Inhulets 1-1 Vorskla Poltava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Vorskla Poltava at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Inhulets vs Vorskla Poltava encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Inhulets and Vorskla Poltava meet at CSC Nika in Premier League, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Friday 23 May 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Form
Inhulets (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Inhulets's home record at CSC Nika: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Vorskla Poltava have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Vorskla Poltava have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Inhulets against 0.90 for Vorskla Poltava. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Inhulets have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Vorskla Poltava in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Inhulets, 3 for Vorskla Poltava and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2024, ended 3–0 with Inhulets winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Inhulets — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 21% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
Vorskla Poltava — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Inhulets 34% | Vorskla Poltava 34%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Inhulets 41% | Vorskla Poltava 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Inhulets 0.59 xG and Vorskla Poltava 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inhulets attack 0.625 / defence 1.275 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.758 / defence 0.802. League average goals — home 1.169 / away 1.002. Inhulets's attack strength of 0.625 is below the league average — the 0.59 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 29 Inhulets games / 59 Vorskla Poltava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Inhulets 21% | Draw 35% | Vorskla Poltava 43%. Fair-value odds: Inhulets 4.76 | Draw 2.86 | Vorskla Poltava 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 20% | BTTS probability 28% | Total xG 1.55. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 80% probability — total xG of 1.55 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 72% — Inhulets's lower xG of 0.59 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 28%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vorskla Poltava at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vorskla Poltava if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 20% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 28% on No. Form rates corroborate: Inhulets 30% | Vorskla Poltava 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Inhulets vs Vorskla Poltava | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: CSC Nika • Kick-off: Friday 23 May 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Inhulets 21% | Draw 35% | Vorskla Poltava 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 20% | BTTS 28% | xG Inhulets 0.59 / Vorskla Poltava 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Inhulets attack 0.625 / def 1.275 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.758 / def 0.802 | league avg home 1.169 / away 1.002 • Poisson stance: Vorskla Poltava (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.59
Inhulets xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Vorskla Poltava xG
28%
BTTS
46%
Over 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Inhulets vs Vorskla Poltava kick off?
Inhulets vs Vorskla Poltava kicked off at 13:30 on Friday 23 May 2025 at CSC Nika.
What was the final score in Inhulets vs Vorskla Poltava?
Inhulets 1 - 1 Vorskla Poltava.
Where is Inhulets vs Vorskla Poltava being played?
The match is being played at CSC Nika.
What competition is Inhulets vs Vorskla Poltava part of?
Inhulets vs Vorskla Poltava is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Inhulets vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our statistical model gives Inhulets a 21% chance of winning, Vorskla Poltava a 43% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Vorskla Poltava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Inhulets vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our model estimates a 28% probability that both Inhulets and Vorskla Poltava will score (BTTS).
Will Inhulets vs Vorskla Poltava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 20%.
What is the head-to-head record between Inhulets and Vorskla Poltava?
Record (4 meetings): Inhulets 1W | Draws 0 | Vorskla Poltava 3W.
What form are Inhulets and Vorskla Poltava in?
Inhulets (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Inhulets's attacking strength (0.62x league average) is weighed against Vorskla Poltava's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.59. Flip it around — Vorskla Poltava's attack (0.76x) against Inhulets's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 29/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 22.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (18.9%), 1-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 55% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vorskla Poltava Win
21%
4.69
35%
2.82
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
21.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
20.5%
Away win
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.59
Inhulets xG
Total xG
1.55
0.97
Vorskla Poltava xG
4.69
21%
Home win
2.82
35%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
46%
Over 1.5
2.17
54%
Under 1.5
1.85
20%
Over 2.5
5.00
80%
Under 2.5
1.25
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
28%
BTTS Yes
3.60
72%
BTTS No
1.38
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
56%
1.80
Win to Nil
8%
12.37
24%
4.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21.1 | 20.5 | 9.9 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.0 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Inhulets vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 22.7%.
How many goals are Inhulets and Vorskla Poltava expected to score?
The model projects 0.59 expected goals for Inhulets and 0.97 for Vorskla Poltava, a combined total of 1.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Inhulets vs Vorskla Poltava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Inhulets's recent record stands at 5W 8D 16L from 29 games, a 0.79 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five.
Vorskla Poltava, meanwhile, have gone 6W 8D 15L across 29 games — 0.90 PPG, with L-W-D-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.79 PPG for Inhulets against 0.90 for Vorskla Poltava. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Inhulets have managed 4W 2D 8L from 14 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vorskla Poltava's away record stands at 3W 5D 6L across 14 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Inhulets are averaging 0.69 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Vorskla Poltava are on 0.79 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 29 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Inhulets
Current Season
Vorskla Poltava
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Inhulets and Vorskla Poltava in coming into this match?
Inhulets have gone 5W 8D 16L in their last 29 games (0.79 PPG), while Vorskla Poltava have gone 6W 8D 15L in their last 29 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Inhulets at home or Vorskla Poltava away?
Inhulets's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Inhulets at home: 1.00 PPG; Vorskla Poltava away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Inhulets or Vorskla Poltava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Inhulets have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Vorskla Poltava in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Vorskla Poltava won 3-0 on 2 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Inhulets have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Vorskla Poltava — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Inhulets
1
Draws
3
Vorskla Poltava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Inhulets and Vorskla Poltava?
From 5 meetings on record, Inhulets have won 1, Vorskla Poltava have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Inhulets and Vorskla Poltava last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2025, when Inhulets 1-1 Vorskla Poltava.
Who has won more matches between Inhulets and Vorskla Poltava?
Vorskla Poltava have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Inhulets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Vorskla Poltava see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 21% (Inhulets) and 43% (Vorskla Poltava) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 29% for Inhulets and 36% for Vorskla Poltava.
On the defensive side: Inhulets keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Vorskla Poltava in 36%; Inhulets have failed to score in 57% of games; Vorskla Poltava in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Inhulets home games / Vorskla Poltava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Inhulets play Vorskla Poltava?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 21% of Inhulets's recent matches and 43% of Vorskla Poltava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Inhulets vs Vorskla Poltava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Inhulets's recent games and 36% of Vorskla Poltava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Inhulets and Vorskla Poltava tend to score early?
Inhulets have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Vorskla Poltava in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Inhulets and Vorskla Poltava share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at CSC Nika, Regular Season - 30, as Inhulets and Vorskla Poltava drew 1-1 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Inhulets 0.59 xG and Vorskla Poltava 0.97 xG, a combined 1.55. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inhulets attack 0.62 / defence 1.27 against Vorskla Poltava attack 0.76 / defence 0.80, drawn from 29/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Inhulets 21% | Draw 35% | Vorskla Poltava 43%, with Vorskla Poltava to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 20%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 46% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 28% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inhulets 41%, Vorskla Poltava 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 34%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Inhulets's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Inhulets 0.79 PPG, Vorskla Poltava 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.