Shakhtar Donetsk 1-0 Livyi Bereh – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Shakhtar Donetsk at 68% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shakhtar Donetsk vs Livyi Bereh encounter.

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Full Analysis

Arena Lviv plays host to Shakhtar Donetsk versus Livyi Bereh in Premier League (matchday 18). Kick-off: Monday 24 February 2025 at 16:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Shakhtar Donetsk have collected 2.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Shakhtar Donetsk at home: 8W 1D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Livyi Bereh (all games): 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L D W W. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.

Livyi Bereh's away record over their last 9 away games: 2W 2D 5L (0.89 PPG). Away from home they average 0.44 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 11% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Form favours the hosts. Shakhtar Donetsk's 2.10 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Livyi Bereh's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 1 wins for Shakhtar Donetsk, 0 for Livyi Bereh and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 1 H2H match in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 18 Aug 2024, ended Shakhtar Donetsk 1–0 Livyi Bereh — a Shakhtar Donetsk win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Shakhtar Donetsk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 21 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

Livyi Bereh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 21 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 22% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 11% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games); they fail to score in 62% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shakhtar Donetsk 52% versus Livyi Bereh 24%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shakhtar Donetsk 52% | Livyi Bereh 29%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Shakhtar Donetsk 2.02 xG and Livyi Bereh 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.642 / defence 0.952 | Livyi Bereh attack 0.717 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.183 / away 1.033. Shakhtar Donetsk carry an above-average attack rating of 1.642 — their 2.02 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Livyi Bereh's attack rating of 0.717 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.70. Data: built from Shakhtar Donetsk's last 46 games and Livyi Bereh's last 17.

Result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 68% | Draw 20% | Livyi Bereh 12%. Fair-value odds: Shakhtar Donetsk 1.46 | Draw 5.07 | Livyi Bereh 8.37. The model has a clear lean to Shakhtar Donetsk (68%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Shakhtar Donetsk as the most likely outcome at 68% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Shakhtar Donetsk 60% (last 10 home games) | Livyi Bereh 11% (last 9 away games).

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