Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1-1 Muangthong United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nakhon Ratchasima FC at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Muangthong United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 3 as Nakhon Ratchasima FC welcome Muangthong United to His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 28 August 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nakhon Ratchasima FC stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Nakhon Ratchasima FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have posted 3W 2D 5L at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Muangthong United — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Muangthong United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Muangthong United's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.30 PPG, Muangthong United 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, 1 for Muangthong United and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2022, ended 2–0 with Nakhon Ratchasima FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Nakhon Ratchasima FC in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Muangthong United in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50% versus Muangthong United 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50% | Muangthong United 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.14 xG and Muangthong United 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.950 / defence 1.084 | Muangthong United attack 0.812 / defence 0.944. League average goals — home 1.272 / away 1.252. Data: 32 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games / 32 Muangthong United games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 37% | Draw 29% | Muangthong United 35%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | Muangthong United 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Nakhon Ratchasima FC as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nakhon Ratchasima FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.24 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 40% | Muangthong United 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Muangthong United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Aug 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 37% | Draw 29% | Muangthong United 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.14 / Muangthong United 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.950 / def 1.084 | Muangthong United attack 0.812 / def 0.944 | league avg home 1.272 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: Nakhon Ratchasima FC (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Muangthong United xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Muangthong United kick off?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Muangthong United kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 28 August 2022 at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium.
What was the final score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Muangthong United?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1 - 1 Muangthong United.
Where is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Muangthong United being played?
The match is being played at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium.
What competition is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Muangthong United part of?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Muangthong United is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Muangthong United?
Our statistical model gives Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 37% chance of winning, Muangthong United a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Nakhon Ratchasima FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Muangthong United?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Muangthong United will score (BTTS).
Will Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Muangthong United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Muangthong United?
Record (2 meetings): Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1W | Draws 0 | Muangthong United 1W.
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Muangthong United in?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Muangthong United (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack rating (0.95) and Muangthong United's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Muangthong United's attack versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nakhon Ratchasima FC Win
37%
2.74
29%
3.47
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Total xG
2.24
1.10
Muangthong United xG
2.74
37%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
12%
8.24
11%
9.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 11.7 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.3 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Muangthong United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Muangthong United expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 1.10 for Muangthong United, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Muangthong United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nakhon Ratchasima FC come into this having played 32 games, going 11W 7D 14L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Muangthong United sit at 1.56 PPG from 32 outings (13W 11D 8L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Muangthong United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nakhon Ratchasima FC on 1.25 PPG, Muangthong United on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's home form reads 7W 3D 6L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Muangthong United have taken 0.94 points per game from 16 outings (3W 6D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.56 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Muangthong United's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nakhon Ratchasima FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Muangthong United are on 1.50 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Muangthong United in 66%.
Last 32 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Early Season
Muangthong United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Muangthong United in coming into this match?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 11W 7D 14L in their last 32 games (1.25 PPG), while Muangthong United have gone 13W 11D 8L in their last 32 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home or Muangthong United away?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home: 1.50 PPG; Muangthong United away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Muangthong United runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Nov 2021, when Muangthong United won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's record when hosting Muangthong United specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
2
Draws
4
Muangthong United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Muangthong United?
From 8 meetings on record, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 2, Muangthong United have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Muangthong United last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Muangthong United 2-1 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Who has won more matches between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Muangthong United?
Muangthong United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Muangthong United see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 38%, Muangthong United 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Nakhon Ratchasima FC) and 25% (Muangthong United).
On the defensive side: Nakhon Ratchasima FC keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Muangthong United in 31%; Nakhon Ratchasima FC have failed to score in 31% of games; Muangthong United in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nakhon Ratchasima FC home games / Muangthong United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nakhon Ratchasima FC play Muangthong United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's recent matches and 44% of Muangthong United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Muangthong United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's recent games and 25% of Muangthong United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Muangthong United tend to score early?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Muangthong United in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Muangthong United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Muangthong United finished level at 1-1 at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.14 xG and Muangthong United 1.10 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.95 / defence 1.08 against Muangthong United attack 0.81 / defence 0.94, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Nakhon Ratchasima FC 37% | Draw 29% | Muangthong United 35%, with Nakhon Ratchasima FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50%, Muangthong United 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Muangthong United's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.25 PPG, Muangthong United 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.