Yverdon Sport 3-2 FC Zurich – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Yverdon Sport at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Yverdon Sport vs FC Zurich fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Zurich make the trip to Stade Municipal to face Yverdon Sport in Super League, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Saturday 9 March 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Yverdon Sport (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Yverdon Sport, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Yverdon Sport's home record at Stade Municipal: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
FC Zurich's overall Super League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for FC Zurich, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC Zurich have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Yverdon Sport lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Feb 2024, ended 3–0 with Yverdon Sport winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Yverdon Sport — key trading statistics (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games).
FC Zurich — key trading statistics (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Yverdon Sport 69% versus FC Zurich 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Yverdon Sport 69% | FC Zurich 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Yverdon Sport 1.42 xG and FC Zurich 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yverdon Sport attack 1.023 / defence 1.203 | FC Zurich attack 0.836 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.169. Data: 26 Yverdon Sport games / 62 FC Zurich games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Yverdon Sport 42% | Draw 26% | FC Zurich 31%. Fair-value odds: Yverdon Sport 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | FC Zurich 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Yverdon Sport as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Yverdon Sport if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. This conflicts with form data: Yverdon Sport 50% | FC Zurich 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Yverdon Sport vs FC Zurich | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stade Municipal • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Mar 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Yverdon Sport 42% | Draw 26% | FC Zurich 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Yverdon Sport 1.42 / FC Zurich 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Yverdon Sport attack 1.023 / def 1.203 | FC Zurich attack 0.836 / def 0.980 | league avg home 1.412 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Yverdon Sport (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Yverdon Sport xG
Expected Goals
1.18
FC Zurich xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Yverdon Sport vs FC Zurich kick off?
Yverdon Sport vs FC Zurich kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 9 March 2024 at Stade Municipal.
What was the final score in Yverdon Sport vs FC Zurich?
Yverdon Sport 3 - 2 FC Zurich.
Where is Yverdon Sport vs FC Zurich being played?
The match is being played at Stade Municipal.
What competition is Yverdon Sport vs FC Zurich part of?
Yverdon Sport vs FC Zurich is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Yverdon Sport vs FC Zurich?
Our statistical model gives Yverdon Sport a 42% chance of winning, FC Zurich a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Yverdon Sport the favourite.
Will both teams score in Yverdon Sport vs FC Zurich?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Yverdon Sport and FC Zurich will score (BTTS).
Will Yverdon Sport vs FC Zurich have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Yverdon Sport and FC Zurich?
Record (2 meetings): Yverdon Sport 1W | Draws 0 | FC Zurich 1W.
What form are Yverdon Sport and FC Zurich in?
Yverdon Sport (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. FC Zurich (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Yverdon Sport's attack rating (1.02) and FC Zurich's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Zurich's attack (0.84x) against Yverdon Sport's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 26/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Yverdon Sport Win
42%
2.35
26%
3.81
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Yverdon Sport xG
Total xG
2.59
1.18
FC Zurich xG
2.35
42%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
13%
7.63
8%
13.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.5 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Yverdon Sport vs FC Zurich?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Yverdon Sport and FC Zurich expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Yverdon Sport and 1.18 for FC Zurich, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Yverdon Sport vs FC Zurich?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 26 outings, Yverdon Sport have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 8W 6D 12L record — W-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Yverdon Sport is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Zurich's form line: 11W 9D 6L from 26 games, 1.62 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-W. The sample for FC Zurich is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, FC Zurich are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Yverdon Sport.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Yverdon Sport have posted 1.85 PPG from 13 outings (7W 3D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.15 PPG overall — Yverdon Sport are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, FC Zurich have gone 4W 4D 5L from 13 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Yverdon Sport come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Yverdon Sport are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; FC Zurich are on 1.42 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Yverdon Sport have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Defensively: FC Zurich in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Yverdon Sport
Blended
FC Zurich
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Yverdon Sport and FC Zurich in coming into this match?
Yverdon Sport have gone 8W 6D 12L in their last 26 games (1.15 PPG), while FC Zurich have gone 11W 9D 6L in their last 26 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Yverdon Sport at home or FC Zurich away?
Yverdon Sport's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Yverdon Sport at home: 1.85 PPG; FC Zurich away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Yverdon Sport or FC Zurich been keeping clean sheets recently?
Yverdon Sport have kept a clean sheet in 8% of their recent games, FC Zurich in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Yverdon Sport won 3-0 on 4 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Yverdon Sport have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against FC Zurich — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Yverdon Sport
0
Draws
4
FC Zurich
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Yverdon Sport and FC Zurich?
From 7 meetings on record, Yverdon Sport have won 3, FC Zurich have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Yverdon Sport and FC Zurich last play each other?
They last met on 22 May 2025, when Yverdon Sport 3-2 FC Zurich.
Who has won more matches between Yverdon Sport and FC Zurich?
FC Zurich have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Yverdon Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
FC Zurich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Yverdon Sport 62%, FC Zurich 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for Yverdon Sport and 62% for FC Zurich. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Zurich in 38%; FC Zurich in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Yverdon Sport home games / FC Zurich away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Yverdon Sport play FC Zurich?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Yverdon Sport's recent matches and 38% of FC Zurich's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Yverdon Sport vs FC Zurich usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Yverdon Sport's matches and 62% of FC Zurich's.
Do Yverdon Sport and FC Zurich tend to score early?
Yverdon Sport have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, FC Zurich in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Yverdon Sport edge out FC Zurich 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Yverdon Sport beat FC Zurich 3-2 at Stade Municipal, Regular Season - 27, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Yverdon Sport 1.42 xG and FC Zurich 1.18 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Yverdon Sport beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Zurich outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yverdon Sport attack 1.02 / defence 1.20 against FC Zurich attack 0.84 / defence 0.98, drawn from 26/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Yverdon Sport 42% | Draw 26% | FC Zurich 31%, with Yverdon Sport to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Yverdon Sport 69%, FC Zurich 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Yverdon Sport's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
FC Zurich's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Zurich arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.15. Form was overturned, with Yverdon Sport winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Yverdon Sport (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.69 average — above their attacking norm. FC Zurich (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.