Obolon'-Brovar 1-0 Ruh Lviv – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Ruh Lviv at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Obolon'-Brovar vs Ruh Lviv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ruh Lviv make the trip to Obolon Arena to face Obolon'-Brovar in Premier League, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Sunday 1 March 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
Obolon'-Brovar's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Obolon'-Brovar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Obolon Arena, Obolon'-Brovar have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Ruh Lviv (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ruh Lviv's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Ruh Lviv are 0.70 PPG clear of Obolon'-Brovar in recent Premier League fixtures (1.60 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Obolon'-Brovar have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Ruh Lviv in only 10%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Obolon'-Brovar lead 2W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2025, ended 2–1 with Obolon'-Brovar winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Obolon'-Brovar half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
Ruh Lviv half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Obolon'-Brovar 30% | Ruh Lviv 37%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Obolon'-Brovar 44% | Ruh Lviv 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Obolon'-Brovar 0.83 xG and Ruh Lviv 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.822 / defence 1.339 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.755 / defence 0.829. League average goals — home 1.222 / away 1.221. Data: 46 Obolon'-Brovar games / 47 Ruh Lviv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Obolon'-Brovar 25% | Draw 29% | Ruh Lviv 46%. Fair-value odds: Obolon'-Brovar 4.00 | Draw 3.45 | Ruh Lviv 2.17. Ruh Lviv hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ruh Lviv at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ruh Lviv if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.07 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Obolon'-Brovar 30% | Ruh Lviv 10% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Obolon'-Brovar vs Ruh Lviv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Obolon Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Mar 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Obolon'-Brovar 25% | Draw 29% | Ruh Lviv 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 40% | xG Obolon'-Brovar 0.83 / Ruh Lviv 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.822 / def 1.339 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.755 / def 0.829 | league avg home 1.222 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Ruh Lviv (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Obolon'-Brovar xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Ruh Lviv xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Obolon'-Brovar vs Ruh Lviv kick off?
Obolon'-Brovar vs Ruh Lviv kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 1 March 2026 at Obolon Arena.
What was the final score in Obolon'-Brovar vs Ruh Lviv?
Obolon'-Brovar 1 - 0 Ruh Lviv.
Where is Obolon'-Brovar vs Ruh Lviv being played?
The match is being played at Obolon Arena.
What competition is Obolon'-Brovar vs Ruh Lviv part of?
Obolon'-Brovar vs Ruh Lviv is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Obolon'-Brovar vs Ruh Lviv?
Our statistical model gives Obolon'-Brovar a 25% chance of winning, Ruh Lviv a 46% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Ruh Lviv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Obolon'-Brovar vs Ruh Lviv?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Obolon'-Brovar and Ruh Lviv will score (BTTS).
Will Obolon'-Brovar vs Ruh Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Obolon'-Brovar and Ruh Lviv?
Record (5 meetings): Obolon'-Brovar 2W | Draws 2 | Ruh Lviv 1W.
What form are Obolon'-Brovar and Ruh Lviv in?
Obolon'-Brovar (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Ruh Lviv (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Obolon'-Brovar's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Ruh Lviv's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.83. Flip it around — Ruh Lviv's attack (0.76x) against Obolon'-Brovar's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 46/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 0-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ruh Lviv Win
25%
4.00
29%
3.40
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Obolon'-Brovar xG
Total xG
2.07
1.24
Ruh Lviv xG
4.00
25%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
29%
3.44
44%
2.30
Win to Nil
7%
13.77
20%
5.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 15.6 | 9.7 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.0 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Obolon'-Brovar vs Ruh Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Obolon'-Brovar and Ruh Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Obolon'-Brovar and 1.24 for Ruh Lviv, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Obolon'-Brovar vs Ruh Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Obolon'-Brovar come into this having played 46 games, going 12W 13D 21L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-L. The sample for Obolon'-Brovar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ruh Lviv sit at 1.17 PPG from 46 outings (14W 12D 20L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Ruh Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.07 PPG for Obolon'-Brovar against 1.17 for Ruh Lviv. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Obolon'-Brovar's home form reads 5W 9D 9L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Ruh Lviv have taken 1.17 points per game from 23 outings (7W 6D 10L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Obolon'-Brovar are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Ruh Lviv are on 0.89 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Obolon'-Brovar
Blended
Ruh Lviv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Obolon'-Brovar and Ruh Lviv in coming into this match?
Obolon'-Brovar have gone 12W 13D 21L in their last 46 games (1.07 PPG), while Ruh Lviv have gone 14W 12D 20L in their last 46 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Obolon'-Brovar at home or Ruh Lviv away?
Ruh Lviv's away record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Obolon'-Brovar at home: 1.04 PPG; Ruh Lviv away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Obolon'-Brovar or Ruh Lviv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Obolon'-Brovar have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Ruh Lviv in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Obolon'-Brovar have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ruh Lviv won 0-4 on 11 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Obolon'-Brovar have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Ruh Lviv — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Obolon'-Brovar
2
Draws
1
Ruh Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Obolon'-Brovar and Ruh Lviv?
From 6 meetings on record, Obolon'-Brovar have won 3, Ruh Lviv have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Obolon'-Brovar and Ruh Lviv last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Obolon'-Brovar 1-0 Ruh Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Obolon'-Brovar and Ruh Lviv?
Obolon'-Brovar have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Obolon'-Brovar see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 30% (Obolon'-Brovar) and 30% (Ruh Lviv) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 39% for Obolon'-Brovar and 17% for Ruh Lviv.
On the defensive side: Obolon'-Brovar keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Ruh Lviv in 35%; Obolon'-Brovar have failed to score in 52% of games; Ruh Lviv in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Obolon'-Brovar home games / Ruh Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Obolon'-Brovar play Ruh Lviv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Obolon'-Brovar's recent matches and 30% of Ruh Lviv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Obolon'-Brovar vs Ruh Lviv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Obolon'-Brovar's recent games and 17% of Ruh Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Obolon'-Brovar and Ruh Lviv tend to score early?
Obolon'-Brovar have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Ruh Lviv in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Obolon'-Brovar defy the odds to beat Ruh Lviv 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Obolon'-Brovar beat Ruh Lviv 1-0 at Obolon Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Obolon'-Brovar 0.83 xG and Ruh Lviv 1.24 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ruh Lviv landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.82 / defence 1.34 against Ruh Lviv attack 0.76 / defence 0.83, drawn from 46/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Obolon'-Brovar 25% | Draw 29% | Ruh Lviv 46%, with Ruh Lviv to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Obolon'-Brovar win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Obolon'-Brovar 44%, Ruh Lviv 28%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 34%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Obolon'-Brovar 1.07 PPG, Ruh Lviv 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Obolon'-Brovar win broke the near-deadlock. Obolon'-Brovar (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.