Osters IF 1-0 Orgryte IS – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Osters IF at 49% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Osters IF vs Orgryte IS encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Osters IF and Orgryte IS meet at Visma Arena in Superettan (matchday 19). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 August 2024 at 13:00 UK time.

Form

Osters IF (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Osters IF at home: 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Orgryte IS's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Orgryte IS away from home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Osters IF against 1.70 for Orgryte IS. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

Across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Osters IF have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins, with Orgryte IS managing 0 and 4 draws.

The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Apr 2024, ended Osters IF 2–2 Orgryte IS — a draw.

The head-to-head data gives Osters IF an edge — 3 wins from 7 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.

Trading

Osters IF half-time and goal-timing data (last 48 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).

Orgryte IS half-time and goal-timing data (last 48 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osters IF 60% versus Orgryte IS 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osters IF 60% | Orgryte IS 56%). Note also that Orgryte IS surrender HT leads in 40% of cases while Osters IF recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Osters IF 1.58 xG and Orgryte IS 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osters IF attack 1.061 / defence 0.800 | Orgryte IS attack 1.098 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.184. Data: built from Osters IF's last 48 games and Orgryte IS's last 48.

Result probabilities: Osters IF 49% | Draw 27% | Orgryte IS 24%. Fair-value odds: Osters IF 2.04 | Draw 3.68 | Orgryte IS 4.18. Osters IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Osters IF are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Osters IF 3 wins from 7 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Osters IF if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Osters IF 30% (last 10 home games) | Orgryte IS 60% (last 10 away games).

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