Chonburi FC vs Sisaket United – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Chonburi FC at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chonburi FC vs Sisaket United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Sisaket United travel to IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium to take on Chonburi FC. The game is scheduled for Friday 19 February 2027, 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Chonburi FC have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Chonburi FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium, Chonburi FC have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Chonburi FC are significantly better at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Sisaket United — All Games: 0W 0D 1L from 1 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 3.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Sisaket United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Chonburi FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.40 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Chonburi FC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Sisaket United in 100% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 1.91 xG and Sisaket United 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 1.032 / defence 0.957 | Sisaket United attack 0.856 / defence 1.297. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.091. Sisaket United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.297 — this is suppressing Chonburi FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Chonburi FC games / 1 Sisaket United games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 61% | Draw 23% | Sisaket United 16%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 1.64 | Draw 4.35 | Sisaket United 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Chonburi FC (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chonburi FC as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chonburi FC vs Sisaket United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 19 Feb 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chonburi FC 61% | Draw 23% | Sisaket United 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 51% | xG Chonburi FC 1.91 / Sisaket United 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Chonburi FC attack 1.032 / def 0.957 | Sisaket United attack 0.856 / def 1.297 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Chonburi FC (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Chonburi FC xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Sisaket United xG
51%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chonburi FC vs Sisaket United kick off?
Chonburi FC vs Sisaket United is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Friday 19 February 2027 at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium.
Where is Chonburi FC vs Sisaket United being played?
The match is being played at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium.
What competition is Chonburi FC vs Sisaket United part of?
Chonburi FC vs Sisaket United is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chonburi FC vs Sisaket United?
Our statistical model gives Chonburi FC a 61% chance of winning, Sisaket United a 16% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Chonburi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chonburi FC vs Sisaket United?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Chonburi FC and Sisaket United will score (BTTS).
Will Chonburi FC vs Sisaket United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Sisaket United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chonburi FC and Sisaket United in?
Chonburi FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Sisaket United (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Chonburi FC's attack at 1.03x the league average against Sisaket United's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.91 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sisaket United's attack versus Chonburi FC's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chonburi FC Win
61%
1.65
23%
4.39
16%
6.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Chonburi FC xG
Total xG
2.80
0.89
Sisaket United xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
6.06
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
15%
6.77
Win to Nil
25%
4.02
2%
41.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.6 | 10.3 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chonburi FC vs Sisaket United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Chonburi FC and Sisaket United expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Chonburi FC and 0.89 for Sisaket United, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Chonburi FC vs Sisaket United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Chonburi FC come into this having played 1 games, going 0W 0D 1L for 0.00 points per game. Their last five reads L. It's still early in the season for Chonburi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Sisaket United sit at 0.00 PPG from 1 outings (0W 0D 1L), a run that reads L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Sisaket United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chonburi FC on 0.00 PPG, Sisaket United on 0.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Chonburi FC are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Sisaket United are on 1.00 scored and 3.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chonburi FC have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Sisaket United in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chonburi FC
Early Season
Sisaket United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chonburi FC and Sisaket United in coming into this match?
Chonburi FC have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Sisaket United have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chonburi FC home games / Sisaket United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chonburi FC play Sisaket United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Chonburi FC's recent matches and 100% of Sisaket United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chonburi FC vs Sisaket United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Chonburi FC's recent games and 100% of Sisaket United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chonburi FC and Sisaket United tend to score early?
Chonburi FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Sisaket United in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.