Uthai Thani vs Sisaket United – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Uthai Thani at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Uthai Thani vs Sisaket United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 10 as Uthai Thani welcome Sisaket United to Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 27 November 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Uthai Thani stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Uthai Thani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Uthai Thani's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Uthai Thani are significantly better at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Sisaket United have recorded 0W 0D 1L from 1 outings — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 3.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Sisaket United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Uthai Thani carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 0.90 vs 0.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Uthai Thani 1.95 xG and Sisaket United 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Uthai Thani attack 1.045 / defence 0.993 | Sisaket United attack 0.877 / defence 1.295. League average goals — home 1.438 / away 0.918. Sisaket United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.295 — this is suppressing Uthai Thani's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Uthai Thani games / 1 Sisaket United games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Uthai Thani 64% | Draw 22% | Sisaket United 14%. Fair-value odds: Uthai Thani 1.56 | Draw 4.55 | Sisaket United 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Uthai Thani (64%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Uthai Thani as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Uthai Thani vs Sisaket United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 27 Nov 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Uthai Thani 64% | Draw 22% | Sisaket United 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 48% | xG Uthai Thani 1.95 / Sisaket United 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Uthai Thani attack 1.045 / def 0.993 | Sisaket United attack 0.877 / def 1.295 | league avg home 1.438 / away 0.918 • Poisson stance: Uthai Thani (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Uthai Thani xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Sisaket United xG
48%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Uthai Thani vs Sisaket United kick off?
Uthai Thani vs Sisaket United is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Friday 27 November 2026 at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium.
Where is Uthai Thani vs Sisaket United being played?
The match is being played at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium.
What competition is Uthai Thani vs Sisaket United part of?
Uthai Thani vs Sisaket United is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Uthai Thani vs Sisaket United?
Our statistical model gives Uthai Thani a 64% chance of winning, Sisaket United a 14% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Uthai Thani the favourite.
Will both teams score in Uthai Thani vs Sisaket United?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Uthai Thani and Sisaket United will score (BTTS).
Will Uthai Thani vs Sisaket United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Sisaket United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Uthai Thani and Sisaket United in?
Uthai Thani (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Sisaket United (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Uthai Thani's attack at 1.04x the league average against Sisaket United's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 1.95 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sisaket United's attack versus Uthai Thani's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/1 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (11.3%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Uthai Thani Win
64%
1.57
22%
4.48
14%
7.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Uthai Thani xG
Total xG
2.75
0.80
Sisaket United xG
1.57
64%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
7.16
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
14%
7.00
Win to Nil
29%
3.49
2%
50.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.5 | 10.0 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.9 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Uthai Thani vs Sisaket United?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Uthai Thani and Sisaket United expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Uthai Thani and 0.80 for Sisaket United, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Uthai Thani vs Sisaket United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Uthai Thani's recent record stands at 1W 0D 0L from 1 games, a 3.00 PPG return, with W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Uthai Thani, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sisaket United, meanwhile, have gone 0W 0D 1L across 1 games — 0.00 PPG, with L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Sisaket United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Uthai Thani by 3.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sisaket United heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Uthai Thani are averaging 4.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Sisaket United are on 1.00 scored and 3.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Uthai Thani have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Sisaket United in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Uthai Thani
Early Season
Sisaket United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Uthai Thani and Sisaket United in coming into this match?
Uthai Thani have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Sisaket United have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Uthai Thani home games / Sisaket United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Uthai Thani play Sisaket United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Uthai Thani's games and 100% of Sisaket United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Uthai Thani vs Sisaket United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Uthai Thani's matches and 100% of Sisaket United's.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.