Muangthong United 2-1 Nakhon Ratchasima FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Muangthong United at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Muangthong United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 20 as Muangthong United welcome Nakhon Ratchasima FC to Thunderdome Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 April 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Muangthong United stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Muangthong United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Muangthong United's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Thunderdome Stadium this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Nakhon Ratchasima FC are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Muangthong United, 2 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Muangthong United trading profile (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Nakhon Ratchasima FC trading profile (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Muangthong United 55% versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Muangthong United 54% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Muangthong United 1.26 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Muangthong United attack 0.786 / defence 1.098 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.784 / defence 1.099. League average goals — home 1.458 / away 1.099. Muangthong United's attack strength of 0.786 is below the league average — the 1.26 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 56 Muangthong United games / 56 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Muangthong United 41% | Draw 34% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 25%. Fair-value odds: Muangthong United 2.44 | Draw 2.94 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Muangthong United are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Nakhon Ratchasima FC (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Muangthong United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Muangthong United 50% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Muangthong United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Thunderdome Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Apr 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Muangthong United 41% | Draw 34% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 47% | xG Muangthong United 1.26 / Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Muangthong United attack 0.786 / def 1.098 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.784 / def 1.099 | league avg home 1.458 / away 1.099 • Poisson stance: Muangthong United (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Muangthong United xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Muangthong United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kick off?
Muangthong United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Thunderdome Stadium.
What was the final score in Muangthong United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Muangthong United 2 - 1 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Where is Muangthong United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC being played?
The match is being played at Thunderdome Stadium.
What competition is Muangthong United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC part of?
Muangthong United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Muangthong United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our statistical model gives Muangthong United a 41% chance of winning, Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 25% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Muangthong United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Muangthong United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Muangthong United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC will score (BTTS).
Will Muangthong United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Muangthong United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Record (7 meetings): Muangthong United 3W | Draws 2 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2W.
What form are Muangthong United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC in?
Muangthong United (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Muangthong United's attack rating (0.79) and Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack versus Muangthong United's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Muangthong United Win
41%
2.46
34%
2.91
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Muangthong United xG
Total xG
2.21
0.95
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
2.46
41%
Home win
2.91
34%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
16%
6.33
7%
14.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 10.4 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.1 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Muangthong United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Muangthong United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Muangthong United and 0.95 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Muangthong United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Muangthong United's recent record stands at 18W 12D 26L from 56 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Muangthong United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC, meanwhile, have gone 12W 17D 27L across 56 games — 0.95 PPG, with L-D-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Nakhon Ratchasima FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Muangthong United on 1.18 PPG, Nakhon Ratchasima FC on 0.95. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Muangthong United have managed 13W 5D 9L from 27 games — 1.63 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.18 PPG overall — Muangthong United are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's away record stands at 4W 7D 16L across 27 trips, a 0.70 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Muangthong United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Muangthong United are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Nakhon Ratchasima FC are on 0.95 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Muangthong United
Blended
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Muangthong United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC in coming into this match?
Muangthong United have gone 18W 12D 26L in their last 56 games (1.18 PPG), while Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 12W 17D 27L in their last 56 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Muangthong United at home or Nakhon Ratchasima FC away?
Muangthong United's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Muangthong United at home: 1.63 PPG; Nakhon Ratchasima FC away: 0.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Nov 2021, when Muangthong United won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Muangthong United's record when hosting Nakhon Ratchasima FC specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Muangthong United
2
Draws
2
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Muangthong United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Muangthong United have won 4, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Muangthong United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Muangthong United 2-1 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Who has won more matches between Muangthong United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Muangthong United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Muangthong United see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Muangthong United 52%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Muangthong United) and 48% (Nakhon Ratchasima FC).
On the defensive side: Muangthong United keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Muangthong United home games / Nakhon Ratchasima FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Muangthong United play Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Muangthong United's recent matches and 44% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Muangthong United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Muangthong United's recent games and 48% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Muangthong United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC tend to score early?
Muangthong United have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Muangthong United edge out Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Muangthong United beat Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2-1 at Thunderdome Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Muangthong United 1.26 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.95 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Muangthong United attack 0.79 / defence 1.10 against Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.78 / defence 1.10, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Muangthong United 41% | Draw 34% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 25%, with Muangthong United to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Muangthong United 54%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Muangthong United's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Muangthong United 1.18 PPG, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Muangthong United win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.