Inhulets 2-1 Desna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Desna at 37% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Inhulets vs Desna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Inhulets host Desna at Stadion Zirka in Premier League (matchday 18). Kick-off is Friday 10 December 2021 at 17:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Inhulets stand at 0W 3D 7L — 0.30 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters, Inhulets have posted 1W 2D 4L from their last 7 home games — 0.71 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, Desna have recorded 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Desna's away record over their last 8 away games: 3W 2D 3L (1.38 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from their last 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Desna are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Inhulets have won 0, Desna 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 9 Aug 2021, ended Inhulets 0–2 Desna — a Desna win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Inhulets trading profile (last 16 games, 7 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
Desna trading profile (last 16 games, 7 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Inhulets 38% versus Desna 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Inhulets 44% | Desna 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Inhulets 0.85 xG and Desna 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inhulets attack 0.658 / defence 1.058 | Desna attack 0.750 / defence 1.164. League average goals — home 1.106 / away 1.207. Inhulets's attack rating of 0.658 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.85. Desna's attack rating of 0.750 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.96. Data: built from Inhulets's last 16 games and Desna's last 17.
Result probabilities: Inhulets 31% | Draw 33% | Desna 37%. Fair-value odds: Inhulets 3.27 | Draw 3.05 | Desna 2.73. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS Yes probability 35% | Total xG 1.80. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.80 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Inhulets's lower xG of 0.85 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Desna are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Desna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.80 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 73% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 65%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Inhulets 29% (last 7 home games) | Desna 38% (last 8 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Inhulets vs Desna | Competition: Premier League, matchday 18 | Venue: Stadion Zirka • Kick-off: Friday 10 December 2021 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Inhulets 31% | Draw 33% | Desna 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% (Under 73%) | BTTS Yes 35% (No 65%) | xG Inhulets 0.85 / Desna 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Inhulets attack 0.658 / def 1.058 | Desna attack 0.750 / def 1.164 | league avg home 1.106 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: Desna (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Inhulets xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Desna xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Inhulets vs Desna FAQs
What time does Inhulets vs Desna kick off?
Inhulets vs Desna kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Friday 10 December 2021 at Stadion Zirka.
What was the final score in Inhulets vs Desna?
Inhulets 2 - 1 Desna.
Where is Inhulets vs Desna being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Zirka.
What competition is Inhulets vs Desna part of?
Inhulets vs Desna is a Premier League fixture (matchday 18) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Inhulets vs Desna?
Our statistical model gives Inhulets a 31% chance of winning, Desna a 37% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Desna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Inhulets vs Desna?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Inhulets and Desna will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (65%).
Will Inhulets vs Desna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (73%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Inhulets's attacking strength (0.66x league average) is weighed against Desna's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.85. The same calculation in reverse, Desna's attack versus Inhulets's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Inhulets's last 16 games and Desna's last 17 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Desna Win
31%
3.27
33%
3.05
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.8%
Away win
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Inhulets xG
Total xG
1.80
0.96
Desna xG
3.27
31%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.84
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
43%
2.33
Win to Nil
12%
8.52
16%
6.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.4 | 15.8 | 7.5 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.3 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Inhulets vs Desna Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Inhulets vs Desna?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.2%.
How many goals are Inhulets and Desna expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Inhulets and 0.96 for Desna, a combined total of 1.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Inhulets vs Desna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Inhulets come into this having played 16 games, going 2W 4D 10L for 0.62 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-L.
On the other side, Desna sit at 1.38 PPG from 16 outings (6W 4D 6L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-D across their last five.
Desna carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.76 PPG clear of Inhulets — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Inhulets's home form reads 1W 2D 4L across their last 7 home games, a 0.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Desna have taken 1.14 points per game from their last 7 away games (2W 2D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Desna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Inhulets are averaging 0.69 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Desna are on 1.12 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 16 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Inhulets
Blended
Desna
Blended
Inhulets (Home) vs Desna (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Inhulets
Blended
Desna
Blended
❓ Inhulets vs Desna Form FAQs
What form are Inhulets and Desna in coming into this match?
Inhulets have gone 2W 4D 10L in their last 16 games (0.62 PPG), while Desna have gone 6W 4D 6L in their last 16 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Inhulets at home or Desna away?
Desna's away record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Inhulets at home: 0.71 PPG; Desna away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Inhulets or Desna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Inhulets have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Desna in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from August 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 10 December 2021, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Inhulets
0
Draws
1
Desna
Recent Meetings
❓ Inhulets vs Desna H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Inhulets and Desna?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Inhulets have won 1, Desna have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Inhulets and Desna last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 December 2021: Inhulets 2-1 Desna.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Inhulets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Desna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Inhulets 29% BTTS, Desna 29%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Inhulets) and 43% (Desna).
On the defensive side: Desna in 43%; Inhulets have failed to score in 57% of games; Desna in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Inhulets home games / Desna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Inhulets vs Desna Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Inhulets and Desna matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Inhulets's recent matches and 29% of Desna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Inhulets and Desna matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Inhulets's recent games and 43% of Desna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Inhulets and Desna matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Inhulets's recent matches and 71% of Desna's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Inhulets defy the odds to beat Desna 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inhulets beat Desna 2-1 at Stadion Zirka, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Inhulets 0.85 xG and Desna 0.96 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Inhulets beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inhulets attack 0.66 / defence 1.06 against Desna attack 0.75 / defence 1.16, drawn from 16/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Inhulets 31% | Draw 33% | Desna 37%, with Desna to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Inhulets win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inhulets 44%, Desna 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Inhulets's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Desna's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Desna arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.62. Form was overturned, with Inhulets winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Inhulets (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.