Ratchaburi 3-2 Prachuap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ratchaburi at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ratchaburi vs Prachuap encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ratchaburi host Prachuap at Ratchaburi Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 28 March 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ratchaburi — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ratchaburi have posted 7W 3D 0L at Ratchaburi Stadium — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Ratchaburi Stadium.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Prachuap stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Prachuap have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Ratchaburi carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Ratchaburi, 3 for Prachuap and 1 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2024, ended 2–3 with Prachuap winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Ratchaburi trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Prachuap trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ratchaburi 51% versus Prachuap 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 53% | Prachuap 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 2.00 xG and Prachuap 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 1.119 / defence 0.830 | Prachuap attack 1.006 / defence 1.083. League average goals — home 1.650 / away 1.132. Data: 55 Ratchaburi games / 55 Prachuap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 62% | Draw 21% | Prachuap 17%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 1.61 | Draw 4.76 | Prachuap 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Ratchaburi (62%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ratchaburi are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Ratchaburi 40% | Prachuap 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Prachuap | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Ratchaburi Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 28 Mar 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 62% | Draw 21% | Prachuap 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 53% | xG Ratchaburi 2.00 / Prachuap 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 1.119 / def 0.830 | Prachuap attack 1.006 / def 1.083 | league avg home 1.650 / away 1.132 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Prachuap xG
53%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ratchaburi vs Prachuap kick off?
Ratchaburi vs Prachuap kicked off at 12:00 on Friday 28 March 2025 at Ratchaburi Stadium.
What was the final score in Ratchaburi vs Prachuap?
Ratchaburi 3 - 2 Prachuap.
Where is Ratchaburi vs Prachuap being played?
The match is being played at Ratchaburi Stadium.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs Prachuap part of?
Ratchaburi vs Prachuap is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs Prachuap?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 62% chance of winning, Prachuap a 17% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs Prachuap?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Ratchaburi and Prachuap will score (BTTS).
Will Ratchaburi vs Prachuap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Prachuap?
Record (7 meetings): Ratchaburi 3W | Draws 1 | Prachuap 3W.
What form are Ratchaburi and Prachuap in?
Ratchaburi (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Prachuap (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ratchaburi's attack at 1.12x the league average against Prachuap's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 2.00 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Prachuap's attack versus Ratchaburi's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.5%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
62%
1.62
21%
4.69
17%
5.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
2.95
0.94
Prachuap xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.69
21%
Draw
5.90
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
14%
7.40
Win to Nil
24%
4.17
2%
43.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs Prachuap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and Prachuap expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 0.94 for Prachuap, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs Prachuap?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ratchaburi come into this having played 55 games, going 22W 13D 20L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-L. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Prachuap sit at 1.29 PPG from 55 outings (18W 17D 20L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ratchaburi on 1.44 PPG, Prachuap on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Ratchaburi's home form reads 15W 5D 7L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.85 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.44 PPG overall — Ratchaburi are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Prachuap have taken 0.59 points per game from 27 outings (2W 10D 15L). That's a step down from their 1.29 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Prachuap's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ratchaburi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ratchaburi are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Prachuap are on 1.33 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Blended
Prachuap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ratchaburi and Prachuap in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 22W 13D 20L in their last 55 games (1.44 PPG), while Prachuap have gone 18W 17D 20L in their last 55 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ratchaburi at home or Prachuap away?
Ratchaburi's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ratchaburi at home: 1.85 PPG; Prachuap away: 0.59 PPG.
Have Ratchaburi or Prachuap been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ratchaburi have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Prachuap in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Nov 2022, when Ratchaburi won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ratchaburi's record when hosting Prachuap specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Ratchaburi
2
Draws
4
Prachuap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Prachuap?
From 10 meetings on record, Ratchaburi have won 4, Prachuap have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ratchaburi and Prachuap last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Ratchaburi 1-1 Prachuap.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ratchaburi 52%, Prachuap 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Ratchaburi) and 41% (Prachuap).
On the defensive side: Ratchaburi keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Prachuap in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / Prachuap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ratchaburi play Prachuap?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Ratchaburi's recent matches and 56% of Prachuap's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ratchaburi vs Prachuap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Ratchaburi's recent games and 41% of Prachuap's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ratchaburi and Prachuap tend to score early?
Ratchaburi have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Prachuap in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ratchaburi edge out Prachuap 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ratchaburi beat Prachuap 3-2 at Ratchaburi Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 2.00 xG and Prachuap 0.94 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Ratchaburi beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Prachuap outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 1.12 / defence 0.83 against Prachuap attack 1.01 / defence 1.08, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 62% | Draw 21% | Prachuap 17%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 53%, Prachuap 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ratchaburi's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Prachuap's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ratchaburi 1.44 PPG, Prachuap 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ratchaburi win broke the near-deadlock. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Prachuap (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.