Trat FC 4-2 Police Tero – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trat FC at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Trat FC vs Police Tero fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Police Tero travel to Trat Provincial Central Stadium to take on Trat FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 April 2024, 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Trat FC — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Trat FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trat FC at Trat Provincial Central Stadium this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Trat FC are significantly better at Trat Provincial Central Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Police Tero have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Police Tero, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Police Tero's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Trat FC 0.60 PPG, Police Tero 0.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Trat FC, 0 for Police Tero and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Dec 2023, ended 3–1 with Trat FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Trat FC in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Police Tero in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Trat FC 68% and Police Tero 76% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Trat FC 68% | Police Tero 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trat FC 2.29 xG and Police Tero 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trat FC attack 0.991 / defence 1.335 | Police Tero attack 0.956 / defence 1.378. League average goals — home 1.679 / away 1.200. Police Tero bring a strong defensive rating of 1.378 — this is suppressing Trat FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Trat FC games / 55 Police Tero games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trat FC 55% | Draw 20% | Police Tero 25%. Fair-value odds: Trat FC 1.82 | Draw 5.00 | Police Tero 4.00. The model has a clear lean to Trat FC (55%) — a 30pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.82. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.82 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (2.29 / 1.53) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Trat FC are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.82 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 70% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Trat FC 80% | Police Tero 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trat FC vs Police Tero | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Trat Provincial Central Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Apr 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trat FC 55% | Draw 20% | Police Tero 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 70% | xG Trat FC 2.29 / Police Tero 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Trat FC attack 0.991 / def 1.335 | Police Tero attack 0.956 / def 1.378 | league avg home 1.679 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Trat FC (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.29
Trat FC xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Police Tero xG
70%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trat FC vs Police Tero kick off?
Trat FC vs Police Tero kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 28 April 2024 at Trat Provincial Central Stadium.
What was the final score in Trat FC vs Police Tero?
Trat FC 4 - 2 Police Tero.
Where is Trat FC vs Police Tero being played?
The match is being played at Trat Provincial Central Stadium.
What competition is Trat FC vs Police Tero part of?
Trat FC vs Police Tero is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Trat FC vs Police Tero?
Our statistical model gives Trat FC a 55% chance of winning, Police Tero a 25% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Trat FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trat FC vs Police Tero?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Trat FC and Police Tero will score (BTTS).
Will Trat FC vs Police Tero have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trat FC and Police Tero?
Record (1 meetings): Trat FC 1W | Draws 0 | Police Tero 0W.
What form are Trat FC and Police Tero in?
Trat FC (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Police Tero (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Trat FC's attack rating (0.99) and Police Tero's defence rating (1.38), the model arrives at 2.29 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Police Tero's attack versus Trat FC's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.7%), 2-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Trat FC Win
55%
1.83
20%
5.01
25%
3.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.7%
Draw
2 – 2
6.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.29
Trat FC xG
Total xG
3.82
1.53
Police Tero xG
1.83
55%
Home win
5.01
20%
Draw
3.95
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.42
30%
BTTS No
3.39
Clean Sheet
22%
4.62
10%
9.89
Win to Nil
12%
8.45
3%
39.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 7.7 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.8 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 6.7 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trat FC vs Police Tero?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.8%.
How many goals are Trat FC and Police Tero expected to score?
The model projects 2.29 expected goals for Trat FC and 1.53 for Police Tero, a combined total of 3.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Trat FC vs Police Tero?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Trat FC come into this having played 25 games, going 5W 7D 13L for 0.88 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-D. The sample for Trat FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Police Tero sit at 0.96 PPG from 25 outings (6W 6D 13L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Police Tero is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Trat FC on 0.88 PPG, Police Tero on 0.96. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Trat FC's home form reads 4W 4D 4L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.88 PPG overall — Trat FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Police Tero have taken 0.92 points per game from 12 outings (3W 2D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trat FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Trat FC are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.96 conceded per game recently; Police Tero are on 1.24 scored and 2.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trat FC have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Police Tero in 76%.
Last 25 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trat FC
Blended
Police Tero
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trat FC and Police Tero in coming into this match?
Trat FC have gone 5W 7D 13L in their last 25 games (0.88 PPG), while Police Tero have gone 6W 6D 13L in their last 25 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trat FC at home or Police Tero away?
Trat FC's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trat FC at home: 1.33 PPG; Police Tero away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Trat FC and Police Tero runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Trat FC
0
Draws
0
Police Tero
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trat FC and Police Tero?
From 2 meetings on record, Trat FC have won 2, Police Tero have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Trat FC and Police Tero last play each other?
They last met on 28 April 2024, when Trat FC 4-2 Police Tero.
Who has won more matches between Trat FC and Police Tero?
Trat FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Trat FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Police Tero are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Trat FC at 75%, Police Tero at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Trat FC and 67% for Police Tero. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trat FC home games / Police Tero away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trat FC play Police Tero?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Trat FC's games and 75% of Police Tero's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Trat FC vs Police Tero usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Trat FC's matches and 67% of Police Tero's.
Do Trat FC and Police Tero tend to score early?
Trat FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Police Tero in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Trat FC cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Police Tero.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trat FC beat Police Tero 4-2 at Trat Provincial Central Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trat FC 2.29 xG and Police Tero 1.53 xG, a combined 3.82. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Trat FC beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trat FC attack 0.99 / defence 1.33 against Police Tero attack 0.96 / defence 1.38, drawn from 25/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trat FC 55% | Draw 20% | Police Tero 25%, with Trat FC to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trat FC 68%, Police Tero 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 72%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trat FC's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Police Tero's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trat FC 0.88 PPG, Police Tero 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Trat FC win broke the near-deadlock. Trat FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm. Police Tero (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.