Chornomorets 2-1 FC Kharkiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chornomorets at 40%, yet in-form FC Kharkiv provide a compelling counter-argument — this Chornomorets vs FC Kharkiv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees FC Kharkiv travel to Stadion Chornomorets to take on Chornomorets. The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 December 2021, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chornomorets stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chornomorets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chornomorets's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 5L across 9 games at Stadion Chornomorets this term (0.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC Kharkiv — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, FC Kharkiv have posted 2W 1D 6L from 9 away outings — 0.78 PPG. Away from home they average 0.44 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 22% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.78 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour FC Kharkiv — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Chornomorets, 1 for FC Kharkiv and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2021, ended 2–3 with FC Kharkiv winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Chornomorets trading profile (17 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 41% of games.
FC Kharkiv trading profile (17 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chornomorets 59% versus FC Kharkiv 35%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chornomorets 71% | FC Kharkiv 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chornomorets 1.28 xG and FC Kharkiv 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chornomorets attack 0.861 / defence 1.709 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.550 / defence 1.331. League average goals — home 1.116 / away 1.215. FC Kharkiv bring a strong defensive rating of 1.331 — this is suppressing Chornomorets's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Chornomorets games / 17 FC Kharkiv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chornomorets 40% | Draw 27% | FC Kharkiv 33%. Fair-value odds: Chornomorets 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | FC Kharkiv 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chornomorets at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC Kharkiv (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chornomorets offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Chornomorets 56% | FC Kharkiv 22% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chornomorets vs FC Kharkiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadion Chornomorets • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Dec 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chornomorets 40% | Draw 27% | FC Kharkiv 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Chornomorets 1.28 / FC Kharkiv 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Chornomorets attack 0.861 / def 1.709 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.550 / def 1.331 | league avg home 1.116 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: Chornomorets (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Chornomorets xG
Expected Goals
1.14
FC Kharkiv xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chornomorets vs FC Kharkiv kick off?
Chornomorets vs FC Kharkiv kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 12 December 2021 at Stadion Chornomorets.
What was the final score in Chornomorets vs FC Kharkiv?
Chornomorets 2 - 1 FC Kharkiv.
Where is Chornomorets vs FC Kharkiv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Chornomorets.
What competition is Chornomorets vs FC Kharkiv part of?
Chornomorets vs FC Kharkiv is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Chornomorets vs FC Kharkiv?
Our statistical model gives Chornomorets a 40% chance of winning, FC Kharkiv a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Chornomorets the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chornomorets vs FC Kharkiv?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Chornomorets and FC Kharkiv will score (BTTS).
Will Chornomorets vs FC Kharkiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and FC Kharkiv?
Record (1 meetings): Chornomorets 0W | Draws 0 | FC Kharkiv 1W.
What form are Chornomorets and FC Kharkiv in?
Chornomorets (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. FC Kharkiv (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Chornomorets's attack at 0.86x the league average against FC Kharkiv's defence at 1.33x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Kharkiv's attack versus Chornomorets's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chornomorets Win
40%
2.52
27%
3.64
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Chornomorets xG
Total xG
2.42
1.14
FC Kharkiv xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
13%
7.90
9%
10.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 10.1 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.0 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chornomorets vs FC Kharkiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Chornomorets and FC Kharkiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Chornomorets and 1.14 for FC Kharkiv, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Chornomorets vs FC Kharkiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Chornomorets's recent record stands at 2W 5D 10L from 17 games, a 0.65 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Chornomorets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Kharkiv, meanwhile, have gone 6W 1D 10L across 17 games — 1.12 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for FC Kharkiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Kharkiv by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Chornomorets heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Chornomorets have managed 1W 3D 5L from 9 games — 0.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Kharkiv's away record stands at 2W 1D 6L across 9 trips, a 0.78 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Chornomorets are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 2.29 conceded per game recently; FC Kharkiv are on 0.94 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 17 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chornomorets
Blended
FC Kharkiv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chornomorets and FC Kharkiv in coming into this match?
Chornomorets have gone 2W 5D 10L in their last 17 games (0.65 PPG), while FC Kharkiv have gone 6W 1D 10L in their last 17 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chornomorets at home or FC Kharkiv away?
FC Kharkiv's away record (0.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chornomorets at home: 0.67 PPG; FC Kharkiv away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chornomorets and FC Kharkiv runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 May 2024, when Chornomorets won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chornomorets's record when hosting FC Kharkiv specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Chornomorets
2
Draws
2
FC Kharkiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and FC Kharkiv?
From 6 meetings on record, Chornomorets have won 2, FC Kharkiv have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chornomorets and FC Kharkiv last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2024, when Chornomorets 3-0 FC Kharkiv.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
FC Kharkiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chornomorets 56%, FC Kharkiv 22% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Chornomorets) and 22% (FC Kharkiv).
On the defensive side: Chornomorets have failed to score in 44% of games; FC Kharkiv in 78%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chornomorets home games / FC Kharkiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chornomorets play FC Kharkiv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Chornomorets's recent matches and 22% of FC Kharkiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chornomorets vs FC Kharkiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Chornomorets's recent games and 22% of FC Kharkiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chornomorets and FC Kharkiv tend to score early?
Chornomorets have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, FC Kharkiv in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Chornomorets edge out FC Kharkiv 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chornomorets beat FC Kharkiv 2-1 at Stadion Chornomorets, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chornomorets 1.28 xG and FC Kharkiv 1.14 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chornomorets attack 0.86 / defence 1.71 against FC Kharkiv attack 0.55 / defence 1.33, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chornomorets 40% | Draw 27% | FC Kharkiv 33%, with Chornomorets to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chornomorets 71%, FC Kharkiv 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chornomorets's trading profile (17 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (17 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Kharkiv arrived the stronger side — 1.12 PPG against 0.65. Form was overturned, with Chornomorets winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Chornomorets (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.