Inhulets 1-4 Shakhtar Donetsk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shakhtar Donetsk (64%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Inhulets face Shakhtar Donetsk.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 29 as Inhulets welcome Shakhtar Donetsk to Stadion Ukraina. Kick-off is set for Sunday 18 May 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Inhulets have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Inhulets at Stadion Ukraina this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shakhtar Donetsk stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Shakhtar Donetsk's away record: 5W 4D 1L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Shakhtar Donetsk — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
Shakhtar Donetsk have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 5 encounters against Inhulets's 0 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2024, ended 0–6 with Shakhtar Donetsk winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Shakhtar Donetsk have won 5 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Inhulets in-play and half-time data (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 15% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (home games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
Shakhtar Donetsk in-play and half-time data (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Inhulets 32% versus Shakhtar Donetsk 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Inhulets 39% | Shakhtar Donetsk 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Inhulets 0.47 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inhulets attack 0.595 / defence 1.106 | Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.356 / defence 0.673. League average goals — home 1.163 / away 1.012. Inhulets's attack strength of 0.595 is below the league average — the 0.47 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Shakhtar Donetsk's defence strength of 0.673 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Shakhtar Donetsk have an above-average attack strength of 1.356 — the away xG of 1.52 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 28 Inhulets games / 58 Shakhtar Donetsk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Inhulets 11% | Draw 25% | Shakhtar Donetsk 64%. Fair-value odds: Inhulets 9.09 | Draw 4.00 | Shakhtar Donetsk 1.56. The model has a clear lean to Shakhtar Donetsk (64%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 29% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 71% — Inhulets's lower xG of 0.47 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 29%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shakhtar Donetsk at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 1.98 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 29%. Form rates corroborate: Inhulets 20% | Shakhtar Donetsk 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Inhulets vs Shakhtar Donetsk | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadion Ukraina • Kick-off: Sunday 18 May 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Inhulets 11% | Draw 25% | Shakhtar Donetsk 64% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 29% | xG Inhulets 0.47 / Shakhtar Donetsk 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Inhulets attack 0.595 / def 1.106 | Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.356 / def 0.673 | league avg home 1.163 / away 1.012 • Poisson stance: Shakhtar Donetsk (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.47
Inhulets xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
29%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Inhulets vs Shakhtar Donetsk kick off?
Inhulets vs Shakhtar Donetsk kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 18 May 2025 at Stadion Ukraina.
What was the final score in Inhulets vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Inhulets 1 - 4 Shakhtar Donetsk.
Where is Inhulets vs Shakhtar Donetsk being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ukraina.
What competition is Inhulets vs Shakhtar Donetsk part of?
Inhulets vs Shakhtar Donetsk is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Inhulets vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our statistical model gives Inhulets a 11% chance of winning, Shakhtar Donetsk a 64% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Inhulets vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our model estimates a 29% probability that both Inhulets and Shakhtar Donetsk will score (BTTS).
Will Inhulets vs Shakhtar Donetsk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Inhulets and Shakhtar Donetsk?
Record (5 meetings): Inhulets 0W | Draws 0 | Shakhtar Donetsk 5W.
What form are Inhulets and Shakhtar Donetsk in?
Inhulets (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Shakhtar Donetsk (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Inhulets's attack rating (0.59) and Shakhtar Donetsk's defence rating (0.67), the model arrives at 0.47 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Shakhtar Donetsk's attack versus Inhulets's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.6%. Close behind: 0-2 (15.9%), 0-0 (15.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shakhtar Donetsk Win
11%
8.99
25%
3.95
64%
1.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
20.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
15.9%
Away win
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.47
Inhulets xG
Total xG
1.98
1.52
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
8.99
11%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
1.57
64%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
29%
BTTS Yes
3.44
71%
BTTS No
1.41
Clean Sheet
22%
4.56
63%
1.59
Win to Nil
2%
41.03
40%
2.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 20.9 | 15.9 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 9.7 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Inhulets vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.6%.
How many goals are Inhulets and Shakhtar Donetsk expected to score?
The model projects 0.47 expected goals for Inhulets and 1.52 for Shakhtar Donetsk, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Inhulets vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Inhulets's recent record stands at 5W 8D 15L from 28 games, a 0.82 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-W in the last five.
Shakhtar Donetsk, meanwhile, have gone 17W 7D 4L across 28 games — 2.07 PPG, with W-L-D-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shakhtar Donetsk by 1.25 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Inhulets heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Inhulets have managed 4W 2D 7L from 13 games — 1.08 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shakhtar Donetsk's away record stands at 7W 4D 2L across 13 trips, a 1.92 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shakhtar Donetsk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Inhulets are averaging 0.68 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Shakhtar Donetsk are on 2.29 scored and 0.86 conceded.
Defensively: Shakhtar Donetsk in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Inhulets
Current Season
Shakhtar Donetsk
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Inhulets and Shakhtar Donetsk in coming into this match?
Inhulets have gone 5W 8D 15L in their last 28 games (0.82 PPG), while Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 17W 7D 4L in their last 28 (2.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Inhulets at home or Shakhtar Donetsk away?
Shakhtar Donetsk's away record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Inhulets at home: 1.08 PPG; Shakhtar Donetsk away: 1.92 PPG.
Have Inhulets or Shakhtar Donetsk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Inhulets have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Shakhtar Donetsk in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Inhulets and Shakhtar Donetsk runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Shakhtar Donetsk have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Nov 2024, when Shakhtar Donetsk won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Inhulets's record when hosting Shakhtar Donetsk specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Inhulets
0
Draws
6
Shakhtar Donetsk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Inhulets and Shakhtar Donetsk?
From 6 meetings on record, Inhulets have won 0, Shakhtar Donetsk have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Inhulets and Shakhtar Donetsk last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2025, when Inhulets 1-4 Shakhtar Donetsk.
Who has won more matches between Inhulets and Shakhtar Donetsk?
Shakhtar Donetsk have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Inhulets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Shakhtar Donetsk see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Inhulets 15% BTTS, Shakhtar Donetsk 38%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 23% for Inhulets and 38% for Shakhtar Donetsk.
On the defensive side: Inhulets keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Shakhtar Donetsk in 54%; Inhulets have failed to score in 62% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Inhulets home games / Shakhtar Donetsk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Inhulets play Shakhtar Donetsk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 15% of Inhulets's recent matches and 38% of Shakhtar Donetsk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Inhulets vs Shakhtar Donetsk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 23% of Inhulets's recent games and 38% of Shakhtar Donetsk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Inhulets and Shakhtar Donetsk tend to score early?
Inhulets have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Shakhtar Donetsk in 38% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shakhtar Donetsk run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Inhulets.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shakhtar Donetsk beat Inhulets 1-4 at Stadion Ukraina, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Inhulets 0.47 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 1.52 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Shakhtar Donetsk outscored their 1.52 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inhulets attack 0.59 / defence 1.11 against Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.36 / defence 0.67, drawn from 28/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Inhulets 11% | Draw 25% | Shakhtar Donetsk 64%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 64%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 29% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inhulets 39%, Shakhtar Donetsk 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Inhulets's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shakhtar Donetsk arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 0.82. That form edge translated into the three points. Inhulets (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shakhtar Donetsk (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.77 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.