FC Mariupol 0-3 Dnipro-1 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dnipro-1 at 53% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Mariupol vs Dnipro-1 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Mariupol host Dnipro-1 at Stadion im. Volodymyra Boyka in Premier League (matchday 18). Kick-off is Friday 10 December 2021 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
FC Mariupol — last 10 games: 1W 1D 8L, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
FC Mariupol's form when playing at home: 0W 0D 8L across their last 8 home games (0.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 2.75 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Dnipro-1 stand at 8W 0D 2L — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Dnipro-1 away from home: 4W 1D 3L from their last 8 away games — 1.62 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from their last 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.62 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Dnipro-1 are 2.00 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, FC Mariupol have won 0, Dnipro-1 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 7 Aug 2021, ended FC Mariupol 1–2 Dnipro-1 — a Dnipro-1 win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
FC Mariupol in-play and half-time data (last 17 games, 8 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Dnipro-1 in-play and half-time data (last 17 games, 8 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in away games; they lead at the break 53% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Mariupol 65% versus Dnipro-1 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Mariupol 71% | Dnipro-1 59%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: FC Mariupol surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while Dnipro-1 have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 40% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Mariupol 0.92 xG and Dnipro-1 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Mariupol attack 0.807 / defence 1.657 | Dnipro-1 attack 0.800 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.116 / away 1.189. FC Mariupol's defence rating of 1.657 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Dnipro-1's projected output up. Data: built from FC Mariupol's last 17 games and Dnipro-1's last 17.
Result probabilities: FC Mariupol 22% | Draw 25% | Dnipro-1 53%. Fair-value odds: FC Mariupol 4.53 | Draw 3.96 | Dnipro-1 1.90. Dnipro-1 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dnipro-1 as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dnipro-1 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — low conviction — though recent form (FC Mariupol's last 8 home games and Dnipro-1's last 8 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: FC Mariupol 62% (last 8 home games) | Dnipro-1 38% (last 8 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Mariupol vs Dnipro-1 | Competition: Premier League, matchday 18 | Venue: Stadion im. Volodymyra Boyka • Kick-off: Friday 10 December 2021 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Mariupol 22% | Draw 25% | Dnipro-1 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG FC Mariupol 0.92 / Dnipro-1 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: FC Mariupol attack 0.807 / def 1.657 | Dnipro-1 attack 0.800 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.116 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Dnipro-1 (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
FC Mariupol xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Dnipro-1 xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Mariupol vs Dnipro-1 FAQs
What time does FC Mariupol vs Dnipro-1 kick off?
FC Mariupol vs Dnipro-1 kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Friday 10 December 2021 at Stadion im. Volodymyra Boyka.
What was the final score in FC Mariupol vs Dnipro-1?
FC Mariupol 0 - 3 Dnipro-1.
Where is FC Mariupol vs Dnipro-1 being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Volodymyra Boyka.
What competition is FC Mariupol vs Dnipro-1 part of?
FC Mariupol vs Dnipro-1 is a Premier League fixture (matchday 18) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win FC Mariupol vs Dnipro-1?
Our statistical model gives FC Mariupol a 22% chance of winning, Dnipro-1 a 53% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Dnipro-1 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Mariupol vs Dnipro-1?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both FC Mariupol and Dnipro-1 will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will FC Mariupol vs Dnipro-1 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Mariupol's attack rating (0.81) and Dnipro-1's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 0.92 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dnipro-1's attack versus FC Mariupol's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FC Mariupol's last 17 games and Dnipro-1's last 17 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.4%), 0-2 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dnipro-1 Win
22%
4.53
25%
3.96
53%
1.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
0 – 2
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
FC Mariupol xG
Total xG
2.50
1.58
Dnipro-1 xG
4.53
22%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
1.90
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
21%
4.84
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
5%
21.91
21%
4.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 12.9 | 10.2 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.9 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 5.5 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Mariupol vs Dnipro-1 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Mariupol vs Dnipro-1?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are FC Mariupol and Dnipro-1 expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for FC Mariupol and 1.58 for Dnipro-1, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Mariupol vs Dnipro-1?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Mariupol's recent record stands at 2W 2D 13L from 17 games, a 0.47 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-D in the last five.
Dnipro-1, meanwhile, have gone 12W 1D 4L across 17 games — 2.18 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dnipro-1 by 1.71 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Mariupol heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC Mariupol have managed 0W 0D 8L from their last 8 home games — 0.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 0.47 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Dnipro-1's away record stands at 4W 1D 3L across their last 8 away games, a 1.62 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.18 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dnipro-1's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dnipro-1 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Mariupol are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 2.41 conceded per game recently; Dnipro-1 are on 1.88 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Mariupol have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: Dnipro-1 in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Mariupol
Blended
Dnipro-1
Blended
FC Mariupol (Home) vs Dnipro-1 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Mariupol
Blended
Dnipro-1
Blended
❓ FC Mariupol vs Dnipro-1 Form FAQs
What form are FC Mariupol and Dnipro-1 in coming into this match?
FC Mariupol have gone 2W 2D 13L in their last 17 games (0.47 PPG), while Dnipro-1 have gone 12W 1D 4L in their last 17 (2.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Mariupol at home or Dnipro-1 away?
Dnipro-1's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Mariupol at home: 0.00 PPG; Dnipro-1 away: 1.62 PPG.
Have FC Mariupol or Dnipro-1 been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Mariupol have kept a clean sheet in 6% of their recent games, Dnipro-1 in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from August 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 10 December 2021, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
FC Mariupol
0
Draws
2
Dnipro-1
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Mariupol vs Dnipro-1 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Mariupol and Dnipro-1?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Mariupol have won 0, Dnipro-1 have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Mariupol and Dnipro-1 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 December 2021: FC Mariupol 0-3 Dnipro-1.
Who has won more matches between FC Mariupol and Dnipro-1?
Dnipro-1 have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Mariupol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Dnipro-1 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Mariupol 62%, Dnipro-1 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for FC Mariupol and 50% for Dnipro-1. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 12% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dnipro-1 in 38%; FC Mariupol have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Mariupol home games / Dnipro-1 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Mariupol vs Dnipro-1 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Mariupol and Dnipro-1 matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of FC Mariupol's recent matches and 38% of Dnipro-1's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are FC Mariupol and Dnipro-1 matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of FC Mariupol's matches and 50% of Dnipro-1's.
Do FC Mariupol and Dnipro-1 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of FC Mariupol's recent matches and 88% of Dnipro-1's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Dnipro-1 run riot with a 0-3 hammering of FC Mariupol.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dnipro-1 beat FC Mariupol 0-3 at Stadion im. Volodymyra Boyka, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Mariupol 0.92 xG and Dnipro-1 1.58 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. FC Mariupol fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Dnipro-1 outscored their 1.58 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Mariupol attack 0.81 / defence 1.66 against Dnipro-1 attack 0.80 / defence 1.03, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Mariupol 22% | Draw 25% | Dnipro-1 53%, with Dnipro-1 to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Mariupol 71%, Dnipro-1 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Mariupol's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dnipro-1's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Dnipro-1 arrived the stronger side — 2.18 PPG against 0.47. That form edge translated into the three points. FC Mariupol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward. Dnipro-1 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.