Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Ratchaburi (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Lamphun Warrior face Ratchaburi.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lamphun Warrior and Ratchaburi meet at 700th Anniversary Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 24 December 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Lamphun Warrior's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 1W 6D 3L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Lamphun Warrior have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at 700th Anniversary Stadium, Lamphun Warrior have gone 2W 6D 2L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ratchaburi have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Ratchaburi have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ratchaburi away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Ratchaburi are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Lamphun Warrior register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Ratchaburi in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Ratchaburi, who have claimed 4 wins from 8 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 3 draws.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Apr 2026, ended 1–2 with Ratchaburi winning.
It is worth noting that Ratchaburi have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Lamphun Warrior — key trading statistics (31 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Ratchaburi — key trading statistics (31 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lamphun Warrior 68% and Ratchaburi 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamphun Warrior 48% | Ratchaburi 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 1.36 xG and Ratchaburi 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.935 / defence 1.342 | Ratchaburi attack 1.065 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.091. Data: 31 Lamphun Warrior games / 31 Ratchaburi games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 33% | Draw 26% | Ratchaburi 42%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 3.03 | Draw 3.85 | Ratchaburi 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ratchaburi are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lamphun Warrior 70% | Ratchaburi 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: 700th Anniversary Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 24 Dec 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 33% | Draw 26% | Ratchaburi 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Lamphun Warrior 1.36 / Ratchaburi 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.935 / def 1.342 | Ratchaburi attack 1.065 / def 1.017 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Lamphun Warrior xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Ratchaburi xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Thursday 24 December 2026 at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
Where is Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What competition is Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi part of?
Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Lamphun Warrior a 33% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 42% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Lamphun Warrior and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Ratchaburi?
Record (8 meetings): Lamphun Warrior 1W | Draws 3 | Ratchaburi 4W.
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Ratchaburi in?
Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-D-L. Ratchaburi (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Lamphun Warrior's attack rating (0.94) and Ratchaburi's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ratchaburi's attack (1.06x) against Lamphun Warrior's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.56.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
33%
3.06
26%
3.89
42%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Lamphun Warrior xG
Total xG
2.92
1.56
Ratchaburi xG
3.06
33%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.41
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
21%
4.75
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
7%
14.51
11%
9.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.4 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.5 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.8 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Lamphun Warrior and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Lamphun Warrior and 1.56 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lamphun Warrior's recent record stands at 4W 17D 10L from 31 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with L-D-D-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ratchaburi, meanwhile, have gone 18W 5D 8L across 31 games — 1.90 PPG, with W-L-W-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Ratchaburi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ratchaburi by 0.96 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lamphun Warrior heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Lamphun Warrior have managed 2W 10D 4L from 16 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ratchaburi's away record stands at 10W 1D 5L across 16 trips, a 1.94 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ratchaburi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lamphun Warrior are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 1.81 scored and 1.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lamphun Warrior have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 31 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamphun Warrior
Early Season
Ratchaburi
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Lamphun Warrior have gone 4W 17D 10L in their last 31 games (0.94 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 18W 5D 8L in their last 31 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamphun Warrior at home or Ratchaburi away?
Ratchaburi's away record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamphun Warrior at home: 1.00 PPG; Ratchaburi away: 1.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Ratchaburi have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ratchaburi won 5-0 on 18 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lamphun Warrior have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Ratchaburi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Lamphun Warrior
3
Draws
4
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Ratchaburi?
From 8 meetings on record, Lamphun Warrior have won 1, Ratchaburi have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lamphun Warrior and Ratchaburi last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Lamphun Warrior 1-2 Ratchaburi.
Who has won more matches between Lamphun Warrior and Ratchaburi?
Ratchaburi have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Lamphun Warrior, 62% for Ratchaburi — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Lamphun Warrior) and 62% (Ratchaburi). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamphun Warrior home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamphun Warrior play Ratchaburi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Lamphun Warrior's games and 62% of Ratchaburi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Lamphun Warrior's matches and 62% of Ratchaburi's.
Do Lamphun Warrior and Ratchaburi tend to score early?
Lamphun Warrior have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Ratchaburi in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.