Uthai Thani 2-3 Ratchaburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ratchaburi at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Uthai Thani vs Ratchaburi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Uthai Thani and Ratchaburi meet at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 26 October 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Uthai Thani have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 0W 6D 4L. Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Uthai Thani, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Uthai Thani's home record at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium: 1W 7D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ratchaburi (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ratchaburi's form when playing away from home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Ratchaburi arrive in superior form — a 1.60 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Uthai Thani have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Ratchaburi in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Uthai Thani lead 1W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Jan 2025, ended 1–2 with Ratchaburi winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Uthai Thani — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Ratchaburi — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Uthai Thani 60% versus Ratchaburi 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Uthai Thani 42% | Ratchaburi 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Uthai Thani 0.98 xG and Ratchaburi 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Uthai Thani attack 0.765 / defence 1.149 | Ratchaburi attack 1.263 / defence 0.827. League average goals — home 1.553 / away 1.116. Uthai Thani's attack strength of 0.765 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Ratchaburi have an above-average attack strength of 1.263 — the away xG of 1.62 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 38 Uthai Thani games / 38 Ratchaburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Uthai Thani 21% | Draw 30% | Ratchaburi 50%. Fair-value odds: Uthai Thani 4.76 | Draw 3.33 | Ratchaburi 2.00. Ratchaburi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ratchaburi are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Uthai Thani 80% | Ratchaburi 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Uthai Thani vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Oct 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Uthai Thani 21% | Draw 30% | Ratchaburi 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Uthai Thani 0.98 / Ratchaburi 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Uthai Thani attack 0.765 / def 1.149 | Ratchaburi attack 1.263 / def 0.827 | league avg home 1.553 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Uthai Thani xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Ratchaburi xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Uthai Thani vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Uthai Thani vs Ratchaburi kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 26 October 2025 at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium.
What was the final score in Uthai Thani vs Ratchaburi?
Uthai Thani 2 - 3 Ratchaburi.
Where is Uthai Thani vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium.
What competition is Uthai Thani vs Ratchaburi part of?
Uthai Thani vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Uthai Thani vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Uthai Thani a 21% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 50% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Uthai Thani vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Uthai Thani and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Uthai Thani vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Ratchaburi?
Record (4 meetings): Uthai Thani 1W | Draws 1 | Ratchaburi 2W.
What form are Uthai Thani and Ratchaburi in?
Uthai Thani (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. Ratchaburi (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Uthai Thani's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Ratchaburi's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. Flip it around — Ratchaburi's attack (1.26x) against Uthai Thani's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.62.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.5%), 0-2 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
21%
4.87
30%
3.37
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
0 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Uthai Thani xG
Total xG
2.60
1.62
Ratchaburi xG
4.87
21%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
20%
5.05
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
4%
24.63
19%
5.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 12.0 | 9.7 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.8 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.8 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Uthai Thani vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Uthai Thani and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Uthai Thani and 1.62 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Uthai Thani vs Ratchaburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Uthai Thani come into this having played 38 games, going 9W 14D 15L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-D. The sample for Uthai Thani is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ratchaburi sit at 1.79 PPG from 38 outings (20W 8D 10L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ratchaburi carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.71 PPG clear of Uthai Thani — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Uthai Thani's home form reads 6W 9D 4L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, Ratchaburi have taken 1.58 points per game from 19 outings (9W 3D 7L).
Attack vs Defence
Uthai Thani are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 2.05 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Uthai Thani have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Uthai Thani
Blended
Ratchaburi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Uthai Thani and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Uthai Thani have gone 9W 14D 15L in their last 38 games (1.08 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 20W 8D 10L in their last 38 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Uthai Thani at home or Ratchaburi away?
Ratchaburi's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Uthai Thani at home: 1.42 PPG; Ratchaburi away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Uthai Thani or Ratchaburi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Uthai Thani have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Ratchaburi in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Ratchaburi have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Uthai Thani have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Ratchaburi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Uthai Thani
1
Draws
4
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Ratchaburi?
From 6 meetings on record, Uthai Thani have won 1, Ratchaburi have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Uthai Thani and Ratchaburi last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Ratchaburi 3-1 Uthai Thani.
Who has won more matches between Uthai Thani and Ratchaburi?
Ratchaburi have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Ratchaburi see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Uthai Thani 63%, Ratchaburi 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Uthai Thani) and 58% (Ratchaburi).
On the defensive side: Ratchaburi in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Uthai Thani home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Uthai Thani play Ratchaburi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Uthai Thani's games and 58% of Ratchaburi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Uthai Thani vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Uthai Thani's recent games and 58% of Ratchaburi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Uthai Thani and Ratchaburi tend to score early?
Uthai Thani have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Ratchaburi in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ratchaburi edge out Uthai Thani 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ratchaburi beat Uthai Thani 2-3 at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Uthai Thani 0.98 xG and Ratchaburi 1.62 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Uthai Thani beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ratchaburi outscored their 1.62 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Uthai Thani attack 0.77 / defence 1.15 against Ratchaburi attack 1.26 / defence 0.83, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Uthai Thani 21% | Draw 30% | Ratchaburi 50%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Uthai Thani 42%, Ratchaburi 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Uthai Thani's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Ratchaburi's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ratchaburi arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.08. Form held, and they took the win. Uthai Thani (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.