Chonburi FC vs Port FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chonburi FC at 39%, yet in-form Port FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Chonburi FC vs Port FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Port FC travel to IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium to take on Chonburi FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 March 2027, 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Chonburi FC — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Chonburi FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Chonburi FC at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Chonburi FC are significantly better at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Port FC have recorded 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Port FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Port FC have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Port FC — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Chonburi FC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Port FC in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for Chonburi FC, 4 for Port FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 31 Jan 2026, ended 3–2 with Chonburi FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Chonburi FC trading profile (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Port FC trading profile (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chonburi FC 55% versus Port FC 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chonburi FC 45% | Port FC 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 1.36 xG and Port FC 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 1.032 / defence 0.957 | Port FC attack 1.185 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.091. Data: 31 Chonburi FC games / 31 Port FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 39% | Draw 28% | Port FC 33%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Port FC 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chonburi FC as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Port FC (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chonburi FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Chonburi FC 60% | Port FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chonburi FC vs Port FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Mar 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chonburi FC 39% | Draw 28% | Port FC 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Chonburi FC 1.36 / Port FC 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Chonburi FC attack 1.032 / def 0.957 | Port FC attack 1.185 / def 0.923 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Chonburi FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Chonburi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Port FC xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chonburi FC vs Port FC kick off?
Chonburi FC vs Port FC is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Saturday 20 March 2027 at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium.
Where is Chonburi FC vs Port FC being played?
The match is being played at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium.
What competition is Chonburi FC vs Port FC part of?
Chonburi FC vs Port FC is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chonburi FC vs Port FC?
Our statistical model gives Chonburi FC a 39% chance of winning, Port FC a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Chonburi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chonburi FC vs Port FC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Chonburi FC and Port FC will score (BTTS).
Will Chonburi FC vs Port FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Port FC?
Record (8 meetings): Chonburi FC 4W | Draws 0 | Port FC 4W.
What form are Chonburi FC and Port FC in?
Chonburi FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Port FC (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Chonburi FC's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Port FC's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. The same calculation in reverse, Port FC's attack versus Chonburi FC's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 2-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chonburi FC Win
39%
2.56
28%
3.62
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Chonburi FC xG
Total xG
2.60
1.24
Port FC xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
11%
8.82
9%
11.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 9.2 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.5 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chonburi FC vs Port FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Chonburi FC and Port FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Chonburi FC and 1.24 for Port FC, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Chonburi FC vs Port FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Chonburi FC come into this having played 31 games, going 10W 9D 12L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Chonburi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Port FC sit at 2.03 PPG from 31 outings (19W 6D 6L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Port FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Port FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.77 PPG clear of Chonburi FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Chonburi FC's home form reads 6W 5D 4L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, Port FC have taken 1.73 points per game from 15 outings (8W 2D 5L).
The Goals Picture
Chonburi FC are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Port FC are on 1.97 scored and 0.77 conceded.
Defensively: Port FC in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chonburi FC
Early Season
Port FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chonburi FC and Port FC in coming into this match?
Chonburi FC have gone 10W 9D 12L in their last 31 games (1.26 PPG), while Port FC have gone 19W 6D 6L in their last 31 (2.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chonburi FC at home or Port FC away?
Port FC's away record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chonburi FC at home: 1.53 PPG; Port FC away: 1.73 PPG.
Have Chonburi FC or Port FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chonburi FC have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Port FC in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chonburi FC and Port FC runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Sep 2025, when Port FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chonburi FC's record when hosting Port FC specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Chonburi FC
0
Draws
4
Port FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Port FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Chonburi FC have won 4, Port FC have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chonburi FC and Port FC last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Chonburi FC 3-2 Port FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chonburi FC see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chonburi FC 60%, Port FC 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Chonburi FC) and 40% (Port FC).
On the defensive side: Port FC in 33%; Chonburi FC have failed to score in 27% of games; Port FC in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chonburi FC home games / Port FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chonburi FC play Port FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Chonburi FC's recent matches and 47% of Port FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chonburi FC vs Port FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Chonburi FC's recent games and 40% of Port FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chonburi FC and Port FC tend to score early?
Chonburi FC have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Port FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.