Umeå FC 0-1 IK brage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IK brage at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Umeå FC vs IK brage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Umeå FC and IK brage meet at Umea Energi Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 27 April 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
IK brage have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
IK brage's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Umeå FC 1.01 xG and IK brage 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Umeå FC attack 0.823 / defence 1.243 | IK brage attack 1.056 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.343 / away 1.106. Data: 4 Umeå FC games / 34 IK brage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Umeå FC 26% | Draw 26% | IK brage 47%. Fair-value odds: Umeå FC 3.85 | Draw 3.85 | IK brage 2.13. IK brage hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IK brage at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IK brage if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Umeå FC vs IK brage | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Umea Energi Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Apr 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Umeå FC 26% | Draw 26% | IK brage 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Umeå FC 1.01 / IK brage 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Umeå FC attack 0.823 / def 1.243 | IK brage attack 1.056 / def 0.918 | league avg home 1.343 / away 1.106 • Poisson stance: IK brage (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Umeå FC xG
Expected Goals
1.45
IK brage xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Umeå FC vs IK brage kick off?
Umeå FC vs IK brage kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 27 April 2025 at Umea Energi Arena.
What was the final score in Umeå FC vs IK brage?
Umeå FC 0 - 1 IK brage.
Where is Umeå FC vs IK brage being played?
The match is being played at Umea Energi Arena.
What competition is Umeå FC vs IK brage part of?
Umeå FC vs IK brage is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Umeå FC vs IK brage?
Our statistical model gives Umeå FC a 26% chance of winning, IK brage a 47% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making IK brage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Umeå FC vs IK brage?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Umeå FC and IK brage will score (BTTS).
Will Umeå FC vs IK brage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Umeå FC and IK brage?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Umeå FC and IK brage in?
IK brage (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. IK brage away split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Umeå FC's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against IK brage's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.01. Flip it around — IK brage's attack (1.06x) against Umeå FC's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 4/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.7%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IK brage Win
26%
3.79
26%
3.78
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Umeå FC xG
Total xG
2.47
1.45
IK brage xG
3.79
26%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
23%
4.27
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
6%
16.17
17%
5.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 12.3 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.5 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.3 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Umeå FC vs IK brage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Umeå FC and IK brage expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Umeå FC and 1.45 for IK brage, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Umeå FC vs IK brage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Umeå FC
Pre-Season
IK brage
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 July 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Umeå FC
1
Draws
1
IK brage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Umeå FC and IK brage?
From 2 meetings on record, Umeå FC have won 0, IK brage have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Umeå FC and IK brage last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2025, when IK brage 2-2 Umeå FC.
Who has won more matches between Umeå FC and IK brage?
IK brage have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Umeå FC home games / IK brage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as IK brage edge out Umeå FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IK brage beat Umeå FC 0-1 at Umea Energi Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Umeå FC 1.01 xG and IK brage 1.45 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Umeå FC fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Umeå FC attack 0.82 / defence 1.24 against IK brage attack 1.06 / defence 0.92, drawn from 4/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Umeå FC 26% | Draw 26% | IK brage 47%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.