FC Sion 0-1 FC Thun – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Thun at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Sion vs FC Thun encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC Sion and FC Thun meet at Stade de Tourbillon in Super League, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 25 October 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
FC Sion (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for FC Sion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Sion's home record at Stade de Tourbillon: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Super League appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC Thun have collected 2.11 PPG across 9 Super League outings this season: 6W 1D 2L. Last five: D L L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.11 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 89% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for FC Thun, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Thun away from home this season: 4W 0D 1L from 5 away games — 2.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
FC Thun arrive in superior form — a 0.61 PPG advantage (2.11 vs 1.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — FC Sion have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, FC Thun in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
FC Sion half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 44% of games.
FC Thun half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Sion 33% and FC Thun 89% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Sion 44% | FC Thun 89%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Sion 1.31 xG and FC Thun 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Sion attack 0.743 / defence 0.831 | FC Thun attack 1.241 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.734 / away 1.438. FC Sion's attack strength of 0.743 is below the league average — the 1.31 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. FC Thun have an above-average attack strength of 1.241 — the away xG of 1.48 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 42 FC Sion games / 9 FC Thun games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Sion 33% | Draw 25% | FC Thun 41%. Fair-value odds: FC Sion 3.03 | Draw 4.00 | FC Thun 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Thun at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Thun if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Sion 60% | FC Thun 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Sion vs FC Thun | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stade de Tourbillon • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Oct 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Sion 33% | Draw 25% | FC Thun 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG FC Sion 1.31 / FC Thun 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: FC Sion attack 0.743 / def 0.831 | FC Thun attack 1.241 / def 1.017 | league avg home 1.734 / away 1.438 • Poisson stance: FC Thun (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
FC Sion xG
Expected Goals
1.48
FC Thun xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Sion vs FC Thun kick off?
FC Sion vs FC Thun kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 25 October 2025 at Stade de Tourbillon.
What was the final score in FC Sion vs FC Thun?
FC Sion 0 - 1 FC Thun.
Where is FC Sion vs FC Thun being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Tourbillon.
What competition is FC Sion vs FC Thun part of?
FC Sion vs FC Thun is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Sion vs FC Thun?
Our statistical model gives FC Sion a 33% chance of winning, FC Thun a 41% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making FC Thun the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Sion vs FC Thun?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both FC Sion and FC Thun will score (BTTS).
Will FC Sion vs FC Thun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and FC Thun?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Sion and FC Thun in?
FC Sion (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. FC Thun (all comps): 6W-1D-2L in 9 | 2.11 PPG | GF 2.11 / GA 1.44 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from FC Sion's attack rating (0.74) and FC Thun's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Thun's attack (1.24x) against FC Sion's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from 42/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Thun Win
33%
2.99
25%
3.93
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
FC Sion xG
Total xG
2.79
1.48
FC Thun xG
2.99
33%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
23%
4.40
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
8%
13.18
11%
9.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.9 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.8 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Sion vs FC Thun?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are FC Sion and FC Thun expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for FC Sion and 1.48 for FC Thun, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Sion vs FC Thun?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 9 outings, FC Sion have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 4W 3D 2L record — W-L-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for FC Sion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Thun's form line: 6W 1D 2L from 9 games, 2.11 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-W. The sample for FC Thun is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, FC Thun are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Sion.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, FC Sion have posted 1.00 PPG from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L). That actually lags their 1.67 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, FC Thun have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 away games — 2.25 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Thun come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Sion are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; FC Thun are on 2.11 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Thun in 89%.
Defensively: FC Sion have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Sion
Blended
FC Thun
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Sion and FC Thun in coming into this match?
FC Sion have gone 4W 3D 2L in their last 9 games (1.67 PPG), while FC Thun have gone 6W 1D 2L in their last 9 (2.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Sion at home or FC Thun away?
FC Thun's away record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Sion at home: 1.00 PPG; FC Thun away: 2.25 PPG.
Have FC Sion or FC Thun been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Sion have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, FC Thun in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since October 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 6 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
FC Sion have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Sion have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against FC Thun — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
FC Sion
0
Draws
3
FC Thun
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and FC Thun?
From 5 meetings on record, FC Sion have won 2, FC Thun have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Sion and FC Thun last play each other?
They last met on 6 September 2026, when FC Sion 3-2 FC Thun.
Who has won more matches between FC Sion and FC Thun?
FC Thun have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Sion see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
FC Thun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Sion 0%, FC Thun 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 25% for FC Sion and 100% for FC Thun. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Sion keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; FC Sion have failed to score in 75% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Sion home games / FC Thun away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Sion play FC Thun?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of FC Sion's recent matches and 75% of FC Thun's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Sion vs FC Thun usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 25% of FC Sion's matches and 100% of FC Thun's.
Do FC Sion and FC Thun tend to score early?
FC Sion have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, FC Thun in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Thun edge out FC Sion 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Thun beat FC Sion 0-1 at Stade de Tourbillon, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sion 1.31 xG and FC Thun 1.48 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC Sion fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sion attack 0.74 / defence 0.83 against FC Thun attack 1.24 / defence 1.02, drawn from 42/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Sion 33% | Draw 25% | FC Thun 41%, with FC Thun to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sion 44%, FC Thun 89%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Sion's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Thun's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 89% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Thun arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.67. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC Sion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Thun (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.