Khon Kaen United 0-1 Bangkok United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bangkok United at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Khon Kaen United vs Bangkok United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Khon Kaen United and Bangkok United meet at Khon Kaen Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 14 November 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Khon Kaen United have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Khon Kaen United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Khon Kaen United's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 2L across 6 games at Khon Kaen Stadium this term (1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Bangkok United (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W L D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Bangkok United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bangkok United away from home this season: 4W 0D 2L from 6 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.83 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
On a straight form reading, Bangkok United are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
Khon Kaen United half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Bangkok United half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Khon Kaen United 50% versus Bangkok United 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khon Kaen United 42% | Bangkok United 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khon Kaen United 0.83 xG and Bangkok United 1.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khon Kaen United attack 0.756 / defence 1.481 | Bangkok United attack 1.142 / defence 1.058. League average goals — home 1.034 / away 1.160. Khon Kaen United's attack strength of 0.756 is below the league average — the 0.83 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 12 Khon Kaen United games / 12 Bangkok United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khon Kaen United 15% | Draw 21% | Bangkok United 64%. Fair-value odds: Khon Kaen United 6.67 | Draw 4.76 | Bangkok United 1.56. The model has a clear lean to Bangkok United (64%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bangkok United at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Khon Kaen United 50% | Bangkok United 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khon Kaen United vs Bangkok United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Khon Kaen Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Nov 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khon Kaen United 15% | Draw 21% | Bangkok United 64% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 48% | xG Khon Kaen United 0.83 / Bangkok United 1.96 • Poisson strength factors: Khon Kaen United attack 0.756 / def 1.481 | Bangkok United attack 1.142 / def 1.058 | league avg home 1.034 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Bangkok United (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Khon Kaen United xG
Expected Goals
1.96
Bangkok United xG
48%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khon Kaen United vs Bangkok United kick off?
Khon Kaen United vs Bangkok United kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 14 November 2021 at Khon Kaen Stadium.
What was the final score in Khon Kaen United vs Bangkok United?
Khon Kaen United 0 - 1 Bangkok United.
Where is Khon Kaen United vs Bangkok United being played?
The match is being played at Khon Kaen Stadium.
What competition is Khon Kaen United vs Bangkok United part of?
Khon Kaen United vs Bangkok United is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Khon Kaen United vs Bangkok United?
Our statistical model gives Khon Kaen United a 15% chance of winning, Bangkok United a 64% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Bangkok United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khon Kaen United vs Bangkok United?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Khon Kaen United and Bangkok United will score (BTTS).
Will Khon Kaen United vs Bangkok United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khon Kaen United and Bangkok United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Khon Kaen United and Bangkok United in?
Khon Kaen United (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Bangkok United (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Khon Kaen United's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Bangkok United's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.83. Flip it around — Bangkok United's attack (1.14x) against Khon Kaen United's defence (1.48x) — and the away total comes out at 1.96.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.3%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bangkok United Win
15%
6.64
21%
4.76
64%
1.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.8%
Away win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Khon Kaen United xG
Total xG
2.79
1.96
Bangkok United xG
6.64
15%
Home win
4.76
21%
Draw
1.56
64%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
14%
7.11
44%
2.29
Win to Nil
2%
47.22
28%
3.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 12.1 | 11.8 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 10.0 | 9.8 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khon Kaen United vs Bangkok United?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Khon Kaen United and Bangkok United expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Khon Kaen United and 1.96 for Bangkok United, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Khon Kaen United vs Bangkok United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Khon Kaen United's recent record stands at 4W 2D 6L from 12 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Khon Kaen United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bangkok United, meanwhile, have gone 8W 2D 2L across 12 games — 2.17 PPG, with W-L-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Bangkok United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bangkok United by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Khon Kaen United heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Khon Kaen United have managed 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bangkok United's away record stands at 4W 0D 2L across 6 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bangkok United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Khon Kaen United are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Bangkok United are on 1.92 scored and 0.75 conceded.
Defensively: Bangkok United in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khon Kaen United
Blended
Bangkok United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khon Kaen United and Bangkok United in coming into this match?
Khon Kaen United have gone 4W 2D 6L in their last 12 games (1.17 PPG), while Bangkok United have gone 8W 2D 2L in their last 12 (2.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khon Kaen United at home or Bangkok United away?
Bangkok United's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khon Kaen United at home: 1.33 PPG; Bangkok United away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Khon Kaen United or Bangkok United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Khon Kaen United have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Bangkok United in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Bangkok United have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bangkok United won 5-0 on 30 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Khon Kaen United have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Bangkok United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Khon Kaen United
3
Draws
5
Bangkok United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khon Kaen United and Bangkok United?
From 8 meetings on record, Khon Kaen United have won 0, Bangkok United have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Khon Kaen United and Bangkok United last play each other?
They last met on 30 March 2025, when Bangkok United 5-0 Khon Kaen United.
Who has won more matches between Khon Kaen United and Bangkok United?
Bangkok United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Khon Kaen United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Bangkok United see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Khon Kaen United 50%, Bangkok United 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Khon Kaen United) and 67% (Bangkok United).
On the defensive side: Bangkok United in 33%; Khon Kaen United have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khon Kaen United home games / Bangkok United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khon Kaen United play Bangkok United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Khon Kaen United's recent matches and 50% of Bangkok United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Khon Kaen United vs Bangkok United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Khon Kaen United's recent games and 67% of Bangkok United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Khon Kaen United and Bangkok United tend to score early?
Khon Kaen United have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Bangkok United in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bangkok United edge out Khon Kaen United 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bangkok United beat Khon Kaen United 0-1 at Khon Kaen Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khon Kaen United 0.83 xG and Bangkok United 1.96 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Khon Kaen United fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Bangkok United landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khon Kaen United attack 0.76 / defence 1.48 against Bangkok United attack 1.14 / defence 1.06, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khon Kaen United 15% | Draw 21% | Bangkok United 64%, with Bangkok United to win its most likely call at 64%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khon Kaen United 42%, Bangkok United 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khon Kaen United's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bangkok United's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Bangkok United arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Khon Kaen United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Bangkok United (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.