Oleksandria 0-1 Kolos Kovalivka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kolos Kovalivka at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Oleksandria vs Kolos Kovalivka fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kolos Kovalivka make the trip to CSC Nika to face Oleksandria in Premier League, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Saturday 21 October 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Oleksandria have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Oleksandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oleksandria at CSC Nika this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Kolos Kovalivka's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 6D 2L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Kolos Kovalivka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kolos Kovalivka's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Oleksandria, 1.20 for Kolos Kovalivka — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Oleksandria, who have won 3 of the last 3 meetings against Kolos Kovalivka — a 0D 0W return for the visitors.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2023, ended 2–0 with Oleksandria winning.
The historical record gives Oleksandria a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
Oleksandria goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Kolos Kovalivka goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time; they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oleksandria 58% versus Kolos Kovalivka 25%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Oleksandria 48% | Kolos Kovalivka 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oleksandria 0.86 xG and Kolos Kovalivka 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oleksandria attack 0.895 / defence 1.344 | Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.773 / defence 0.831. League average goals — home 1.152 / away 1.167. Data: 40 Oleksandria games / 40 Kolos Kovalivka games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oleksandria 25% | Draw 32% | Kolos Kovalivka 43%. Fair-value odds: Oleksandria 4.00 | Draw 3.12 | Kolos Kovalivka 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kolos Kovalivka are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kolos Kovalivka if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.07 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Oleksandria 50% | Kolos Kovalivka 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oleksandria vs Kolos Kovalivka | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: CSC Nika • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Oct 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oleksandria 25% | Draw 32% | Kolos Kovalivka 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Oleksandria 0.86 / Kolos Kovalivka 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Oleksandria attack 0.895 / def 1.344 | Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.773 / def 0.831 | league avg home 1.152 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Kolos Kovalivka (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Oleksandria xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Kolos Kovalivka xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oleksandria vs Kolos Kovalivka kick off?
Oleksandria vs Kolos Kovalivka kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 21 October 2023 at CSC Nika.
What was the final score in Oleksandria vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Oleksandria 0 - 1 Kolos Kovalivka.
Where is Oleksandria vs Kolos Kovalivka being played?
The match is being played at CSC Nika.
What competition is Oleksandria vs Kolos Kovalivka part of?
Oleksandria vs Kolos Kovalivka is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Oleksandria vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Our statistical model gives Oleksandria a 25% chance of winning, Kolos Kovalivka a 43% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Kolos Kovalivka the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oleksandria vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Oleksandria and Kolos Kovalivka will score (BTTS).
Will Oleksandria vs Kolos Kovalivka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Kolos Kovalivka?
Record (3 meetings): Oleksandria 3W | Draws 0 | Kolos Kovalivka 0W.
What form are Oleksandria and Kolos Kovalivka in?
Oleksandria (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Kolos Kovalivka (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Oleksandria's attack rating (0.90) and Kolos Kovalivka's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 0.86 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Kolos Kovalivka's attack (0.77x) against Oleksandria's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 0-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kolos Kovalivka Win
25%
4.06
32%
3.08
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Oleksandria xG
Total xG
2.07
1.21
Kolos Kovalivka xG
4.06
25%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
42%
2.35
Win to Nil
7%
13.67
18%
5.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 15.3 | 9.3 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.1 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oleksandria vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Oleksandria and Kolos Kovalivka expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Oleksandria and 1.21 for Kolos Kovalivka, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Oleksandria vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Oleksandria's recent record stands at 12W 17D 11L from 40 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Oleksandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kolos Kovalivka, meanwhile, have gone 12W 12D 16L across 40 games — 1.20 PPG, with L-D-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for Kolos Kovalivka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Oleksandria against 1.20 for Kolos Kovalivka. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Oleksandria have managed 7W 7D 5L from 19 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kolos Kovalivka's away record stands at 4W 8D 7L across 19 trips, a 1.05 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Oleksandria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Oleksandria are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Kolos Kovalivka are on 0.72 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kolos Kovalivka in 25%.
Defensively: Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Kolos Kovalivka in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oleksandria
Blended
Kolos Kovalivka
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oleksandria and Kolos Kovalivka in coming into this match?
Oleksandria have gone 12W 17D 11L in their last 40 games (1.32 PPG), while Kolos Kovalivka have gone 12W 12D 16L in their last 40 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oleksandria at home or Kolos Kovalivka away?
Oleksandria's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oleksandria at home: 1.47 PPG; Kolos Kovalivka away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Oleksandria or Kolos Kovalivka been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Kolos Kovalivka in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Oleksandria won 4-1 on 5 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Oleksandria have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Kolos Kovalivka — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Oleksandria
2
Draws
2
Kolos Kovalivka
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Kolos Kovalivka?
From 9 meetings on record, Oleksandria have won 5, Kolos Kovalivka have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Oleksandria and Kolos Kovalivka last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Oleksandria 0-3 Kolos Kovalivka.
Who has won more matches between Oleksandria and Kolos Kovalivka?
Oleksandria have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Oleksandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Kolos Kovalivka see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oleksandria 58%, Kolos Kovalivka 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Oleksandria) and 26% (Kolos Kovalivka).
On the defensive side: Oleksandria keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Kolos Kovalivka in 42%; Kolos Kovalivka in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oleksandria home games / Kolos Kovalivka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oleksandria play Kolos Kovalivka?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Oleksandria's recent matches and 32% of Kolos Kovalivka's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Oleksandria vs Kolos Kovalivka usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Oleksandria's recent games and 26% of Kolos Kovalivka's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oleksandria and Kolos Kovalivka tend to score early?
Oleksandria have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Kolos Kovalivka in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kolos Kovalivka edge out Oleksandria 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kolos Kovalivka beat Oleksandria 0-1 at CSC Nika, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oleksandria 0.86 xG and Kolos Kovalivka 1.21 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Oleksandria fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oleksandria attack 0.90 / defence 1.34 against Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.77 / defence 0.83, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oleksandria 25% | Draw 32% | Kolos Kovalivka 43%, with Kolos Kovalivka to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oleksandria 48%, Kolos Kovalivka 28%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oleksandria's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Kolos Kovalivka's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Oleksandria 1.32 PPG, Kolos Kovalivka 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kolos Kovalivka win broke the near-deadlock. Oleksandria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward. Kolos Kovalivka (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.