LNZ Cherkasy 1-0 Veres Rivne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Veres Rivne at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as LNZ Cherkasy face Veres Rivne.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Veres Rivne make the trip to Cherkasy Arena to face LNZ Cherkasy in Premier League (matchday 24). The match kicks off on Monday 15 April 2024 at 14:30 UK time.
Form
LNZ Cherkasy (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
LNZ Cherkasy at home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Veres Rivne have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
On the road, Veres Rivne have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for LNZ Cherkasy, 1.10 for Veres Rivne — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 30 Sep 2023, ended LNZ Cherkasy 0–0 Veres Rivne — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
LNZ Cherkasy — key trading statistics (last 25 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Veres Rivne — key trading statistics (last 25 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — LNZ Cherkasy 48% versus Veres Rivne 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (LNZ Cherkasy 44% | Veres Rivne 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects LNZ Cherkasy 0.91 xG and Veres Rivne 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.832 / defence 1.245 | Veres Rivne attack 0.768 / defence 0.991. League average goals — home 1.098 / away 1.270. Veres Rivne's attack rating of 0.768 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.21. LNZ Cherkasy's defence rating of 1.245 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Veres Rivne's projected output up. Data: built from LNZ Cherkasy's last 23 games and Veres Rivne's last 52.
Result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 27% | Draw 29% | Veres Rivne 43%. Fair-value odds: LNZ Cherkasy 3.64 | Draw 3.41 | Veres Rivne 2.31. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Veres Rivne are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Veres Rivne if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.12 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 64% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (LNZ Cherkasy's last 10 home games and Veres Rivne's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: LNZ Cherkasy 60% (last 10 home games) | Veres Rivne 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: LNZ Cherkasy vs Veres Rivne | Competition: Premier League, matchday 24 | Venue: Cherkasy Arena • Kick-off: Monday 15 April 2024 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 27% | Draw 29% | Veres Rivne 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG LNZ Cherkasy 0.91 / Veres Rivne 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.832 / def 1.245 | Veres Rivne attack 0.768 / def 0.991 | league avg home 1.098 / away 1.270 • Poisson stance: Veres Rivne (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Veres Rivne xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ LNZ Cherkasy vs Veres Rivne FAQs
What time does LNZ Cherkasy vs Veres Rivne kick off?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Veres Rivne kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Monday 15 April 2024 at Cherkasy Arena.
What was the final score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Veres Rivne?
LNZ Cherkasy 1 - 0 Veres Rivne.
Where is LNZ Cherkasy vs Veres Rivne being played?
The match is being played at Cherkasy Arena.
What competition is LNZ Cherkasy vs Veres Rivne part of?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Veres Rivne is a Premier League fixture (matchday 24) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win LNZ Cherkasy vs Veres Rivne?
Our statistical model gives LNZ Cherkasy a 27% chance of winning, Veres Rivne a 43% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Veres Rivne the favourite.
Will both teams score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Veres Rivne?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both LNZ Cherkasy and Veres Rivne will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will LNZ Cherkasy vs Veres Rivne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
LNZ Cherkasy's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Veres Rivne's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.91. Flip it around — Veres Rivne's attack (0.77x) against LNZ Cherkasy's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from LNZ Cherkasy's last 23 games and Veres Rivne's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 0-1 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Veres Rivne Win
27%
3.64
29%
3.41
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Total xG
2.12
1.21
Veres Rivne xG
3.64
27%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
40%
2.47
Win to Nil
8%
12.25
17%
5.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 14.6 | 8.9 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ LNZ Cherkasy vs Veres Rivne Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for LNZ Cherkasy vs Veres Rivne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are LNZ Cherkasy and Veres Rivne expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for LNZ Cherkasy and 1.21 for Veres Rivne, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for LNZ Cherkasy vs Veres Rivne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
LNZ Cherkasy come into this having played 25 games, going 7W 9D 9L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-D.
On the other side, Veres Rivne sit at 1.00 PPG from 25 outings (6W 7D 12L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for LNZ Cherkasy against 1.00 for Veres Rivne. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
LNZ Cherkasy's home form reads 2W 3D 6L across their last 11 home games, a 0.82 PPG return.
Away from home, Veres Rivne have taken 0.55 points per game from their last 11 away games (1W 3D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Veres Rivne's recent record.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
LNZ Cherkasy are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Veres Rivne are on 1.12 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 25 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
Veres Rivne
Blended
LNZ Cherkasy (Home) vs Veres Rivne (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
Veres Rivne
Blended
❓ LNZ Cherkasy vs Veres Rivne Form FAQs
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Veres Rivne in coming into this match?
LNZ Cherkasy have gone 7W 9D 9L in their last 25 games (1.20 PPG), while Veres Rivne have gone 6W 7D 12L in their last 25 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — LNZ Cherkasy at home or Veres Rivne away?
LNZ Cherkasy's home record (0.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — LNZ Cherkasy at home: 0.82 PPG; Veres Rivne away: 0.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 7 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 30 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: LNZ Cherkasy won Veres Rivne 0-3 LNZ Cherkasy on 9 Mar 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, LNZ Cherkasy have gone 1W 0D 3L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Veres Rivne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
LNZ Cherkasy
2
Draws
3
Veres Rivne
Recent Meetings
❓ LNZ Cherkasy vs Veres Rivne H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Veres Rivne?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, LNZ Cherkasy have won 2, Veres Rivne have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did LNZ Cherkasy and Veres Rivne last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 August 2026: LNZ Cherkasy 0-1 Veres Rivne.
Who has won more matches between LNZ Cherkasy and Veres Rivne?
Veres Rivne have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
LNZ Cherkasy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Veres Rivne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — LNZ Cherkasy 54%, Veres Rivne 27% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (LNZ Cherkasy) and 18% (Veres Rivne).
On the defensive side: LNZ Cherkasy have failed to score in 36% of games; Veres Rivne in 64%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = LNZ Cherkasy home games / Veres Rivne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ LNZ Cherkasy vs Veres Rivne Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in LNZ Cherkasy and Veres Rivne matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent matches and 27% of Veres Rivne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are LNZ Cherkasy and Veres Rivne matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent games and 18% of Veres Rivne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do LNZ Cherkasy and Veres Rivne matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent matches and 64% of Veres Rivne's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as LNZ Cherkasy defy the odds to beat Veres Rivne 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
LNZ Cherkasy beat Veres Rivne 1-0 at Cherkasy Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting LNZ Cherkasy 0.91 xG and Veres Rivne 1.21 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Veres Rivne landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.83 / defence 1.25 against Veres Rivne attack 0.77 / defence 0.99, drawn from 23/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it LNZ Cherkasy 27% | Draw 29% | Veres Rivne 43%, with Veres Rivne to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual LNZ Cherkasy win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (LNZ Cherkasy 44%, Veres Rivne 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (25 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Veres Rivne's trading profile (25 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — LNZ Cherkasy 1.20 PPG, Veres Rivne 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the LNZ Cherkasy win broke the near-deadlock. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.