Chiangrai United 1-1 Port FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chiangrai United at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chiangrai United vs Port FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Port FC make the trip to Singha Chiangrai Stadium to face Chiangrai United in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Sunday 26 November 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Chiangrai United's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Chiangrai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Singha Chiangrai Stadium, Chiangrai United have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Port FC have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Port FC's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Chiangrai United have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Port FC in 100%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Chiangrai United lead 0W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2023, ended 2–3 with Port FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Chiangrai United — key trading statistics (39 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 38% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Port FC — key trading statistics (39 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chiangrai United 67% and Port FC 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chiangrai United 56% | Port FC 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 1.54 xG and Port FC 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 0.924 / defence 0.744 | Port FC attack 1.307 / defence 1.024. League average goals — home 1.634 / away 1.256. Port FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.307 — the away xG of 1.22 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Chiangrai United's defence rating of 0.744 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 39 Chiangrai United games / 40 Port FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 44% | Draw 26% | Port FC 30%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Port FC 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Chiangrai United as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chiangrai United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Chiangrai United 60% | Port FC 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chiangrai United vs Port FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Singha Chiangrai Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Nov 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chiangrai United 44% | Draw 26% | Port FC 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Chiangrai United 1.54 / Port FC 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Chiangrai United attack 0.924 / def 0.744 | Port FC attack 1.307 / def 1.024 | league avg home 1.634 / away 1.256 • Poisson stance: Chiangrai United (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Chiangrai United xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Port FC xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chiangrai United vs Port FC kick off?
Chiangrai United vs Port FC kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 26 November 2023 at Singha Chiangrai Stadium.
What was the final score in Chiangrai United vs Port FC?
Chiangrai United 1 - 1 Port FC.
Where is Chiangrai United vs Port FC being played?
The match is being played at Singha Chiangrai Stadium.
What competition is Chiangrai United vs Port FC part of?
Chiangrai United vs Port FC is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chiangrai United vs Port FC?
Our statistical model gives Chiangrai United a 44% chance of winning, Port FC a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Chiangrai United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chiangrai United vs Port FC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Chiangrai United and Port FC will score (BTTS).
Will Chiangrai United vs Port FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Port FC?
Record (4 meetings): Chiangrai United 0W | Draws 2 | Port FC 2W.
What form are Chiangrai United and Port FC in?
Chiangrai United (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. Port FC (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Chiangrai United's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Port FC's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. Flip it around — Port FC's attack (1.31x) against Chiangrai United's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 39/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chiangrai United Win
44%
2.26
26%
3.82
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Chiangrai United xG
Total xG
2.77
1.22
Port FC xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
21%
4.69
Win to Nil
13%
7.67
6%
15.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.9 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chiangrai United vs Port FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Chiangrai United and Port FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Chiangrai United and 1.22 for Port FC, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Chiangrai United vs Port FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Chiangrai United come into this having played 39 games, going 16W 11D 12L for 1.51 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-D. The sample for Chiangrai United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Port FC sit at 1.79 PPG from 39 outings (20W 10D 9L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Port FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.51 PPG for Chiangrai United against 1.79 for Port FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Chiangrai United's home form reads 11W 6D 3L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.95 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.51 PPG overall — Chiangrai United are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Port FC have taken 1.40 points per game from 20 outings (7W 7D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chiangrai United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Chiangrai United are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Port FC are on 2.03 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chiangrai United have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Port FC in 79%.
Last 39 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chiangrai United
Blended
Port FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chiangrai United and Port FC in coming into this match?
Chiangrai United have gone 16W 11D 12L in their last 39 games (1.51 PPG), while Port FC have gone 20W 10D 9L in their last 39 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chiangrai United at home or Port FC away?
Chiangrai United's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chiangrai United at home: 1.95 PPG; Port FC away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Chiangrai United or Port FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chiangrai United have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Port FC in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Port FC won 0-4 on 14 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chiangrai United have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Port FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Chiangrai United
4
Draws
4
Port FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Port FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Chiangrai United have won 2, Port FC have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Chiangrai United and Port FC last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Chiangrai United 1-2 Port FC.
Who has won more matches between Chiangrai United and Port FC?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 65% for Chiangrai United, 80% for Port FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Chiangrai United) and 65% (Port FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chiangrai United keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chiangrai United home games / Port FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chiangrai United play Port FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Chiangrai United's games and 80% of Port FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chiangrai United vs Port FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Chiangrai United's matches and 65% of Port FC's.
Do Chiangrai United and Port FC tend to score early?
Chiangrai United have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Port FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chiangrai United and Port FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chiangrai United and Port FC finished level at 1-1 at Singha Chiangrai Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangrai United 1.54 xG and Port FC 1.22 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangrai United attack 0.92 / defence 0.74 against Port FC attack 1.31 / defence 1.02, drawn from 39/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chiangrai United 44% | Draw 26% | Port FC 30%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangrai United 56%, Port FC 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 73%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chiangrai United's trading profile (39 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Port FC's trading profile (39 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chiangrai United 1.51 PPG, Port FC 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.