Khon Kaen United 2-1 Sukhothai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Khon Kaen United at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Khon Kaen United vs Sukhothai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Sukhothai FC travel to Khon Kaen Stadium to take on Khon Kaen United. The game is scheduled for Sunday 29 January 2023, 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Khon Kaen United stand at 1W 6D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D D D W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Khon Kaen United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Khon Kaen United have posted 2W 5D 3L at Khon Kaen Stadium — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Sukhothai FC — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Sukhothai FC have posted 2W 3D 3L from 8 away outings — 1.12 PPG. Away from home they average 0.88 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Khon Kaen United 0.90 PPG, Sukhothai FC 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Khon Kaen United, 0 for Sukhothai FC and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Khon Kaen United trading profile (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Sukhothai FC trading profile (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Khon Kaen United 38% versus Sukhothai FC 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Khon Kaen United 12% | Sukhothai FC 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khon Kaen United 1.11 xG and Sukhothai FC 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khon Kaen United attack 0.733 / defence 0.856 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.779 / defence 1.127. League average goals — home 1.348 / away 1.233. Khon Kaen United's attack strength of 0.733 is below the league average — the 1.11 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 46 Khon Kaen United games / 16 Sukhothai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khon Kaen United 41% | Draw 33% | Sukhothai FC 26%. Fair-value odds: Khon Kaen United 2.44 | Draw 3.03 | Sukhothai FC 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Khon Kaen United as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Khon Kaen United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.94 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Khon Kaen United 30% | Sukhothai FC 62%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khon Kaen United vs Sukhothai FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Khon Kaen Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Jan 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khon Kaen United 41% | Draw 33% | Sukhothai FC 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Khon Kaen United 1.11 / Sukhothai FC 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Khon Kaen United attack 0.733 / def 0.856 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.779 / def 1.127 | league avg home 1.348 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Khon Kaen United (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Khon Kaen United xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Sukhothai FC xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khon Kaen United vs Sukhothai FC kick off?
Khon Kaen United vs Sukhothai FC kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 29 January 2023 at Khon Kaen Stadium.
What was the final score in Khon Kaen United vs Sukhothai FC?
Khon Kaen United 2 - 1 Sukhothai FC.
Where is Khon Kaen United vs Sukhothai FC being played?
The match is being played at Khon Kaen Stadium.
What competition is Khon Kaen United vs Sukhothai FC part of?
Khon Kaen United vs Sukhothai FC is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Khon Kaen United vs Sukhothai FC?
Our statistical model gives Khon Kaen United a 41% chance of winning, Sukhothai FC a 26% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Khon Kaen United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khon Kaen United vs Sukhothai FC?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Khon Kaen United and Sukhothai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Khon Kaen United vs Sukhothai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khon Kaen United and Sukhothai FC?
Record (1 meetings): Khon Kaen United 0W | Draws 1 | Sukhothai FC 0W.
What form are Khon Kaen United and Sukhothai FC in?
Khon Kaen United (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-D-W. Sukhothai FC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Khon Kaen United's attack rating (0.73) and Sukhothai FC's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sukhothai FC's attack versus Khon Kaen United's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Khon Kaen United Win
41%
2.42
33%
3.06
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Khon Kaen United xG
Total xG
1.94
0.82
Sukhothai FC xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.60
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
18%
5.50
9%
11.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.4 | 11.9 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.1 | 13.2 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khon Kaen United vs Sukhothai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Khon Kaen United and Sukhothai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Khon Kaen United and 0.82 for Sukhothai FC, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Khon Kaen United vs Sukhothai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Khon Kaen United come into this having played 16 games, going 2W 8D 6L for 0.88 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-D-W. The sample for Khon Kaen United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sukhothai FC sit at 1.12 PPG from 16 outings (4W 6D 6L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Sukhothai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Khon Kaen United on 0.88 PPG, Sukhothai FC on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Khon Kaen United's home form reads 1W 4D 2L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Sukhothai FC have taken 1.29 points per game from 7 outings (2W 3D 2L).
The Goals Picture
Khon Kaen United are averaging 0.56 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Sukhothai FC are on 0.62 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Defensively: Sukhothai FC in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khon Kaen United
Blended
Sukhothai FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khon Kaen United and Sukhothai FC in coming into this match?
Khon Kaen United have gone 2W 8D 6L in their last 16 games (0.88 PPG), while Sukhothai FC have gone 4W 6D 6L in their last 16 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khon Kaen United at home or Sukhothai FC away?
Sukhothai FC's away record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khon Kaen United at home: 1.00 PPG; Sukhothai FC away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Khon Kaen United or Sukhothai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Khon Kaen United have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Sukhothai FC in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Khon Kaen United and Sukhothai FC runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 May 2024, when Khon Kaen United won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Khon Kaen United's record when hosting Sukhothai FC specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Khon Kaen United
2
Draws
1
Sukhothai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khon Kaen United and Sukhothai FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Khon Kaen United have won 3, Sukhothai FC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Khon Kaen United and Sukhothai FC last play each other?
They last met on 11 January 2025, when Sukhothai FC 1-0 Khon Kaen United.
Who has won more matches between Khon Kaen United and Sukhothai FC?
Khon Kaen United have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Khon Kaen United see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Sukhothai FC see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Khon Kaen United 29%, Sukhothai FC 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 14% for Khon Kaen United and 14% for Sukhothai FC.
On the defensive side: Khon Kaen United keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Khon Kaen United have failed to score in 57% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khon Kaen United home games / Sukhothai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khon Kaen United play Sukhothai FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Khon Kaen United's recent matches and 57% of Sukhothai FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Khon Kaen United vs Sukhothai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 14% of Khon Kaen United's recent games and 14% of Sukhothai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Khon Kaen United edge out Sukhothai FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khon Kaen United beat Sukhothai FC 2-1 at Khon Kaen Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khon Kaen United 1.11 xG and Sukhothai FC 0.82 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Khon Kaen United beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khon Kaen United attack 0.73 / defence 0.86 against Sukhothai FC attack 0.78 / defence 1.13, drawn from 46/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khon Kaen United 41% | Draw 33% | Sukhothai FC 26%, with Khon Kaen United to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 22% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khon Kaen United 12%, Sukhothai FC 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khon Kaen United's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Khon Kaen United 0.88 PPG, Sukhothai FC 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Khon Kaen United win broke the near-deadlock. Khon Kaen United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.43 average — above their attacking norm. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.