ain are the form team by 0.58 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al Ain have posted 1.40 PPG from 20 outings (8W 4D 8L).
On the road, Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 5W 7D 8L from 20 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Ain are averaging 2.24 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad Kalba are on 1.56 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Ain have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; Al-Ittihad Kalba in 68%.
Last 41 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Ain
Blended
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Ain and Al-Ittihad Kalba in coming into this match?
Al Ain have gone 21W 8D 12L in their last 41 games (1.73 PPG), while Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 11W 14D 16L in their last 41 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Ain at home or Al-Ittihad Kalba away?
Al Ain's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Ain at home: 1.40 PPG; Al-Ittihad Kalba away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 4 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Al Ain have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Oct 2022, when Al Ain won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Ain's record when hosting Al-Ittihad Kalba specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Al Ain
2
Draws
1
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Ain and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Ain have won 7, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Ain and Al-Ittihad Kalba last play each other?
They last met on 4 September 2026, when Al-Ittihad Kalba 0-2 Al Ain.
Who has won more matches between Al Ain and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Al Ain have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Ain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Al-Ittihad Kalba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al Ain at 70%, Al-Ittihad Kalba at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Al Ain and 65% for Al-Ittihad Kalba. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Ain home games / Al-Ittihad Kalba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Ain play Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Al Ain's games and 70% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Ain vs Al-Ittihad Kalba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Al Ain's matches and 65% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's.
Do Al Ain and Al-Ittihad Kalba tend to score early?
Al Ain have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad Kalba in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Ain cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al-Ittihad Kalba.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Ain beat Al-Ittihad Kalba 3-1 at Hazza Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Ain 1.85 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.10 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Al Ain beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Ain attack 1.15 / defence 0.80 against Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.95 / defence 0.91, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Ain 54% | Draw 24% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 22%, with Al Ain to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Ain 71%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Ain's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Ain arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.15. Form held, and they took the win. Al Ain (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Ittihad Kalba (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.