Rayong FC 1-1 Bangkok United – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Rayong FC at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rayong FC vs Bangkok United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 30 as Rayong FC welcome Bangkok United to Rayong Provincial Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 10 May 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rayong FC stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Rayong FC have posted 5W 4D 1L at Rayong Provincial Stadium — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Rayong FC are significantly better at Rayong Provincial Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Bangkok United — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Bangkok United away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Bangkok United's 1.30 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Rayong FC's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Rayong FC have won 0, Bangkok United 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2025, ended 2–3 with Bangkok United winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Rayong FC trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Bangkok United trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rayong FC 73% and Bangkok United 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rayong FC 61% | Bangkok United 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rayong FC 1.38 xG and Bangkok United 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rayong FC attack 1.181 / defence 0.954 | Bangkok United attack 0.803 / defence 0.771. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.027. Bangkok United's defence strength of 0.771 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 59 Rayong FC games / 59 Bangkok United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rayong FC 48% | Draw 33% | Bangkok United 19%. Fair-value odds: Rayong FC 2.08 | Draw 3.03 | Bangkok United 5.26. Rayong FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rayong FC at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bangkok United (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rayong FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.16 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Rayong FC 70% | Bangkok United 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rayong FC vs Bangkok United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Rayong Provincial Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rayong FC 48% | Draw 33% | Bangkok United 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Rayong FC 1.38 / Bangkok United 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Rayong FC attack 1.181 / def 0.954 | Bangkok United attack 0.803 / def 0.771 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.027 • Poisson stance: Rayong FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Rayong FC xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Bangkok United xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rayong FC vs Bangkok United kick off?
Rayong FC vs Bangkok United kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 10 May 2026 at Rayong Provincial Stadium.
What was the final score in Rayong FC vs Bangkok United?
Rayong FC 1 - 1 Bangkok United.
Where is Rayong FC vs Bangkok United being played?
The match is being played at Rayong Provincial Stadium.
What competition is Rayong FC vs Bangkok United part of?
Rayong FC vs Bangkok United is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Rayong FC vs Bangkok United?
Our statistical model gives Rayong FC a 48% chance of winning, Bangkok United a 19% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Rayong FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rayong FC vs Bangkok United?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Rayong FC and Bangkok United will score (BTTS).
Will Rayong FC vs Bangkok United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rayong FC and Bangkok United?
Record (3 meetings): Rayong FC 0W | Draws 1 | Bangkok United 2W.
What form are Rayong FC and Bangkok United in?
Rayong FC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Bangkok United (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Rayong FC's attack at 1.18x the league average against Bangkok United's defence at 0.77x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bangkok United's attack versus Rayong FC's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.1%), 0-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rayong FC Win
48%
2.07
33%
3.04
19%
5.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Rayong FC xG
Total xG
2.16
0.79
Bangkok United xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
5.30
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
22%
4.55
5%
20.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 9.1 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 12.5 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 8.6 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rayong FC vs Bangkok United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Rayong FC and Bangkok United expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Rayong FC and 0.79 for Bangkok United, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Rayong FC vs Bangkok United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rayong FC come into this having played 59 games, going 17W 17D 25L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-L.
On the other side, Bangkok United sit at 2.00 PPG from 59 outings (34W 16D 9L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-W across their last five.
Bangkok United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.85 PPG clear of Rayong FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Rayong FC's home form reads 12W 10D 7L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.59 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.15 PPG overall — Rayong FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Bangkok United have taken 1.76 points per game from 29 outings (14W 9D 6L).
The Goals Picture
Rayong FC are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Bangkok United are on 1.78 scored and 1.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rayong FC have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Defensively: Bangkok United in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rayong FC
Current Season
Bangkok United
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rayong FC and Bangkok United in coming into this match?
Rayong FC have gone 17W 17D 25L in their last 59 games (1.15 PPG), while Bangkok United have gone 34W 16D 9L in their last 59 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rayong FC at home or Bangkok United away?
Bangkok United's away record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rayong FC at home: 1.59 PPG; Bangkok United away: 1.76 PPG.
Have Rayong FC or Bangkok United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rayong FC have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Bangkok United in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rayong FC and Bangkok United runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Sep 2024, when Bangkok United won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rayong FC's record when hosting Bangkok United specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Rayong FC
2
Draws
2
Bangkok United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rayong FC and Bangkok United?
From 4 meetings on record, Rayong FC have won 0, Bangkok United have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rayong FC and Bangkok United last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Rayong FC 1-1 Bangkok United.
Who has won more matches between Rayong FC and Bangkok United?
Bangkok United have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rayong FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 28% of those situations.
Bangkok United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rayong FC 76%, Bangkok United 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Rayong FC) and 41% (Bangkok United).
On the defensive side: Bangkok United in 45%; Bangkok United in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rayong FC home games / Bangkok United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rayong FC play Bangkok United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of Rayong FC's games and 45% of Bangkok United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rayong FC vs Bangkok United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Rayong FC's recent games and 41% of Bangkok United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rayong FC and Bangkok United tend to score early?
Rayong FC have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Bangkok United in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rayong FC and Bangkok United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rayong FC and Bangkok United finished level at 1-1 at Rayong Provincial Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayong FC 1.38 xG and Bangkok United 0.79 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayong FC attack 1.18 / defence 0.95 against Bangkok United attack 0.80 / defence 0.77, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rayong FC 48% | Draw 33% | Bangkok United 19%, with Rayong FC to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayong FC 61%, Bangkok United 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rayong FC's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Bangkok United's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bangkok United arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.