Ratchaburi vs Buriram United – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ratchaburi at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ratchaburi vs Buriram United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ratchaburi and Buriram United meet at Dragon Solar Park in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Ratchaburi (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Ratchaburi have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ratchaburi's home record at Dragon Solar Park: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Buriram United's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Buriram United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Buriram United's away record: 7W 1D 2L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.20 PPG for Ratchaburi against 2.00 for Buriram United. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Across the last 10 meetings, Buriram United have the stronger historical record — 6 wins to Ratchaburi's 1, with 3 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 10 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Buriram United have won 6 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Ratchaburi — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Buriram United — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ratchaburi 57% versus Buriram United 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 54% | Buriram United 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 1.81 xG and Buriram United 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 1.486 / defence 0.766 | Buriram United attack 1.156 / defence 0.803. League average goals — home 1.517 / away 1.284. Ratchaburi carry an above-average attack strength of 1.486 — their λ of 1.81 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Ratchaburi's defence rating of 0.766 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 34 Ratchaburi games / 34 Buriram United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 52% | Draw 24% | Buriram United 23%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | Buriram United 4.35. Ratchaburi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ratchaburi as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ratchaburi 60% | Buriram United 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Buriram United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Dragon Solar Park • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Nov 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 52% | Draw 24% | Buriram United 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 57% | xG Ratchaburi 1.81 / Buriram United 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 1.486 / def 0.766 | Buriram United attack 1.156 / def 0.803 | league avg home 1.517 / away 1.284 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Buriram United xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ratchaburi vs Buriram United kick off?
Ratchaburi vs Buriram United is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 8 November 2026 at Dragon Solar Park.
Where is Ratchaburi vs Buriram United being played?
The match is being played at Dragon Solar Park.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs Buriram United part of?
Ratchaburi vs Buriram United is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs Buriram United?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 52% chance of winning, Buriram United a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs Buriram United?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Ratchaburi and Buriram United will score (BTTS).
Will Ratchaburi vs Buriram United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Buriram United?
Record (10 meetings): Ratchaburi 1W | Draws 3 | Buriram United 6W.
What form are Ratchaburi and Buriram United in?
Ratchaburi (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Buriram United (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Ratchaburi's attacking strength (1.49x league average) is weighed against Buriram United's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.81. Flip it around — Buriram United's attack (1.16x) against Ratchaburi's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
52%
1.91
24%
4.11
23%
4.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
2.95
1.14
Buriram United xG
1.91
52%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
4.32
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
16%
6.11
Win to Nil
17%
5.94
4%
26.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 10.8 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs Buriram United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and Buriram United expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 1.14 for Buriram United, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs Buriram United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ratchaburi come into this having played 35 games, going 21W 6D 8L for 1.97 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Ratchaburi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Buriram United sit at 2.37 PPG from 35 outings (26W 5D 4L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Buriram United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Buriram United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.40 PPG clear of Ratchaburi — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Ratchaburi's home form reads 10W 4D 3L across 17 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Buriram United have taken 2.24 points per game from 17 outings (12W 2D 3L).
Attack vs Defence
Ratchaburi are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Buriram United are on 2.43 scored and 1.00 conceded. Ratchaburi's scoring rate against Buriram United's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Buriram United in 60%.
Last 35 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Early Season
Buriram United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ratchaburi and Buriram United in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 21W 6D 8L in their last 35 games (1.97 PPG), while Buriram United have gone 26W 5D 4L in their last 35 (2.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ratchaburi at home or Buriram United away?
Buriram United's away record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ratchaburi at home: 2.00 PPG; Buriram United away: 2.24 PPG.
Have Ratchaburi or Buriram United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ratchaburi have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Buriram United in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Buriram United won 6-0 on 8 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ratchaburi have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Buriram United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Ratchaburi
3
Draws
6
Buriram United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Buriram United?
From 10 meetings on record, Ratchaburi have won 1, Buriram United have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ratchaburi and Buriram United last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Ratchaburi 2-2 Buriram United.
Who has won more matches between Ratchaburi and Buriram United?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ratchaburi 47%, Buriram United 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Ratchaburi) and 71% (Buriram United). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ratchaburi keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Buriram United in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / Buriram United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ratchaburi play Buriram United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Ratchaburi's recent matches and 59% of Buriram United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ratchaburi vs Buriram United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Ratchaburi's matches and 71% of Buriram United's.
Do Ratchaburi and Buriram United tend to score early?
Ratchaburi have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Buriram United in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.