Karpaty 3-0 Livyi Bereh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Karpaty take on Livyi Bereh.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 12 as Karpaty welcome Livyi Bereh to Stadion Ukraina. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 November 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Karpaty — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L D W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Karpaty, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Karpaty's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 2L across 6 games at Stadion Ukraina this term (1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Ukraina.
Across all Premier League games this season, Livyi Bereh have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Livyi Bereh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Livyi Bereh's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 3L across 6 road games this term (0.83 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Karpaty have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
Karpaty in-play and half-time data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
Livyi Bereh in-play and half-time data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 20% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they fail to score in 82% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Karpaty 46% | Livyi Bereh 9%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Karpaty 46% | Livyi Bereh 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karpaty 0.87 xG and Livyi Bereh 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karpaty attack 0.822 / defence 1.069 | Livyi Bereh attack 0.694 / defence 0.917. League average goals — home 1.155 / away 1.126. Data: 11 Karpaty games / 11 Livyi Bereh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Karpaty 33% | Draw 36% | Livyi Bereh 31%. Fair-value odds: Karpaty 3.03 | Draw 2.78 | Livyi Bereh 3.23. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.71. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.71 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Livyi Bereh's lower xG of 0.84 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.71 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 24% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 34%. Form rates corroborate: Karpaty 50% | Livyi Bereh 17% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karpaty vs Livyi Bereh | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadion Ukraina • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Nov 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karpaty 33% | Draw 36% | Livyi Bereh 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 34% | xG Karpaty 0.87 / Livyi Bereh 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Karpaty attack 0.822 / def 1.069 | Livyi Bereh attack 0.694 / def 0.917 | league avg home 1.155 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Karpaty xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Livyi Bereh xG
34%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Karpaty vs Livyi Bereh kick off?
Karpaty vs Livyi Bereh kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 2 November 2024 at Stadion Ukraina.
What was the final score in Karpaty vs Livyi Bereh?
Karpaty 3 - 0 Livyi Bereh.
Where is Karpaty vs Livyi Bereh being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ukraina.
What competition is Karpaty vs Livyi Bereh part of?
Karpaty vs Livyi Bereh is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Karpaty vs Livyi Bereh?
Our statistical model gives Karpaty a 33% chance of winning, Livyi Bereh a 31% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Karpaty vs Livyi Bereh?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Karpaty and Livyi Bereh will score (BTTS).
Will Karpaty vs Livyi Bereh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Karpaty and Livyi Bereh?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Karpaty and Livyi Bereh in?
Karpaty (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. Livyi Bereh (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
What do the betting odds say about Karpaty vs Livyi Bereh?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Karpaty's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Livyi Bereh's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.87. The same calculation in reverse, Livyi Bereh's attack versus Karpaty's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 19.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.06
36%
2.74
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Karpaty xG
Total xG
1.71
0.84
Livyi Bereh xG
3.06
33%
Home win
2.74
36%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.93
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
42%
2.39
Win to Nil
14%
7.05
13%
7.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.2 | 15.2 | 6.3 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.8 | 13.2 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Karpaty vs Livyi Bereh?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.9%.
How many goals are Karpaty and Livyi Bereh expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Karpaty and 0.84 for Livyi Bereh, a combined total of 1.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Karpaty vs Livyi Bereh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Karpaty's recent record stands at 4W 3D 4L from 11 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Karpaty is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Livyi Bereh, meanwhile, have gone 2W 2D 7L across 11 games — 0.73 PPG, with L-L-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for Livyi Bereh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Karpaty by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Livyi Bereh heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Karpaty have managed 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Livyi Bereh's away record stands at 1W 2D 2L across 5 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Karpaty are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Livyi Bereh are on 0.36 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Livyi Bereh in 9%.
Defensively: Karpaty have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karpaty
Blended
Livyi Bereh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Karpaty and Livyi Bereh in coming into this match?
Karpaty have gone 4W 3D 4L in their last 11 games (1.36 PPG), while Livyi Bereh have gone 2W 2D 7L in their last 11 (0.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Karpaty at home or Livyi Bereh away?
Karpaty's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Karpaty at home: 1.00 PPG; Livyi Bereh away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Karpaty or Livyi Bereh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Karpaty have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their recent games, Livyi Bereh in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Karpaty and Livyi Bereh runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Karpaty
0
Draws
0
Livyi Bereh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Karpaty and Livyi Bereh?
From 2 meetings on record, Karpaty have won 2, Livyi Bereh have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Karpaty and Livyi Bereh last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2025, when Livyi Bereh 2-3 Karpaty.
Who has won more matches between Karpaty and Livyi Bereh?
Karpaty have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Karpaty are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Livyi Bereh tend to start slowly — only 20% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Karpaty 60%, Livyi Bereh 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Karpaty and 20% for Livyi Bereh.
On the defensive side: Karpaty keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Livyi Bereh in 40%; Livyi Bereh in 80%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karpaty home games / Livyi Bereh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Karpaty play Livyi Bereh?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Karpaty's recent matches and 20% of Livyi Bereh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Karpaty vs Livyi Bereh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Karpaty's recent games and 20% of Livyi Bereh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Karpaty and Livyi Bereh tend to score early?
Karpaty have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Livyi Bereh in 20% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Karpaty run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Livyi Bereh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Karpaty beat Livyi Bereh 3-0 at Stadion Ukraina, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karpaty 0.87 xG and Livyi Bereh 0.84 xG, a combined 1.71. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Karpaty beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Livyi Bereh landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karpaty attack 0.82 / defence 1.07 against Livyi Bereh attack 0.69 / defence 0.92, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karpaty 33% | Draw 36% | Livyi Bereh 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Karpaty win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karpaty 46%, Livyi Bereh 27%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 27%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karpaty's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and duly kept one.
Livyi Bereh's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 9% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 82% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Karpaty arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.73. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Karpaty (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Livyi Bereh (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.