Polessya 0-1 Ruh Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Polessya take on Ruh Lviv.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tsentralnyi Stadion plays host to Polessya versus Ruh Lviv in Premier League, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Monday 9 December 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Polessya have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Polessya, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Polessya at Tsentralnyi Stadion this season: 4W 6D 0L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Polessya are significantly better at Tsentralnyi Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Ruh Lviv (all games): 1W 7D 2L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ruh Lviv's away record: 1W 7D 2L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Polessya, 1 for Ruh Lviv and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Dec 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Polessya goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Ruh Lviv goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Polessya 56% versus Ruh Lviv 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Polessya 42% | Ruh Lviv 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Polessya 1.01 xG and Ruh Lviv 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Polessya attack 0.967 / defence 0.949 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.936 / defence 0.804. League average goals — home 1.300 / away 1.009. Data: 45 Polessya games / 45 Ruh Lviv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Polessya 35% | Draw 37% | Ruh Lviv 29%. Fair-value odds: Polessya 2.86 | Draw 2.70 | Ruh Lviv 3.45. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 29% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.91 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. This conflicts with form data: Polessya 70% | Ruh Lviv 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Polessya vs Ruh Lviv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Tsentralnyi Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 9 Dec 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Polessya 35% | Draw 37% | Ruh Lviv 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 40% | xG Polessya 1.01 / Ruh Lviv 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Polessya attack 0.967 / def 0.949 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.936 / def 0.804 | league avg home 1.300 / away 1.009 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Polessya xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Ruh Lviv xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Polessya vs Ruh Lviv kick off?
Polessya vs Ruh Lviv kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 9 December 2024 at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What was the final score in Polessya vs Ruh Lviv?
Polessya 0 - 1 Ruh Lviv.
Where is Polessya vs Ruh Lviv being played?
The match is being played at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What competition is Polessya vs Ruh Lviv part of?
Polessya vs Ruh Lviv is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Polessya vs Ruh Lviv?
Our statistical model gives Polessya a 35% chance of winning, Ruh Lviv a 29% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Polessya vs Ruh Lviv?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Polessya and Ruh Lviv will score (BTTS).
Will Polessya vs Ruh Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Polessya and Ruh Lviv?
Record (3 meetings): Polessya 0W | Draws 2 | Ruh Lviv 1W.
What form are Polessya and Ruh Lviv in?
Polessya (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Ruh Lviv (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Polessya's attack rating (0.97) and Ruh Lviv's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ruh Lviv's attack (0.94x) against Polessya's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
35%
2.89
37%
2.72
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Polessya xG
Total xG
1.91
0.90
Ruh Lviv xG
2.89
35%
Home win
2.72
37%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
14%
7.09
10%
9.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.9 | 13.3 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.5 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Polessya vs Ruh Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.6%.
How many goals are Polessya and Ruh Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Polessya and 0.90 for Ruh Lviv, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Polessya vs Ruh Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Polessya come into this having played 45 games, going 20W 14D 11L for 1.64 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-D. The sample for Polessya is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ruh Lviv sit at 1.53 PPG from 45 outings (16W 21D 8L), a run that reads D-L-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Ruh Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.64 PPG for Polessya against 1.53 for Ruh Lviv. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Polessya's home form reads 10W 9D 4L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.70 PPG return.
Away from home, Ruh Lviv have taken 1.48 points per game from 23 outings (8W 10D 5L).
Attack vs Defence
Polessya are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Ruh Lviv are on 1.40 scored and 0.93 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Ruh Lviv in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Polessya
Blended
Ruh Lviv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Polessya and Ruh Lviv in coming into this match?
Polessya have gone 20W 14D 11L in their last 45 games (1.64 PPG), while Ruh Lviv have gone 16W 21D 8L in their last 45 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Polessya at home or Ruh Lviv away?
Polessya's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Polessya at home: 1.70 PPG; Ruh Lviv away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Polessya or Ruh Lviv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Polessya have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Ruh Lviv in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 24 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Polessya have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Ruh Lviv — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Polessya
2
Draws
3
Ruh Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Polessya and Ruh Lviv?
From 6 meetings on record, Polessya have won 1, Ruh Lviv have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Polessya and Ruh Lviv last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Polessya 2-0 Ruh Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Polessya and Ruh Lviv?
Ruh Lviv have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Polessya see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 26% of those situations.
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Polessya 65%, Ruh Lviv 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Polessya) and 39% (Ruh Lviv).
On the defensive side: Ruh Lviv in 35%; Ruh Lviv in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Polessya home games / Ruh Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Polessya play Ruh Lviv?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Polessya's games and 56% of Ruh Lviv's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Polessya vs Ruh Lviv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Polessya's recent games and 39% of Ruh Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Polessya and Ruh Lviv tend to score early?
Polessya have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Ruh Lviv in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ruh Lviv defy the odds to beat Polessya 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ruh Lviv beat Polessya 0-1 at Tsentralnyi Stadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Polessya 1.01 xG and Ruh Lviv 0.90 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Polessya fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Polessya attack 0.97 / defence 0.95 against Ruh Lviv attack 0.94 / defence 0.80, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Polessya 35% | Draw 37% | Ruh Lviv 29%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Ruh Lviv win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Polessya 42%, Ruh Lviv 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Polessya's trading profile (45 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (45 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Polessya 1.64 PPG, Ruh Lviv 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ruh Lviv win broke the near-deadlock. Polessya (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.