Nong Bua Pitchaya 6-1 Khon Kaen United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nong Bua Pitchaya at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Khon Kaen United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Khon Kaen United make the trip to Pitchaya Stadium to face Nong Bua Pitchaya in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Sunday 3 November 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Nong Bua Pitchaya (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Nong Bua Pitchaya, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Pitchaya Stadium, Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 3W 1D 2L this season (6 games, 1.67 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Khon Kaen United have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: D D L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Khon Kaen United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Khon Kaen United's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Nong Bua Pitchaya's favour (1.20 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Nong Bua Pitchaya lead 1W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.8 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2023, ended 1–2 with Khon Kaen United winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Nong Bua Pitchaya — key trading statistics (11 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 64%.
Khon Kaen United — key trading statistics (11 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games); they fail to score in 73% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nong Bua Pitchaya 73% versus Khon Kaen United 18%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nong Bua Pitchaya 82% | Khon Kaen United 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.71 xG and Khon Kaen United 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 1.228 / defence 1.516 | Khon Kaen United attack 0.804 / defence 0.822. League average goals — home 1.694 / away 1.110. Data: 11 Nong Bua Pitchaya games / 41 Khon Kaen United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nong Bua Pitchaya 43% | Draw 29% | Khon Kaen United 28%. Fair-value odds: Nong Bua Pitchaya 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | Khon Kaen United 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.71 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nong Bua Pitchaya are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nong Bua Pitchaya if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Nong Bua Pitchaya 67% | Khon Kaen United 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Khon Kaen United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Pitchaya Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Nov 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nong Bua Pitchaya 43% | Draw 29% | Khon Kaen United 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 63% | xG Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.71 / Khon Kaen United 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 1.228 / def 1.516 | Khon Kaen United attack 0.804 / def 0.822 | league avg home 1.694 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Nong Bua Pitchaya (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Khon Kaen United xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Khon Kaen United kick off?
Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Khon Kaen United kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 3 November 2024 at Pitchaya Stadium.
What was the final score in Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Khon Kaen United?
Nong Bua Pitchaya 6 - 1 Khon Kaen United.
Where is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Khon Kaen United being played?
The match is being played at Pitchaya Stadium.
What competition is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Khon Kaen United part of?
Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Khon Kaen United is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Khon Kaen United?
Our statistical model gives Nong Bua Pitchaya a 43% chance of winning, Khon Kaen United a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Nong Bua Pitchaya the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Khon Kaen United?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Nong Bua Pitchaya and Khon Kaen United will score (BTTS).
Will Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Khon Kaen United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Khon Kaen United?
Record (4 meetings): Nong Bua Pitchaya 1W | Draws 1 | Khon Kaen United 2W.
What form are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Khon Kaen United in?
Nong Bua Pitchaya (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Khon Kaen United (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Khon Kaen United?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Nong Bua Pitchaya's attacking strength (1.23x league average) is weighed against Khon Kaen United's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.71. Flip it around — Khon Kaen United's attack (0.80x) against Nong Bua Pitchaya's defence (1.52x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 11/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Nong Bua Pitchaya Win
43%
2.31
29%
3.47
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
Total xG
3.06
1.35
Khon Kaen United xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
18%
5.53
Win to Nil
11%
8.92
5%
19.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.3 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 10.8 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.2 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.3 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Khon Kaen United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Khon Kaen United expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Nong Bua Pitchaya and 1.35 for Khon Kaen United, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Khon Kaen United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 11 outings, Nong Bua Pitchaya have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 3W 3D 5L record — W-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Nong Bua Pitchaya is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Khon Kaen United's form line: 1W 4D 6L from 11 games, 0.64 PPG, last five D-D-L-W-D. The sample for Khon Kaen United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Nong Bua Pitchaya are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Khon Kaen United.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Nong Bua Pitchaya have posted 1.75 PPG from 4 outings (2W 1D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.09 PPG overall — Nong Bua Pitchaya are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Khon Kaen United have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nong Bua Pitchaya come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nong Bua Pitchaya are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 2.36 conceded per game recently; Khon Kaen United are on 0.27 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nong Bua Pitchaya have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games; Khon Kaen United in 18%.
Defensively: Khon Kaen United in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Blended
Khon Kaen United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Khon Kaen United in coming into this match?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 3W 3D 5L in their last 11 games (1.09 PPG), while Khon Kaen United have gone 1W 4D 6L in their last 11 (0.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nong Bua Pitchaya at home or Khon Kaen United away?
Nong Bua Pitchaya's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nong Bua Pitchaya at home: 1.75 PPG; Khon Kaen United away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Nong Bua Pitchaya or Khon Kaen United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have kept a clean sheet in 9% of their recent games, Khon Kaen United in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Nong Bua Pitchaya have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Nong Bua Pitchaya won 6-1 on 3 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Khon Kaen United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Nong Bua Pitchaya
1
Draws
2
Khon Kaen United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Khon Kaen United?
From 6 meetings on record, Nong Bua Pitchaya have won 3, Khon Kaen United have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nong Bua Pitchaya and Khon Kaen United last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when Khon Kaen United 0-1 Nong Bua Pitchaya.
Who has won more matches between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Khon Kaen United?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nong Bua Pitchaya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Khon Kaen United see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nong Bua Pitchaya 75%, Khon Kaen United 0% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Nong Bua Pitchaya) and 0% (Khon Kaen United).
On the defensive side: Khon Kaen United in 50%; Khon Kaen United in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nong Bua Pitchaya home games / Khon Kaen United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nong Bua Pitchaya play Khon Kaen United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's recent matches and 0% of Khon Kaen United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Khon Kaen United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's recent games and 0% of Khon Kaen United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nong Bua Pitchaya and Khon Kaen United tend to score early?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Khon Kaen United in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Nong Bua Pitchaya run riot with a 6-1 hammering of Khon Kaen United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nong Bua Pitchaya beat Khon Kaen United 6-1 at Pitchaya Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.71 xG and Khon Kaen United 1.35 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 6-1 for 7 actual goals. Nong Bua Pitchaya beat their projection by 4.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 1.23 / defence 1.52 against Khon Kaen United attack 0.80 / defence 0.82, drawn from 11/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nong Bua Pitchaya 43% | Draw 29% | Khon Kaen United 28%, with Nong Bua Pitchaya to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nong Bua Pitchaya 82%, Khon Kaen United 27%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nong Bua Pitchaya's trading profile (11 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Khon Kaen United's trading profile (11 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 18% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Nong Bua Pitchaya arrived the stronger side — 1.09 PPG against 0.64. Form held, and they took the win. Nong Bua Pitchaya (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Khon Kaen United (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.