Zorya Luhansk 1-0 Chornomorets – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chornomorets at 40%, yet the head-to-head data favours Zorya Luhansk — this Zorya Luhansk vs Chornomorets fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Livyi Bereh plays host to Zorya Luhansk versus Chornomorets in Premier League (matchday 24). Kick-off: Sunday 14 April 2024 at 14:30 UK time.
Current Form
Zorya Luhansk's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Zorya Luhansk have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Chornomorets (all games): 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Chornomorets's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record in our data favours Zorya Luhansk, who have won 3 of the 4 H2H matches we hold against Chornomorets — Chornomorets have 0 wins, with 1 draw.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 30 Sep 2023, ended Zorya Luhansk 0–0 Chornomorets — a draw.
The head-to-head data gives Zorya Luhansk an edge — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading
Zorya Luhansk half-time and goal-timing data (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Chornomorets half-time and goal-timing data (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zorya Luhansk 49% versus Chornomorets 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zorya Luhansk 63% | Chornomorets 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zorya Luhansk 1.22 xG and Chornomorets 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zorya Luhansk attack 0.950 / defence 0.920 | Chornomorets attack 1.144 / defence 1.169. League average goals — home 1.100 / away 1.310. Data: built from Zorya Luhansk's last 51 games and Chornomorets's last 52.
Result probabilities: Zorya Luhansk 33% | Draw 28% | Chornomorets 40%. Fair-value odds: Zorya Luhansk 3.07 | Draw 3.63 | Chornomorets 2.51. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Chornomorets as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chornomorets if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Zorya Luhansk 30% (last 10 home games) | Chornomorets 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zorya Luhansk vs Chornomorets | Competition: Premier League, matchday 24 | Venue: Stadion Livyi Bereh • Kick-off: Sunday 14 April 2024 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zorya Luhansk 33% | Draw 28% | Chornomorets 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Zorya Luhansk 1.22 / Chornomorets 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Zorya Luhansk attack 0.950 / def 0.920 | Chornomorets attack 1.144 / def 1.169 | league avg home 1.100 / away 1.310 • Poisson stance: Chornomorets (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Zorya Luhansk xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Chornomorets xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Zorya Luhansk vs Chornomorets FAQs
What time does Zorya Luhansk vs Chornomorets kick off?
Zorya Luhansk vs Chornomorets kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Sunday 14 April 2024 at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What was the final score in Zorya Luhansk vs Chornomorets?
Zorya Luhansk 1 - 0 Chornomorets.
Where is Zorya Luhansk vs Chornomorets being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What competition is Zorya Luhansk vs Chornomorets part of?
Zorya Luhansk vs Chornomorets is a Premier League fixture (matchday 24) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Zorya Luhansk vs Chornomorets?
Our statistical model gives Zorya Luhansk a 33% chance of winning, Chornomorets a 40% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Chornomorets the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zorya Luhansk vs Chornomorets?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Zorya Luhansk and Chornomorets will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Zorya Luhansk vs Chornomorets have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Zorya Luhansk's attack rating (0.95) and Chornomorets's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Chornomorets's attack (1.14x) against Zorya Luhansk's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from Zorya Luhansk's last 51 games and Chornomorets's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 1-2 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chornomorets Win
33%
3.07
28%
3.63
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Zorya Luhansk xG
Total xG
2.60
1.38
Chornomorets xG
3.07
33%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
29%
3.39
Win to Nil
8%
12.20
12%
8.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 10.2 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.5 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.6 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Zorya Luhansk vs Chornomorets Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Zorya Luhansk vs Chornomorets?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Zorya Luhansk and Chornomorets expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Zorya Luhansk and 1.38 for Chornomorets, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Zorya Luhansk vs Chornomorets?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Zorya Luhansk come into this having played 51 games, going 26W 12D 13L for 1.76 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-D.
On the other side, Chornomorets sit at 1.25 PPG from 51 outings (18W 10D 23L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-W across their last five.
Zorya Luhansk carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of Chornomorets — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Zorya Luhansk's home form reads 14W 5D 6L across their last 25 home games, a 1.88 PPG return.
Away from home, Chornomorets have taken 1.36 points per game from their last 25 away games (10W 4D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zorya Luhansk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Zorya Luhansk are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Chornomorets are on 1.33 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Defensively: Zorya Luhansk have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zorya Luhansk
Blended
Chornomorets
Blended
Zorya Luhansk (Home) vs Chornomorets (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Zorya Luhansk
Blended
Chornomorets
Blended
❓ Zorya Luhansk vs Chornomorets Form FAQs
What form are Zorya Luhansk and Chornomorets in coming into this match?
Zorya Luhansk have gone 26W 12D 13L in their last 51 games (1.76 PPG), while Chornomorets have gone 18W 10D 23L in their last 51 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zorya Luhansk at home or Chornomorets away?
Zorya Luhansk's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zorya Luhansk at home: 1.88 PPG; Chornomorets away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Zorya Luhansk or Chornomorets been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zorya Luhansk have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Chornomorets in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 17 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Zorya Luhansk have won the most recent 4 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Zorya Luhansk won Chornomorets 0-4 Zorya Luhansk on 18 Oct 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zorya Luhansk have gone 5W 0D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Chornomorets — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Zorya Luhansk
1
Draws
0
Chornomorets
Recent Meetings
❓ Zorya Luhansk vs Chornomorets H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Zorya Luhansk and Chornomorets?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Zorya Luhansk have won 7, Chornomorets have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Zorya Luhansk and Chornomorets last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 October 2026: Zorya Luhansk 2-1 Chornomorets.
Who has won more matches between Zorya Luhansk and Chornomorets?
Zorya Luhansk have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Zorya Luhansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zorya Luhansk 52%, Chornomorets 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Zorya Luhansk and 60% for Chornomorets. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zorya Luhansk keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zorya Luhansk home games / Chornomorets away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Zorya Luhansk vs Chornomorets Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Zorya Luhansk and Chornomorets matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Zorya Luhansk's games and 68% of Chornomorets's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Zorya Luhansk and Chornomorets matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Zorya Luhansk's matches and 60% of Chornomorets's.
Do Zorya Luhansk and Chornomorets matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Zorya Luhansk's recent matches and 76% of Chornomorets's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Zorya Luhansk defy the odds to beat Chornomorets 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zorya Luhansk beat Chornomorets 1-0 at Stadion Livyi Bereh, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zorya Luhansk 1.22 xG and Chornomorets 1.38 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Chornomorets landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zorya Luhansk attack 0.95 / defence 0.92 against Chornomorets attack 1.14 / defence 1.17, drawn from 51/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zorya Luhansk 33% | Draw 28% | Chornomorets 40%, with Chornomorets to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Zorya Luhansk win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zorya Luhansk 63%, Chornomorets 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zorya Luhansk's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Chornomorets's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Zorya Luhansk arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.25. Form held, and they took the win. Zorya Luhansk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Chornomorets (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.