FC Kharkiv 1-3 Kryvbas KR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kryvbas KR at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Kharkiv vs Kryvbas KR encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Kryvbas KR travel to Stadion Livyi Bereh to take on FC Kharkiv. The game is scheduled for Friday 20 October 2023, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Kharkiv stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Kharkiv's home record at Stadion Livyi Bereh: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Livyi Bereh. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Kryvbas KR — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Kryvbas KR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Kryvbas KR have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Kryvbas KR — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. FC Kharkiv's 30% rate and Kryvbas KR's 20% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for FC Kharkiv, 1 for Kryvbas KR and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 May 2023, ended 0–2 with Kryvbas KR winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
FC Kharkiv trading profile (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
Kryvbas KR trading profile (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (FC Kharkiv 31% | Kryvbas KR 36%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (FC Kharkiv 33% | Kryvbas KR 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Kharkiv 0.85 xG and Kryvbas KR 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Kharkiv attack 0.925 / defence 0.860 | Kryvbas KR attack 1.245 / defence 0.838. League average goals — home 1.101 / away 1.169. Kryvbas KR have an above-average attack strength of 1.245 — the away xG of 1.25 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 39 FC Kharkiv games / 40 Kryvbas KR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 24% | Draw 32% | Kryvbas KR 44%. Fair-value odds: FC Kharkiv 4.17 | Draw 3.12 | Kryvbas KR 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Kryvbas KR as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kryvbas KR offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.11 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: FC Kharkiv 30% | Kryvbas KR 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Kharkiv vs Kryvbas KR | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadion Livyi Bereh • Kick-off: Friday 20 Oct 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 24% | Draw 32% | Kryvbas KR 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG FC Kharkiv 0.85 / Kryvbas KR 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: FC Kharkiv attack 0.925 / def 0.860 | Kryvbas KR attack 1.245 / def 0.838 | league avg home 1.101 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Kryvbas KR (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
FC Kharkiv xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Kryvbas KR xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Kharkiv vs Kryvbas KR kick off?
FC Kharkiv vs Kryvbas KR kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 20 October 2023 at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What was the final score in FC Kharkiv vs Kryvbas KR?
FC Kharkiv 1 - 3 Kryvbas KR.
Where is FC Kharkiv vs Kryvbas KR being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What competition is FC Kharkiv vs Kryvbas KR part of?
FC Kharkiv vs Kryvbas KR is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win FC Kharkiv vs Kryvbas KR?
Our statistical model gives FC Kharkiv a 24% chance of winning, Kryvbas KR a 44% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Kryvbas KR the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Kharkiv vs Kryvbas KR?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both FC Kharkiv and Kryvbas KR will score (BTTS).
Will FC Kharkiv vs Kryvbas KR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Kryvbas KR?
Record (2 meetings): FC Kharkiv 1W | Draws 0 | Kryvbas KR 1W.
What form are FC Kharkiv and Kryvbas KR in?
FC Kharkiv (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Kryvbas KR (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC Kharkiv's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Kryvbas KR's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.85. The same calculation in reverse, Kryvbas KR's attack versus FC Kharkiv's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 0-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kryvbas KR Win
24%
4.18
32%
3.14
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
FC Kharkiv xG
Total xG
2.11
1.25
Kryvbas KR xG
4.18
24%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
43%
2.35
Win to Nil
7%
14.60
19%
5.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 15.2 | 9.5 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.0 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Kharkiv vs Kryvbas KR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are FC Kharkiv and Kryvbas KR expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for FC Kharkiv and 1.25 for Kryvbas KR, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Kharkiv vs Kryvbas KR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Kharkiv come into this having played 39 games, going 9W 16D 14L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-L. The sample for FC Kharkiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kryvbas KR sit at 1.56 PPG from 39 outings (18W 7D 14L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Kryvbas KR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kryvbas KR carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of FC Kharkiv — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
FC Kharkiv's home form reads 6W 6D 7L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.26 PPG return.
Away from home, Kryvbas KR have taken 1.32 points per game from 19 outings (7W 4D 8L).
The Goals Picture
FC Kharkiv are averaging 0.74 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Kryvbas KR are on 1.15 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: FC Kharkiv have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Kryvbas KR in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Kharkiv
Blended
Kryvbas KR
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Kharkiv and Kryvbas KR in coming into this match?
FC Kharkiv have gone 9W 16D 14L in their last 39 games (1.10 PPG), while Kryvbas KR have gone 18W 7D 14L in their last 39 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Kharkiv at home or Kryvbas KR away?
Kryvbas KR's away record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Kharkiv at home: 1.26 PPG; Kryvbas KR away: 1.32 PPG.
Have FC Kharkiv or Kryvbas KR been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Kharkiv have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Kryvbas KR in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Kharkiv and Kryvbas KR runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Apr 2024, when Kryvbas KR won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Kharkiv's record when hosting Kryvbas KR specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
FC Kharkiv
1
Draws
4
Kryvbas KR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Kryvbas KR?
From 6 meetings on record, FC Kharkiv have won 1, Kryvbas KR have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Kharkiv and Kryvbas KR last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when FC Kharkiv 0-0 Kryvbas KR.
Who has won more matches between FC Kharkiv and Kryvbas KR?
Kryvbas KR have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Kharkiv see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Kryvbas KR see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Kharkiv 37%, Kryvbas KR 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (FC Kharkiv) and 42% (Kryvbas KR).
On the defensive side: FC Kharkiv keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Kryvbas KR in 32%; FC Kharkiv have failed to score in 47% of games; Kryvbas KR in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Kharkiv home games / Kryvbas KR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Kharkiv play Kryvbas KR?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of FC Kharkiv's recent matches and 37% of Kryvbas KR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Kharkiv vs Kryvbas KR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of FC Kharkiv's recent games and 42% of Kryvbas KR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Kryvbas KR cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over FC Kharkiv.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kryvbas KR beat FC Kharkiv 1-3 at Stadion Livyi Bereh, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Kharkiv 0.85 xG and Kryvbas KR 1.25 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Kryvbas KR outscored their 1.25 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Kharkiv attack 0.93 / defence 0.86 against Kryvbas KR attack 1.25 / defence 0.84, drawn from 39/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Kharkiv 24% | Draw 32% | Kryvbas KR 44%, with Kryvbas KR to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Kharkiv 33%, Kryvbas KR 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Kryvbas KR arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.10. That form edge translated into the three points. FC Kharkiv (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.