Ruh Lviv 1-1 Kryvbas KR – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Kryvbas KR at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ruh Lviv vs Kryvbas KR fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 24 as Ruh Lviv welcome Kryvbas KR to Arena Lviv. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 April 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ruh Lviv stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ruh Lviv's form when playing at home: 2W 7D 1L across 10 games at Arena Lviv this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Arena Lviv this season.
Kryvbas KR — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Kryvbas KR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kryvbas KR away from home this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 away games — 2.30 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ruh Lviv 1.80 PPG, Kryvbas KR 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Ruh Lviv, 1 for Kryvbas KR and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2023, ended 3–1 with Ruh Lviv winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Ruh Lviv trading profile (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Kryvbas KR trading profile (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ruh Lviv 55% versus Kryvbas KR 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ruh Lviv 42% | Kryvbas KR 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ruh Lviv 1.06 xG and Kryvbas KR 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruh Lviv attack 0.959 / defence 0.840 | Kryvbas KR attack 1.213 / defence 0.993. League average goals — home 1.117 / away 1.338. Kryvbas KR have an above-average attack strength of 1.213 — the away xG of 1.36 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 53 Ruh Lviv games / 53 Kryvbas KR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 29% | Draw 28% | Kryvbas KR 43%. Fair-value odds: Ruh Lviv 3.45 | Draw 3.57 | Kryvbas KR 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Kryvbas KR as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kryvbas KR offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.43 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Ruh Lviv 60% | Kryvbas KR 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ruh Lviv vs Kryvbas KR | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Arena Lviv • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Apr 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 29% | Draw 28% | Kryvbas KR 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Ruh Lviv 1.06 / Kryvbas KR 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Ruh Lviv attack 0.959 / def 0.840 | Kryvbas KR attack 1.213 / def 0.993 | league avg home 1.117 / away 1.338 • Poisson stance: Kryvbas KR (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Ruh Lviv xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Kryvbas KR xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ruh Lviv vs Kryvbas KR kick off?
Ruh Lviv vs Kryvbas KR kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Arena Lviv.
What was the final score in Ruh Lviv vs Kryvbas KR?
Ruh Lviv 1 - 1 Kryvbas KR.
Where is Ruh Lviv vs Kryvbas KR being played?
The match is being played at Arena Lviv.
What competition is Ruh Lviv vs Kryvbas KR part of?
Ruh Lviv vs Kryvbas KR is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Ruh Lviv vs Kryvbas KR?
Our statistical model gives Ruh Lviv a 29% chance of winning, Kryvbas KR a 43% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Kryvbas KR the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ruh Lviv vs Kryvbas KR?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Ruh Lviv and Kryvbas KR will score (BTTS).
Will Ruh Lviv vs Kryvbas KR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Kryvbas KR?
Record (3 meetings): Ruh Lviv 2W | Draws 0 | Kryvbas KR 1W.
What form are Ruh Lviv and Kryvbas KR in?
Ruh Lviv (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Kryvbas KR (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ruh Lviv's attack rating (0.96) and Kryvbas KR's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kryvbas KR's attack versus Ruh Lviv's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kryvbas KR Win
29%
3.49
28%
3.54
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Ruh Lviv xG
Total xG
2.43
1.36
Kryvbas KR xG
3.49
29%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
26%
3.91
35%
2.90
Win to Nil
7%
13.62
15%
6.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 12.0 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.8 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ruh Lviv vs Kryvbas KR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Ruh Lviv and Kryvbas KR expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Ruh Lviv and 1.36 for Kryvbas KR, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Ruh Lviv vs Kryvbas KR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 53 outings, Ruh Lviv have picked up 1.34 PPG on a 17W 20D 16L record — W-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Ruh Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kryvbas KR's form line: 26W 10D 17L from 53 games, 1.66 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-D. The sample for Kryvbas KR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ruh Lviv on 1.34 PPG, Kryvbas KR on 1.66. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ruh Lviv have posted 1.35 PPG from 26 outings (7W 14D 5L).
On the road, Kryvbas KR have gone 11W 5D 10L from 26 away games — 1.46 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Ruh Lviv are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Kryvbas KR are on 1.26 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Kryvbas KR in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ruh Lviv
Blended
Kryvbas KR
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ruh Lviv and Kryvbas KR in coming into this match?
Ruh Lviv have gone 17W 20D 16L in their last 53 games (1.34 PPG), while Kryvbas KR have gone 26W 10D 17L in their last 53 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ruh Lviv at home or Kryvbas KR away?
Kryvbas KR's away record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ruh Lviv at home: 1.35 PPG; Kryvbas KR away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Ruh Lviv or Kryvbas KR been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ruh Lviv have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Kryvbas KR in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ruh Lviv and Kryvbas KR runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Kryvbas KR have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Apr 2026, when Kryvbas KR won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ruh Lviv's record when hosting Kryvbas KR specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Ruh Lviv
3
Draws
3
Kryvbas KR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Kryvbas KR?
From 8 meetings on record, Ruh Lviv have won 2, Kryvbas KR have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ruh Lviv and Kryvbas KR last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Kryvbas KR 3-0 Ruh Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Ruh Lviv and Kryvbas KR?
Kryvbas KR have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Kryvbas KR see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ruh Lviv 62%, Kryvbas KR 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Ruh Lviv) and 42% (Kryvbas KR).
On the defensive side: Kryvbas KR in 35%; Ruh Lviv have failed to score in 27% of games; Kryvbas KR in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ruh Lviv home games / Kryvbas KR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ruh Lviv play Kryvbas KR?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Ruh Lviv's recent matches and 38% of Kryvbas KR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ruh Lviv vs Kryvbas KR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Ruh Lviv's recent games and 42% of Kryvbas KR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ruh Lviv and Kryvbas KR tend to score early?
Ruh Lviv have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Kryvbas KR in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ruh Lviv and Kryvbas KR share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ruh Lviv and Kryvbas KR finished level at 1-1 at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 1.06 xG and Kryvbas KR 1.36 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 0.96 / defence 0.84 against Kryvbas KR attack 1.21 / defence 0.99, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 29% | Draw 28% | Kryvbas KR 43%, with Kryvbas KR to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruh Lviv 42%, Kryvbas KR 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ruh Lviv 1.34 PPG, Kryvbas KR 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.