Inhulets 0-1 Polessya – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Polessya at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Inhulets face Polessya.

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Fixture Analysis

Inhulets welcome Polessya to Tsentralnyi Stadion in Premier League (matchday 18). Kick-off is Saturday 22 February 2025 at 13:30 UK time.

Form Guide

Inhulets — last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Looking at their last 10 matches, Polessya stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Polessya's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Inhulets at 0.60 PPG versus Polessya's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Inhulets have won 0, Polessya 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 17 Aug 2024, ended Inhulets 1–1 Polessya — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Inhulets in-play and half-time data (last 16 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.

Polessya in-play and half-time data (last 16 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Inhulets 44% versus Polessya 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Inhulets 50% | Polessya 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Inhulets 0.99 xG and Polessya 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inhulets attack 0.778 / defence 1.226 | Polessya attack 1.087 / defence 1.041. League average goals — home 1.226 / away 1.077. Inhulets's attack rating of 0.778 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.99. Inhulets's defence rating of 1.226 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Polessya's projected output up. Data: built from Inhulets's last 16 games and Polessya's last 47.

Result probabilities: Inhulets 25% | Draw 29% | Polessya 46%. Fair-value odds: Inhulets 3.99 | Draw 3.49 | Polessya 2.16. Polessya hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Polessya as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Polessya offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.43 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Inhulets's last 10 games and Polessya's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Inhulets 40% (last 10 games) | Polessya 60% (last 10 away games).

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